Rtd208 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Will March come in like a lion and go out like a lamb?? Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 0z GFS and 0z Euro develop nice blocking moving forward. AO is taking a nosedive with the NAO going slightly negative and the PNA rising. MJO also looks favorable. Both models show a clipper possibly morphing into a miller b for next weekend. Have to watch out for that. I think the first 2 weeks will be favorable for the area but then after that will be a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Anthony Masiello It sounds crazy but this could be the Mid Atlantic's best chance at snow all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 I think we have a storm chance around day 6 and then again around day 9 when real cold air arrives, perhaps below average. That's what the ensembles are indicating. However we'll have to see if the guidance ends up backing off on the strength and depth of the trough as has been the case for most of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I think we have a storm chance around day 6 and then again around day 9 when real cold air arrives, perhaps below average. That's what the ensembles are indicating. However we'll have to see if the guidance ends up backing off on the strength and depth of the trough as has been the case for most of the season. We've had great patterns modeled almost the whole winter....verification is muted/less cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We've had great patterns modeled almost the whole winter....verification is muted/less cold. follow the pattern this winter a couple weeks cold and snowy with normal to above normal snow then warmer and March will continue the streak of temp AN and Snowfall N/AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: follow the pattern this winter a couple weeks cold and snowy with normal to above normal snow then warmer and March will continue the streak of temp AN and Snowfall N/AN I'd agree, we'll get a shot at one more before we're done. Probably a 5-7 day stretch of BN temps before the inferno resumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Euro looks okay just need that low a bit more south and we're in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: follow the pattern this winter a couple weeks cold and snowy with normal to above normal snow then warmer and March will continue the streak of temp AN and Snowfall N/AN Is this a forecast or guarantee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I think we have a storm chance around day 6 and then again around day 9 when real cold air arrives, perhaps below average. That's what the ensembles are indicating. However we'll have to see if the guidance ends up backing off on the strength and depth of the trough as has been the case for most of the season. Euros a few inches march 6-7 timeframe, ensembles for Gefs/Eps look similar... IMO... last chance as that ridge looks to reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros a few inches march 6-7 timeframe, ensembles for Gefs/Eps look similar... IMO... last chance as that ridge looks to reload I wouldn't call it the last chance the GEFS has us cold up to end of its run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I wouldn't call it the last chance the GEFS has us cold up to end of its run! That's where the "IMO" comes in... once that ridge reloads say goodbye to normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Oz gfs is pretty cold and stormy. Pretty good look starting late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 There's going to be some record cold temps. broken this March if the GFS 0z run is right. It's depicting colder than average January highs during the first half of March. People are going to be very surprised by the time this record torch is over. I always thought the point to this climate change is the extremes of it. It's only going to get worse in my opinion. This is why I had a feeling that March will be below average month and so is the first half of April! Plenty of snow chances according to the GFS with a +PNA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 The Euro disagrees with the gfs and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we only see a quick 2-3 day cold break before the torching resumes. Gfs has been awful in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Well 2-3 days is all we need to sneak in a snow storm, so we'll probably get that and then it'll melt quickly, similar to March 1998's 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 7 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: There's going to be some record cold temps. broken this March if the GFS 0z run is right. It's depicting colder than average January highs during the first half of March. People are going to be very surprised by the time this record torch is over. I always thought the point to this climate change is the extremes of it. It's only going to get worse in my opinion. This is why I had a feeling that March will be below average month and so is the first half of April! Plenty of snow chances according to the GFS with a +PNA! Really? January temps. And how exactly are we going to see January temps in March with no snowcover whatsoever, bare ground, totally unfrozen Great Lakes with waters that are warm as hell, a March sun overhead, long daylight hours, well below normal soil moisture, and Atlantic SSTAs that are torched all along the coast? Can you please explain for us how the airmass is not going to modify at all? How exactly is that going to work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Really? January temps. And how exactly are we going to see January temps in March with no snowcover whatsoever, bare ground, totally unfrozen Great Lakes with waters that are warm as hell, a March sun overhead, long daylight hours, well below normal soil moisture, and Atlantic SSTAs that are torched all along the coast? Can you please explain for us how the airmass is not going to modify at all? How exactly is that going to work? Some serious wishcasting going on. Most of what's modeled is day 7+ and you know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Some serious wishcasting going on. Most of what's modeled is day 7+ and you know how that goes. Lol yea and the Euro looks nothing like the GFS, huge red flag, alarm bells going off. The GFS has been severely cold biased all winter long in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Lol yea and the Euro looks nothing like the GFS, huge red flag, alarm bells going off. The GFS has been severely cold biased all winter long in the long range. What are you even talking about? Eps looks nothing like the euro op run and we all know how the models are with pattern changes. We have a chance of snow during the first 2 weeks of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Some serious wishcasting going on. Most of what's modeled is day 7+ and you know how that goes. No one is wishcasting. Look at the tellies and the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Lol yea and the Euro looks nothing like the GFS, huge red flag, alarm bells going off. The GFS has been severely cold biased all winter long in the long range. Wth are you looking at? The Euro and GFS actually agree which is odd. Yeah the duration of the GFS may be exaggerated but the models agreeing should tell you something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The Euro disagrees with the gfs and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we only see a quick 2-3 day cold break before the torching resumes. Gfs has been awful in the LR. euro has been worse in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 39 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Wth are you looking at? The Euro and GFS actually agree which is odd. Yeah the duration of the GFS may be exaggerated but the models agreeing should tell you something Both agree on the cold coming with possible storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 50 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No one is wishcasting. Look at the tellies and the models. we've seen that before....what comes is short and muted. You'll note too, any storm potential is pushed back to mid month, over 15 days away again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Both agree on the cold coming with possible storminess. Yes. He forgets that March can get cold as well. Yeah we're starting the fight against climo but it's the beginning of March not the end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we've seen that before....what comes is short and muted. You'll note too, any storm potential is pushed back to mid month, over 15 days away again. Yes we have and we have seen storms before when the cold shots have came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Yes. He forgets that March can get cold as well. Yeah we're starting the fight against climo but it's the beginning of March not the end of it. Still, we can get a good size storm with the right setup. NAO and AO still falling, PNA still on the rise I like the first 2 weeks for something to pop Very favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Lol yea and the Euro looks nothing like the GFS, huge red flag, alarm bells going off. The GFS has been severely cold biased all winter long in the long range. Post the GEFS and the EPS here. Lets all take a look. if you are discussing specific model runs, please post them so this kind of stuff can stop happening. What models show is 100% objective. Whether or not you agree with what they show is on you, but if you are discussing runs, just post the pics so everyone can see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Still, we can get a good size storm with the right setup. NAO and AO still falling, PNA still on the rise I like the first 2 weeks for something to pop Very favorable To be honest, get me to average and I'll call it a winter. I'm close 25" so I would only need 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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