March 2017 Discussion & Observations

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

1990 is the most amazing to me with 3" of snow on the 6th...13 degrees on the 7th...85 degrees on the 13th...1976 was an up and down month...70 on 3/5.....4.2" of snow 3/9...57 3/13 with thunder and hail...19 on the 18th...72 on the 20th...30 on the 22nd...April 76 went from 25 degrees on the 12th to 91 on the 17th...96 on the 18th...

What's interesting about this year is that that the temperature over the weekend dropped to 14 after hitting 70 during the first week of March. Most of the big temperature departure swings for the first week of March go in the other direction with the 70+ readings after the coldest departure day. Now we have another chance of getting near or over 60 with another Arctic shot to follow. So this is somewhat of a pattern change from the winter where the warmth just ran the table with very little answer back from the cold. People probably wish that that the cold showed this much of a push back against the warmth during the winter.

[Morris]

When was the last time that our dew point went up 60 degrees in under 48 hours?

[Brian5671]

dreary day-46 and very light rain....drought lives on...

[Cfa]

The sun is finally coming out, still drizzling though. Is it technically a sun shower if it's mostly cloudy?

[donsutherland1]

With today's high temperature of 51° so far, the first week of March is averaging 0.3° above normal. Despite the somewhat warmer than normal anomaly, the first week of March has featured a roller-coaster in terms of temperatures. On March 1, the temperature reached 70°, its highest reading in the first week of March since March 7, 2009 when the temperature also hit 70°. On March 5, the temperature dipped to 14°, the coldest March reading since March 6, 2015 when the thermometer fell to 12°.

So far, the pattern has evolved in a fashion that has been remarkably consistent with the state of the teleconnections. Typically, the degree of consistency is less than what has been the case.

Therefore, I still have no meaningful changes from my thinking that goes back as far as February 21 that Week 2 "has the highest probability of featuring below normal readings" and that "the period running from the middle of the first week of March to mid-month" has perhaps "the greatest probability of measurable snowfall." If the GFS MOS is reasonably accurate, the second week of March could see temperatures average 3°-5° below normal. There could also be one or two opportunities for measurable snow before March 20, the first coming with a system on Thursday night or Friday.

Beyond mid-month, it appears that an EPO+/AO+/PNA+ pattern could develop. Overall hemispheric blocking should remain generally weak. Such a pattern typically favors above normal readings (49.6° vs. the 46.4° average for the entire 3/20-31/1981-2010 period). An adjustment for the ongoing observed warming would bring that figure close to 50°. Were the SOI to go negative, the warmth would likely be greater with the mean temperature running in excess of 50°. It still remains uncertain as to whether a period of much above normal readings will develop, but the closing 7-10 days of the month should wind up warmer than normal. However, at least right now, the GEFS, favor a colder outcome for the five days ending March 23.

My guess is that should the forecast teleconnections develop, opportunities for snowfall would end in most of the NYC area, except perhaps for distant northern and western suburbs) by around 3/20. The EPO+/AO+/PNA+ patterns had no days with measurable snowfall during the 3/20-31/1981-2010 period vs. 2.5% of days for climatology.

[Brian5671]

For tomorrow:  

.CLIMATE...
A few record maximum low temperatures may be set on Wednesday
March 8th. The main challenge will be how fast temperatures
fall Wednesday evening with cold air advection already
established. The following are the records for the date:

Station.............Record max min...
NYC....................54/1987.......
JFK....................46/2012.......
LGA....................54/1987.......
EWR....................52/2012.......
ISP....................47/2012.......
BDR....................43/1973.......

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

dreary day-46 and very light rain....drought lives on...

Officially maybe for the long term but reservoirs are all nearly full, creeks and rivers are running high and the soil moisture is also good.  I guess if you look at it on a 2-3 year timeframe we are still in a long term drought but conditions "on the ground" prove otherwise.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Officially maybe for the long term but reservoirs are all nearly full, creeks and rivers are running high and the soil moisture is also good.  I guess if you look at it on a 2-3 year timeframe we are still in a long term drought but conditions "on the ground" prove otherwise.

