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March 2017 Discussion & Observations


Rtd208

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Only the 6th March since 2000 that NYC dipped below 15 degrees. This is like a less extreme version of getting the below 0 reading last February in one of the warmest winters on record.

2017...14....2015...12..2014...13...2009...12...2007....11...2003....11

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only the 6th March since 2000 that NYC dipped below 15 degrees. This is like a less extreme version of getting the below 0 reading last February in one of the warmest winters on record.

2017...14....2015...12..2014...13...2009...12...2007....11...2003....11

Would you say that the most impressive arctic outbreak you've seen in March was in the wake of the Superstorm in 1993? Was the low during that outbreak 13 degrees on March 14th?

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Some of the most extreme temperature variation that we have seen before March 10th. A NYC high of 70 on 3/1 followed by a low of 14 today. Another temperature rebound on the way with temps making a run on 60 degrees in a few days. Same theme continues with the warmest day ultimately having a more significant + departure than the lowest - departure.

What about this thing I'm hearing about really extreme cold air, the coldest air in the northern hemisphere being just north of the border and that a little kink in the jetstream could bring it our way next week?

 

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30 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Would you say that the most impressive arctic outbreak you've seen in March was in the wake of the Superstorm in 1993? Was the low during that outbreak 13 degrees on March 14th?

 

That was one of them. The heavy snow changed to sleet and rain and whatever was left turned to a block of ice. Probably the slickest remnant snowpack with a sheet of ice on top that I have seen.

But the best late season Arctic outbreak was around the April 82 blizzard. Temperatures in the 20's during the afternoon with the blizzard and 3 daily record lows in a row.

 

29 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What about this thing I'm hearing about really extreme cold air, the coldest air in the northern hemisphere being just north of the border and that a little kink in the jetstream could bring it our way next week?

 

It looks like a battle between the raging PAC Jet and blocking trying to get going. You see this back and forth with the SE ridge going up and down while Canada gets very cold. We go from 70 to 14 and back near 60 in just a few days. EPS has at least two more colder shots right into mid-March. 

 

eps_t850a_nh_29.png

eps_t850a_nh_45.png

 

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1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

Dew point of -17 here with a RH of 10% Desert southwest numbers lol.

 

43 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Brush fire on ocean parkway on the nassua/Suffolk border this morning. CAA winds down there on days like today can be intense 

This looks like the lowest dewpoints in March for the 2010's so far. The -14 dewpoint at Newark last hour beat the -7 in 2014 and -4 in 2015. Very rare any year to see dewpoints below -10 in March.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

This looks like the lowest dewpoints in March for the 2010's so far. The -14 dewpoint at Newark last hour beat the -7 in 2014 and -4 in 2015. Very rare any year to see dewpoints below -10 in March.

Very dry air mass in place.  Negative double-digit dewpoints are pretty impressive for March.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was one of them. The heavy snow changed to sleet and rain and whatever was left turned to a block of ice. Probably the slickest remnant snowpack with a sheet of ice on top that I have seen.

But the best late season Arctic outbreak was around the April 82 blizzard. Temperatures in the 20's during the afternoon with the blizzard and 3 daily record lows in a row.

 

It looks like a battle between the raging PAC Jet and blocking trying to get going. You see this back and forth with the SE ridge going up and down while Canada gets very cold. We go from 70 to 14 and back near 60 in just a few days. EPS has at least two more colder shots right into mid-March. 

 

eps_t850a_nh_29.png

eps_t850a_nh_45.png

 

I think it got down to 19 degrees fairly close to the city (Newark and Long Island) and it stayed cold most of that week in April and we even got a small snow event (like 1") the following weekend!

 

I like what I see on those maps, perhaps this is what Isotherm was referring to when he said 'the best set up for snow of the entire season.'

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6 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Dew point of -17 here with a RH of 10% Desert southwest numbers lol.

We got those great deep starry night skies of the southwest too!  I've been waiting for this all winter, but it's been cloudy way too much this winter.

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During the March 1-20, 1950-2016 period, 9 storms brought 6" or more snow to at least 2 of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or New York.  Below are the number of cases for each of those cities that saw 6" or more snow:

Boston: 6

New York City: 8

Philadelphia: 8

Washington, DC: 2 (March 1960 and March 1993, both of which brought 6" or more to all of the above cities)

Put another way, a storm that would bring 6" or more snow to Washington during this timeframe is less likely to bring 6" or more snow to any of those other cities than one that would bring 6" or more to Boston, Philadelphia, or New York City. 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Long Island may finally get into the 60 degree action this week as a very warm offshore flow develops by Wednesday.  

 

ecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_14.png

 

 

All of the island been in the 60s multiple times

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

During the March 1-20, 1950-2016 period, 9 storms brought 6" or more snow to at least 2 of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or New York.  Below are the number of cases for each of those cities that saw 6" or more snow:

Boston: 6

New York City: 8

Philadelphia: 8

Washington, DC: 2 (March 1960 and March 1993, both of which brought 6" or more to all of the above cities)

Put another way, a storm that would bring 6" or more snow to Washington during this timeframe is less likely to bring 6" or more snow to any of those other cities than one that would bring 6" or more to Boston, Philadelphia, or New York City. 

There is a possibility with the suppression we are seeing that no one on the coastal plain sees 6" of snow from the weekend event.  Lucky for us, there are even more threats to track after that!

 

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8 hours ago, Paragon said:

There is a possibility with the suppression we are seeing that no one on the coastal plain sees 6" of snow from the weekend event.  Lucky for us, there are even more threats to track after that!

 

I agree. The outcomes largely illustrate how strong the PV/suppression must be for DCA and southward to pick up a significant March snowfall.

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We continue the theme of some of the most extreme temperature variation ever experienced here during the first half of March. Milder temps return the next few days followed by another Arctic shot this weekend.

Screen shot 2017-03-07 at 8.30.44 AM.png


 

 
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We continue the theme of some of the most extreme temperature variation ever experienced here during the first half of March. Milder temps return the next few days followed by another Arctic shot this weekend.

Screen shot 2017-03-07 at 8.30.44 AM.png



 


 

1990 is the most amazing to me with 3" of snow on the 6th...13 degrees on the 7th...85 degrees on the 13th...1976 was an up and down month...70 on 3/5.....4.2" of snow 3/9...57 3/13 with thunder and hail...19 on the 18th...72 on the 20th...30 on the 22nd...April 76 went from 25 degrees on the 12th to 91 on the 17th...96 on the 18th...

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