weatherwiz Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 As we take a break from winter and experience some spring-like weather, our attention turns to Saturday as a rather strong cold front is set to move through New England. Ahead of the cold front surface temperatures should work well into the upper 50's to perhaps 60F and dewpoints into the middle 50's. While these values aren't impressive when looking at the prospects for convection what is rather impressive are the forecasted 700-500mb lapse rates which could be on order of 7 C/KM. This will help to yield at least a few to perhaps several hundred J/KG of elevated instability. Again, not impressive but given how we are looking at quite a dynamic system this could be enough to allow for some convection to get going ahead of the front. Given the wind alignment we would be likely looking at a low topped squall line type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 Euro actually has 700-500mb lapse rates approaching or even exceeding 8 C/KM off to our west on Saturday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Hopefully like a few severe Feb events ago we can rip a 60-80mph gust front thru causing tremendous tree damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: As we take a break from winter and experience some spring-like weather, our attention turns to Saturday as a rather strong cold front is set to move through New England. Ahead of the cold front surface temperatures should work well into the upper 50's to perhaps 60F and dewpoints into the middle 50's. While these values aren't impressive when looking at the prospects for convection what is rather impressive are the forecasted 700-500mb lapse rates which could be on order of 7 C/KM. This will help to yield at least a few to perhaps several hundred of these . Again, not impressive but given how we are looking at quite a dynamic system this could be enough to allow for some to get going ahead of the front. Given the wind alignment we would be likely looking at a low topped squall line type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 At least someone is going to get this squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 4 hours ago, OceanStWx said: At least someone is going to get this squall line. Scooter's boss says it's coming Michael VentriceVerified account@MJVentrice 35m35 minutes ago More Saturday could feature a line of thunderstorms, possibly severe, to sweep from west to east across the Northeast in PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Congrats Maine, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 Maybe some convection tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Maybe some convection tonight? Yeah .. decent instability and dews way up low 50's now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah .. decent instability and dews way up low 50's now Lapse rates quite impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 WE BANG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 May not be a "squalline" just yet but SE lower Michigan has some pretty solid severe warned action ripping through. 24 -hour convention teleconnector to SNE applies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Going to be some pockets of damaging wind gusts...perhaps just to our west but if that instability builds east the threat could push into more of SNE. Imoressive to see ~200 m2/s2 of effective SRH and several hundred J of MLcape...for Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 May see a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Congrats DC. Just like summer, all the CAPE is there. Good start to SNE fail season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Two schools... one, CAPE... as Scott mentioned there is a theta-e ridge being pulled N over the coastal flats east of the Apps/front. Comparatively less forcing/triggers are needed with better CAPE. two, mechanics... Those are superior up this way compared to down in DC. Those include unidirection shear and a huge whopper jet nosing into the area later on. They'll probably have discrete cellular structures down south, where the stuff up this way is either organized into a squall or some broken parallel bands ...similar to what took place in Michigan yesterday - there is a known 24-hour lag teleconnector for Michigan and SNE and this entire scenario from yesterday into today demos why - There is a Watch now into the Capital district of eastern NY and western Mass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Prob see a few tornadoes to our west within the line...nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Discrete cells in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 severe thunderstorm watch for litchfield county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Nice call, weatherwiz. Again proving great value to the board. Hat tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Tornado Warnings out of Binghamton NWS. Nothing like a good TOR warning in upstate NY in February. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 416 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 NYC025-105-PAC127-252145- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170225T2145Z/ Delaware NY-Sullivan NY-Wayne PA- 416 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES... At 416 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Stalker, or 16 miles north of Honesdale, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said: Nice call, weatherwiz. Again proving great value to the board. Hat tip. Thanks! probably should weaken as it moves into CT...strong southeast winds a killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 It was always in NY and PA, but it probably won't do much here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Two schools... one, CAPE... as Scott mentioned there is a theta-e ridge being pulled N over the coastal flats east of the Apps/front. Comparatively less forcing/triggers are needed with better CAPE. two, mechanics... Those are superior up this way compared to down in DC. Those include unidirection shear and a huge whopper jet nosing into the area later on. They'll probably have discrete cellular structures down south, where the stuff up this way is either organized into a squall or some broken parallel bands ...similar to what took place in Michigan yesterday - there is a known 24-hour lag teleconnector for Michigan and SNE and this entire scenario from yesterday into today demos why - There is a Watch now into the Capital district of eastern NY and western Mass... The wind field and instability is better west and north. They'll be heavy rain and some thunder, but nothing we haven't seen in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 As long as the line doesn't race too far ahead of the best dynamics, the entrance region of 80 knot MLJ streak may help support the convection becoming elevated and lasting longer into central SNE...inversion though (especially CT) will hinder damaging winds though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The wind field and instability is better west and north. They'll be heavy rain and some thunder, but nothing we haven't seen in SNE. Perhaps.. I don't think anyone's looking for severe tho - the thread says low-topped squalline. I guess if one wants to infer something outta that they do so at own risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Perhaps.. I don't think anyone's looking for severe tho - the thread says low-topped squalline. I guess if one wants to infer something outta that they do so at own risk. Even the wind sigs in NY aren't special. You can see the front propagate east on the velocity sigs. Not exactly that damaging. But they'll be some +RA and maybe some rumbles. Nothing like a year ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Anyone in SNE going to get a rebel flake or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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