Down here we continue to struggle.  There's a temporary above ground waterline to bring water to Stamford and Greenwich.   Need a wetter spring/summer this year for sure.

[gravitylover]

You can come get a few loads of mud out of my yard and squeeze it if you'd like   

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. The outcomes largely illustrate how strong the PV/suppression must be for DCA and southward to pick up a significant March snowfall.

It might be so bad that even DC might also get fringed.  Looks like the sweet spot (if you can call it that) will be in southern VA.  Ironic thing is the cold air and the precip will not be in an ideal colocation, therefore the places in the "sweet spot" especially close to the coast, might only see advisory level snows at best.

 

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

What's interesting about this year is that that the temperature over the weekend dropped to 14 after hitting 70 during the first week of March. Most of the big temperature departure swings for the first week of March go in the other direction with the 70+ readings after the coldest departure day. Now we have another chance of getting near or over 60 with another Arctic shot to follow. So this is somewhat of a pattern change from the winter where the warmth just ran the table with very little answer back from the cold. People probably wish that that the cold showed this much of a push back against the warmth during the winter.

I have to concur with Unc, the period from November 1989 to April 1990 has to be one of the weirdest periods in NYC recorded climate history.  Most people don't remember it, but it was punctuated with an early April snowfall- after all that record warmth the past 3 months lol.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I have to concur with Unc, the period from November 1989 to April 1990 has to be one of the weirdest periods in NYC recorded climate history.  Most people don't remember it, but it was punctuated with an early April snowfall- after all that record warmth the past 3 months lol.

That was really the early stages of our modern extreme weather era when temps began to take off after the late 70's mini ice age. I will never forget going from the -10 Dec 89 to the nearly +10 January 90. 

[Paragon]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was really the early stages of our modern extreme weather era when temps began to take off after the late 70's mini ice age. I will never forget going from the -10 Dec 89 to the nearly +10 January 90. 

Yes, that made me really sad because I was sure we'd have our first big winter snow season since I can't remember (because I was too young to remember 78.)

December 1989 had to be one of the coldest months of the entire 80s decade though.

Do you remember the forecast bust in December 1989 when we were supposed to get 8 inches of snow and the secondary developed too close to the coast and we got rain and thunder instead?  I think that one worked out well for DC, they actually beat us by quite a bit in snowfall that winter, as did Norfolk lol.

The other famous bust in 1989 had actually occurred earlier in the year in February when we were supposed to get 8 inches of snow and got 8 inches of virga instead.  That one hit ACY with 19 inches.  The Norfolk and Atlantic City snowstorm- back to back winters when they beat us in snowfall lol.

That was common in the 80s, I remember the Vet Day 1987 snowstorm, when a couple of inches of snow during the day would have been considered great for the time of year it was, but it paled in comparison to what areas both to our south and our north got.

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yes, that made me really sad because I was sure we'd have our first big winter snow season since I can't remember (because I was too young to remember 78.)

December 1989 had to be one of the coldest months of the entire 80s decade though.

Do you remember the forecast bust in December 1989 when we were supposed to get 8 inches of snow and the secondary developed too close to the coast and we got rain and thunder instead?  I think that one worked out well for DC, they actually beat us by quite a bit in snowfall that winter, as did Norfolk lol.

The other famous bust in 1989 had actually occurred earlier in the year in February when we were supposed to get 8 inches of snow and got 8 inches of virga instead.  That one hit ACY with 19 inches.  The Norfolk and Atlantic City snowstorm- back to back winters when they beat us in snowfall lol.

That was common in the 80s, I remember the Vet Day 1987 snowstorm, when a couple of inches of snow during the day would have been considered great for the time of year it was, but it paled in comparison to what areas both to our south and our north got.

 

That winter was probably one of my biggest weather surprises. I remember going out to the old Malibu nightclub with friends during the early snow around Thanksgiving. Once the cold set in during December, I was convinced we were in for a repeat of the 76-77 winter. When the pattern flipped around New Year's, I couldn't believe what happened. Would have been a rough time for the weather boards if they existed at that time.

