ForestHillWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Just in from letting the dogs romp in the snow. Fresh coating on my glaciers. Deep deep winter. Better late than never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 0.9" of fresh powder today on top of 4.5" glacier. Could barely get a depth measurement (snapped yardstick in doing so). 26.9" now for the season. Getting closer to normal (1980-2010 28.9", 30 year running up to 31.2"). Impressive 26F high as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Driving west on I-78 this afternoon, it felt reminiscent of driving down I-90 through Orchard Park during a lake effect event. Lightest, fluffiest snow that I have seen since living in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 On 2/25/2017 at 8:16 AM, snowman19 said: Really? January temps. And how exactly are we going to see January temps in March with no snowcover whatsoever, bare ground, totally unfrozen Great Lakes with waters that are warm as hell, a March sun overhead, long daylight hours, well below normal soil moisture, and Atlantic SSTAs that are torched all along the coast? Can you please explain for us how the airmass is not going to modify at all? How exactly is that going to work? Bumping. Going through the beginning of this thread. Nobody expected this prolonged cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 On 2/25/2017 at 11:18 AM, snowman19 said: Of course it can get cold again in March. The issue was the asinine wishcast of "January cold" coming And this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 11:54 AM, NJwx85 said: Say it with me, Winter is over. Just look at the mid to late range on the GFS. It's a continues stream of 2-3 warm days followed by a brief return back to normal, which is the upper 40's by next week. And this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 On 2/28/2017 at 1:21 PM, snowman19 said: I think we see our first 80+ degree reading of 2017 between 3/15 - 3/31. The 2nd half of March looks more and more like a huge torch Another favorite. We're struggling for 50's in the second half on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, Morris said: Another favorite. We're struggling for 50's in the second half on the models. Don't forget the accumulating snows over on page 9 I personally think arrogant fortune tellers who guarantee things are just as bad on this site, as the weenies they claim to hate... you're on a weather nerd blog, not a pro sports team... chill lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Hah, probably should be in banter but Morris is killing it with the trollbumping. Plenty of egg to go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, Morris said: And this. Like taking candy from a baby. You could quote his bad posts until your fingers wear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Don't forget the accumulating snows over on page 9 I personally think arrogant fortune tellers who guarantee things are just as bad on this site, as the weenies they claim to hate... you're on a weather nerd blog, not a pro sports team... chill lol There is something off-putting about thousands of in your face posts presenting forecasts and declarations made with little skill, but with an overwhelming air of certainty. But I'll not name the guilty poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 On 3/1/2017 at 10:23 AM, CIK62 said: Latest CANSIPS is +3 to +4 for March, and about +2 for both April and May. No below normal month indicated for the next 12, which would make a whopping 35 consecutive months of AN temperatures here since our great winter of 2014-15. We might get a break with July/August which only lean AN a little. I still bet the next BN month will be just an accident BTW: CANSIPS on Dec. 01 had our winter at +1, +3, +3, not bad work. Just having a little fun because there is nothing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: There is snowcover now stupid. That would support the cold as I said. Maybe you're too dumb to comprehend that? I'm assuming that you are kidding, because the snow came after it became cold without snow cover. It became cold because the pattern flipped. That's the only reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: There is snowcover now stupid. That would support the cold as I said. Maybe you're too dumb to comprehend that? See this a response this board does not need.... this kind of stuff does not happen in the NE forum! To be fair the pattern switched right at the time we received that grass top/car snowfall and since then it's been well below normal. So I disagree the pattern change was not a result of snow cover just now since we have a much deep snowpack the BN temps will persist for a extended period of time now. Most likely not changing until around the 25th back to normal. Its clear you can accept the fact that we were flat out wrong but let's move on. Weather is not an exact science and we all know it change very quickly. HUGE KUDOS to Uncle W for accurately predicting this past major storm to almost the day WELL in advance! One more thing: one of the biggest reasons why I do not post much is because of some of the backlash that several known posters throw back at you. Everyone is entitled to their opinion with the backup of information that supports their opinion. Isn't this why we this forum was created!! Now let's stop being childish! Rant over!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Take away the SSW event that occurred and we'd still be warm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 51 minutes ago, Cfa said: Take away the SSW event that occurred and we'd still be warm right? The weak blocking near Greenland helped, but it wasn't all that impressive in itself as the the AO and NAO are still positive this month. It looks like the MJO, SOI, and Nino 1+2 warming interfering with the dominant La Nina winter pattern finished the process. Notice how the PAC NW vortex weakened with a piece going NW of Hawaii. This caused the SE ridge to shift SW closer to California and a trough to dominate the East for a change. The piece of the record cold PV over Arctic Canada coming SE also contributed to the cold. winter pattern New March pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Bump trolling has a habit of coming back to bite you in the *ss, just FYI. As long as I don't ever forecast... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The weak blocking near Greenland helped, but it wasn't all that impressive in itself as the the AO and NAO are still positive this month. It looks like the MJO, SOI, and Nino 1+2 warming interfering with the dominant La Nina winter pattern finished the process. Notice how the PAC NW vortex weakened with a piece going NW of Hawaii. This caused the SE ridge to shift SW closer to California and a trough to dominate the East for a change. The piece of the record cold PV over Arctic Canada coming SE also contributed to the cold. winter pattern New March pattern Nice! I was thinking about asking you to post this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Take away the SSW event that occurred and we'd still be warm right? It played a significant role in allowing the precursor pattern for this month's snowfalls, certainly. It was a constructive interference from improved tropical forcing, stratospheric perturbation, and AAM removal in the mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, Morris said: As long as I don't ever forecast... lol Those that ended winter did so without recognizing the large scale alterations which inexorably initiated about 6 weeks ago. Persistence forecasting only succeeds until something significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Those that ended winter did so without recognizing the large scale alterations which inexorably initiated about 6 weeks ago. Persistence forecasting only succeeds until something significant changes. Thanks! This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: Those that ended winter did so without recognizing the large scale alterations which inexorably initiated about 6 weeks ago. Persistence forecasting only succeeds until something significant changes. Not us. We saw the big March coming for a while. Even the analogs (1967, 1984, 1999, 2008) showed that March would be quite a bit colder than the rest of the winter. 1984 had a record warm February; 2008 had a very mild January. Both winters turned much colder in March. This is fairly typical for dying Ninas. Now the big question: Can NYC get one more significant event with the trough coming down around 3/23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Morris said: Nice! I was thinking about asking you to post this... Yeah, this late potential was a topic for discussion last fall when people were asking what would happen if the La Nina faded early. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 13 hours ago, Morris said: Just having a little fun because there is nothing going on. Yes, the analogs failed the "Test of Tonaga", "Test of a Warrior" and could even it get the change right (after 23 months of the same motif) with 0-Lead Time. This shows that if I am driving down a straight road, I can tie my steering wheel to go straight ahead and doze off. I only have to be smart enough to wake up before the turn comes. The analogs were asleep at the wheel LOL Well now they show, no sustained warmup before Tax Day, fwiw. If most of the remainder of the year, features AN months, my idea that this month was an atmospheric miscue will be salvaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 hours ago, allgame830 said: To be fair the pattern switched right at the time we received that grass top/car snowfall and since then it's been well below normal. So I disagree the pattern change was not a result of snow cover just now since we have a much deep snowpack the BN temps will persist for a extended period of time now. Is there a correlation between mid-latitude snow cover and upper level wind patterns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Ah, back to temps over-performing. Was worried there for a sec, but that was just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Managed to hit 40 today, still way below average but above the forecast of 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Managed to hit 40 today, still way below average but above the forecast of 34 Yeah a little higher today...38 here...running about a -3.5 degree departure for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 This was one of our best low max streaks in quite some time during mid-March. EWR 3/11 30 in 1937 31 in 2017 31 in 1969+ 3/12 30 in 1984 32 in 2017 32 in 1934 3/13 31 in 2014 32 in 1980 34 in 1984+ 3/14 32 in 2017 34 in 1932 35 in 1937 3/15 27 in 2017 27 in 1932 30 in 1993 NYC 3/11 28 in 1885 29 in 2017 29 in 1880 3/12 26 in 1900 28 in 1896 29 in 2017 3/13 12 in 1888 27 in 1896 30 in 1880 3/14 28 in 1892 29 in 1896 32 in 2017+ 3/15 24 in 1900 26 in 2017 26 in 1932+ JFK 3/11 29 in 2017 32 in 1969 32 in 1960 3/12 29 in 1984 32 in 2017 32 in 1998 3/13 33 in 1980 34 in 2017 34 in 2014 3/14 35 in 2003 36 in 2017 37 in 1968 3/15 28 in 2017 29 in 1993 35 in 1992 LGA 3/11 31 in 2017 32 in 1998 32 in 1969+ 3/12 28 in 1984 32 in 2017 32 in 1998+ 3/13 33 in 2014 33 in 1980 34 in 1984 3/14 34 in 2017 36 in 1972 37 in 1975+ 3/15 29 in 1993 30 in 2017 33 in 1992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This was one of our best low max streaks in quite some time during mid-March. EWR 3/11 30 in 1937 31 in 2017 31 in 1969+ 3/12 30 in 1984 32 in 2017 32 in 1934 3/13 31 in 2014 32 in 1980 34 in 1984+ 3/14 32 in 2017 34 in 1932 35 in 1937 3/15 27 in 2017 27 in 1932 30 in 1993 NYC 3/11 28 in 1885 29 in 2017 29 in 1880 3/12 26 in 1900 28 in 1896 29 in 2017 3/13 12 in 1888 27 in 1896 30 in 1880 3/14 28 in 1892 29 in 1896 32 in 2017+ 3/15 24 in 1900 26 in 2017 26 in 1932+ JFK 3/11 29 in 2017 32 in 1969 32 in 1960 3/12 29 in 1984 32 in 2017 32 in 1998 3/13 33 in 1980 34 in 2017 34 in 2014 3/14 35 in 2003 36 in 2017 37 in 1968 3/15 28 in 2017 29 in 1993 35 in 1992 LGA 3/11 31 in 2017 32 in 1998 32 in 1969+ 3/12 28 in 1984 32 in 2017 32 in 1998+ 3/13 33 in 2014 33 in 1980 34 in 1984 3/14 34 in 2017 36 in 1972 37 in 1975+ 3/15 29 in 1993 30 in 2017 33 in 1992 Really impressive for this time of year. I can almost guarantee the one record that won't ever be broken there is the low max for 3/13 thanks to the blizzard of 1888. I don't think we'll ever have an 11 degree high temp on that date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.