March 2017 Discussion & Observations

[Morris]

Down to 22 already. Are forecasts going to bust low?

[Morris]

12 minutes ago, Morris said:

Down to 22 already. Are forecasts going to bust low?

Seeing now that NWS updated the forecasted low to 18.

[ForestHillWx]

17. Winds are still strong. Deep winter feel under clear skies and the full moon. 

[JerseyWx]

17° with calmer winds.  Sky is crystal clear.  Could easily pass as a January or February night,

[gravitylover]

Clear, calm and 13*. Yup, winter.

What's the thinking for the weekend system? Wet or white?

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Clear, calm and 13*. Yup, winter.

What's the thinking for the weekend system? Wet or white?

Euro has 1-3 inches here with more just to the north and out on the cape.

Looks like rain and snow showers

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has 1-3 inches here with more just to the north and out on the cape.

Looks like rain and snow showers

After yesterday, I lost any confidence in the Euro. Late March, marginal temps/thicknesses, weak event, light qpf, looks like rain showers, maybe light mix inland, possibly a bit more precip for eastern New England but that's about it for the weekend

[bluewave]

Through March 14th NYC is running colder than each of the winter months. The average temperature and departure will continue to fall with the cold pattern continuing. If this can hold through the end of March, then it will be the first time March was colder than each winter month since 1960.

Dec 16...38.3

Jan 17....38.0

Feb........41.6

Mar.......37.1 ........... NYC needs to finish -4.6 or lower below the 42.5 average at 37.9 to pull it off

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days, including today, to be 7degs BN.   (36 vs. 43).   String of 23 AN months [I count June '15 as AN] is going to crash and 'freeze'.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

After yesterday, I lost any confidence in the Euro. Late March, marginal temps/thicknesses, weak event, light qpf, looks like rain showers, maybe light mix inland, possibly a bit more precip for eastern New England but that's about it for the weekend

Eps showed a 99 percent chance of 12+  for the coastal yesterday at 72 hours out. Eps has also been struggling.

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps showed a 99 percent chance of 12+  for the coastal yesterday at 72 hours out. Eps has also been struggling.

The EPS and op Euro were both extremely disappointing this last storm. Horrible performance from both

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS and op Euro were both extremely disappointing this last storm. Horrible performance from both

What model did you think did the best? Every model struggled.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What model did you think did the best? Every model struggled.

The UKMET was the best global since it was always the most tucked in while the Euro and GFS were too far east. The NAM picked up the slack in the short term with the more tucked in solutions. We have now seen several events last few years where the UKMET was the leader.

[NJwx85]

I thought the models weren't that bad with the actual SLP track. I think a lot of the problem is that most of those weenie maps count sleet as snow, and the most intense precip of the entire storm was mostly sleet for a majority of the region. It's hard to tell exactly how much sleet fell here, but at one point it sounded like a waterfall of sleet was falling at that lasted a good hour and a half.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The UKMET was the best global since it was always the most tucked in while the Euro and GFS were too far east. The NAM picked up the slack in the short term with the more tucked in solutions. We have now seen several events last few years where the UKMET was the leader.

I think early on the GFS had some runs with a tucked in solution, but lost them...agree on the UKMET it's done well in recent years

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think early on the GFS had some runs with a tucked in solution, but lost them...agree on the UKMET it's done well in recent years

The NAM has also been scoring some wins. I believe the NAM had the heaviest snowfall totals of the Jan 16 blizzard while the Euro was too light.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM has also been scoring some wins. I believe the NAM had the heaviest snowfall totals of the Jan 16 blizzard while the Euro was too light.

The Para nam has been exception this winter.  Looks like it takes over for good, but delayed to 3/21 from what I can see.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The Para nam has been exception this winter.  Looks like it takes over for good, but delayed to 3/21 from what I can see.

Yeah, the faster NAM WAA above 800 MB did well for my location. But the red flag for the Euro may have been all the tucked in EPS members relative to the OP.

[NJwx85]

Winter Weather advisory today for up to 2" for the far NW burbs.

[Wetbulbs88]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I thought the models weren't that bad with the actual SLP track. I think a lot of the problem is that most of those weenie maps count sleet as snow, and the most intense precip of the entire storm was mostly sleet for a majority of the region. It's hard to tell exactly how much sleet fell here, but at one point it sounded like a waterfall of sleet was falling at that lasted a good hour and a half.

This. When powder is coming, everyone brings out the Kuchera. But when the mix line approaches, back come the good ole 10:1's. 

Here in Harlem there was at least a three or four hour period of sleet deluge. 

[gravitylover]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Winter Weather advisory today for up to 2" for the far NW burbs.

Won't bother me if I get another couple of inches but at the rate it's falling now it would have to keep up like this for at least 6 hours to accumulate that much.  I think some of the higher ridges that are oriented SW>NE may see a few inches though.

Looking forward to the potential for more this weekend but I'll be surprised if it stays cold enough.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I thought the models weren't that bad with the actual SLP track. I think a lot of the problem is that most of those weenie maps count sleet as snow, and the most intense precip of the entire storm was mostly sleet for a majority of the region. It's hard to tell exactly how much sleet fell here, but at one point it sounded like a waterfall of sleet was falling at that lasted a good hour and a half.

Exactly why I harp on the 700 and 850 low tracks and tell posters to ignore snow maps. They strongly indicated mixing would make it into the city for a few runs. Unfortunately the front end snow wasn't as good as hoped down here so the sleet and rain mixed in fast. 

In the future when looking at maps (talking collectively, not you) if you're SE of the 700mb  low, expect mixing at some point and the dryslot. S winds at 700 mb indicate lots of warm mid level air. If you're SE of the 850mb low, it will probably go over to rain or freezing rain. The best snow is typically NW of the 700mb low.

[snywx]

On and off flurries/lgt snow 

Low this morning was 13°

Currently 19°

[NJwx85]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly why I harp on the 700 and 850 low tracks and tell posters to ignore snow maps. They strongly indicated mixing would make it into the city for a few runs. Unfortunately the front end snow wasn't as good as hoped down here so the sleet and rain mixed in fast. 

In the future when looking at maps (talking collectively, not you) if you're SE of the 700mb  low, expect mixing at some point and the dryslot. S winds at 700 mb indicate lots of warm mid level air. If you're SE of the 850mb low, it will probably go over to rain or freezing rain. The best snow is typically NW of the 700mb low.

A lot of people are probably ranking the GFS near the bottom in terms of how it did with this storm, but if you look at the 700mb low track from 48 hours out, it nailed that perfectly. 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A lot of people are probably ranking the GFS near the bottom in terms of how it did with this storm, but if you look at the 700mb low track from 48 hours out, it nailed that perfectly. 

The GFS was too far SE with the 700 low. That shows it going across E LI, it clearly went well west of that. That would've kept everyone all snow except maybe the twin forks. 

[Morris]

Park stuck at 23 at noon.

 

This is mid-March.

[bluewave]

Just now, Morris said:

That's what allowed us to get a cold March.

I think that the recent Nino 1+2  spike and more -SOI finally allowed us to get colder by knocking down the La Nina SE ridge. But you can also still still see a La Nina influence superimposed on top of this. So you get elements of both patterns mixed together.

[mophstymeo01]

That's what allowed us to get a cold March.

I said in the vendor thread that it would cause snow in April.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[mophstymeo01]

Some random snowflakes in the air; can't really call them flurries.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[pazzo83]

16 minutes ago, Morris said:

Park stuck at 23 at noon.

 

This is mid-March.

35F right now at KATL - a cool 30 degrees below normal.