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That winter was probably one of my biggest weather surprises. I remember going out to the old Malibu nightclub with friends during the early snow around Thanksgiving. Once the cold set in during December, I was convinced we were in for a repeat of the 76-77 winter. When the pattern flipped around New Year's, I couldn't believe what happened. Would have been a rough time for the weather boards if they existed at that time.

Yes, I can't imagine a more extreme turnaround than that.  The only one that would rank even close would be 2014-15 for Boston.  They went from weenie suicide watches in December and early January to getting the snowiest winter they've ever had lol.  We didn't do too badly either, and had a historically cold month in February to boot.

 

[bluewave]

The cold weather fans are finally going to get what they have been waiting for. Looks like possibly our first week of extended cold in quite some time after the warmth next few days.

 

[CIK62]

LOOKIN' GOOD......

Next 8 days, including today to average about 5degs. BN!  (37 vs 42).

 

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the EPS is correct about another possible shot of cold arriving after March 20th, then we may be in contention for our first colder month since June 2015. It should all come down to what happens during the last week to 10 days of March.

June 2015 wasn't all that "cold" was it- I consider anything within 1 degree of average to be normal.  I thought March 2015 was our last truly colder than normal month.

Sounds like we are going to have a few more shots at snow after this and maybe even into early April a la 1996 ;-) I wonder if this has implications for next winter with the strong signal change and flip?  Also, what was the coldest it got in Northern Canada with this cold shot, the -66 that you mentioned a few days ago?

 

 

[Paragon]

48 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

LOOKIN' GOOD......

Next 8 days, including today to average about 5degs. BN!  (37 vs 42).

 

Maybe the LR models were right after all.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

June 2015 wasn't all that "cold" was it- I consider anything within 1 degree of average to be normal.  I thought March 2015 was our last truly colder than normal month.

Sounds like we are going to have a few more shots at snow after this and maybe even into early April a la 1996 ;-) I wonder if this has implications for next winter with the strong signal change and flip?  Also, what was the coldest it got in Northern Canada with this cold shot, the -66 that you mentioned a few days ago?

 

 

Yeah, we recently just saw a dramatic change to colder in the Arctic after the historic run of record warmth. It will be interesting to see if this shift to colder is somehow related to the -50 SOI drop back in February? 

June 2015 was slightly below normal but you are correct that the last real strong cold departure month was March 2015.

 

15 Feb 2017	1009.58	1009.75	-23.58	-0.37	2.40
16 Feb 2017	1005.99	1009.60	-40.11	-1.48	2.09
17 Feb 2017	1003.17	1009.25	-51.97	-2.33	1.47
18 Feb 2017	1005.90	1009.55	-40.30	-2.56	1.01
19 Feb 2017	1008.76	1008.05	-19.36	-2.59	0.77
20 Feb 2017	1010.46	1007.65	-9.27	-2.20	0.62
21 Feb 2017	1011.50	1009.20	-11.72	-1.52	0.48
22 Feb 2017	1012.49	1009.90	-10.33	-1.09	0.30
23 Feb 2017	1012.95	1009.10	-4.27	-1.03	0.14
24 Feb 2017	1012.38	1008.80	-5.57	-1.46	-0.03
25 Feb 2017	1011.38	1010.10	-16.62	-2.23	-0.31
26 Feb 2017	1012.16	1008.65	-5.91	-2.31	-0.4

[Paragon]

Hmmm and if we get that el nino next winter.....

[Morris]

Was it the GFS that had 70 for the coming weekend 4 days ago?

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, Morris said:

Was it the GFS that had 70 for the coming weekend 4 days ago?

Yeah the euro had 20s and snow and the gfs was warm

[nyblizz44]

How did the GFS look for wave 3? Consistent or flip flopping?

[Paragon]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah the euro had 20s and snow and the gfs was warm

and they'll both end up being wrong lol

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Paragon said:

and they'll both end up being wrong lol

well it was 10 days out when they showed that

[BombsAway1288]

35 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

How did the GFS look for wave 3? Consistent or flip flopping?

Read the model discussion thread. That's what it's there for, to discuss the models. There's no need to have discussions about the same thing on different threads

[nzucker]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The cold weather fans are finally going to get what they have been waiting for. Looks like possibly our first week of extended cold in quite some time after the warmth next few days.

 

I'm pretty excited for the upcoming stretch. We should get 2-4" with Friday's clipper, we have the major snow threat on Tuesday 3/14, and the GFS has some potential again from 3/17-3/21 with an active pattern and reload of the cold.

The PV sat over Russia for much of Dec-Feb, but the strong -WPO/-NAO has brought it back to North America with the record -66F in Mould Bay, Canada (462dm heights).

This double block leads to a potential for an exciting late winter period. I have 23" if snow this winter so far, and a 10-15" March would leave me well above normal on snowfall.

I always thought March would be cold, and that appears to be correct.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I'm pretty excited for the upcoming stretch. We should get 2-4" with Friday's clipper, we have the major snow threat on Tuesday 3/14, and the GFS has some potential again from 3/17-3/21 with an active pattern and reload of the cold.

The PV sat over Russia for much of Dec-Feb, but the strong -WPO/-NAO has brought it back to North America with the record -66F in Mould Bay, Canada (462dm heights).

This double block leads to a potential for an exciting late winter period. I have 23" if snow this winter so far, and a 10-15" March would leave me well above normal on snowfall.

I always thought March would be cold, and that appears to be correct.

An interesting series of events over the last few weeks with the -50 SOI plunge coupled with the Nino 1+2 temperature spike. I think that is finally what was necessary to break us out of the extended La Nina pattern which ran the table from the fall into the winter. The record cold over Arctic Canada was also a pretty impressive shift from the historic warmth. So now we get the green light for extended cold and snow.

15 Feb 2017	1009.58	1009.75	-23.58	-0.37	2.40
16 Feb 2017	1005.99	1009.60	-40.11	-1.48	2.09
17 Feb 2017	1003.17	1009.25	-51.97	-2.33	1.47
18 Feb 2017	1005.90	1009.55	-40.30	-2.56	1.01
19 Feb 2017	1008.76	1008.05	-19.36	-2.59	0.77
20 Feb 2017	1010.46	1007.65	-9.27	-2.20	0.62
21 Feb 2017	1011.50	1009.20	-11.72	-1.52	0.48
22 Feb 2017	1012.49	1009.90	-10.33	-1.09	0.30
23 Feb 2017	1012.95	1009.10	-4.27	-1.03	0.14
24 Feb 2017	1012.38	1008.80	-5.57	-1.46	-0.03
25 Feb 2017	1011.38	1010.10	-16.62	-2.23	-0.31
26 Feb 2017	1012.16	1008.65	-5.91	-2.31	-0.45

 

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

An interesting series of events over the last few weeks with the -50 SOI plunge coupled with the Nino 1+2 temperature spike. I think that is finally what was necessary to break us out of the extended La Nina pattern which ran the table from the fall into the winter. The record cold over Arctic Canada was also a pretty impressive shift from the historic warmth. So now we get the green light for extended cold and snow.

15 Feb 2017	1009.58	1009.75	-23.58	-0.37	2.40
16 Feb 2017	1005.99	1009.60	-40.11	-1.48	2.09
17 Feb 2017	1003.17	1009.25	-51.97	-2.33	1.47
18 Feb 2017	1005.90	1009.55	-40.30	-2.56	1.01
19 Feb 2017	1008.76	1008.05	-19.36	-2.59	0.77
20 Feb 2017	1010.46	1007.65	-9.27	-2.20	0.62
21 Feb 2017	1011.50	1009.20	-11.72	-1.52	0.48
22 Feb 2017	1012.49	1009.90	-10.33	-1.09	0.30
23 Feb 2017	1012.95	1009.10	-4.27	-1.03	0.14
24 Feb 2017	1012.38	1008.80	-5.57	-1.46	-0.03
25 Feb 2017	1011.38	1010.10	-16.62	-2.23	-0.31
26 Feb 2017	1012.16	1008.65	-5.91	-2.31	-0.45

 

Chris, any clue what this might mean for next winter with a possible el nino?

El Nino's generally break into two camps- ones with a mild december and ones with a cold december, and the latter have winters that are much snowier, so I'm hoping for the latter.