psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I saw that too. It would seem that would take a track underneath as depicted. So the gefs lends some support for the extreme retrograde of the block idea. When looking at this understand there is some pretty big divergence within the members and so the trough in the east is muted. But getting something to track under us is priority one. We don't need some huge blue blob on a day 16 ensemble mean to get that. Mid march we need a dynamic system anyways. A marginal weak thing won't work. Most of our mid march snows it was 50 degrees before and after the storm anyways. Maybe even warmer then that. As long as there is cold enough air around we have a shot of something amplifiers in the right spot. I think some are looking for the wrong thing to get a March storm. The last few years we had some very historically rare cold and snow in march. Usually seeing some huge blue blob over is simply means cold and dry. A more typical march snow is getting a dynamic system to track under us and it's just cold enough under heavy precip to get snow. This mean to me with that height pattern over Canada says something should track under us in that time period. The trough is washed out but the higher heights in Canada do suggest many members see the op gfs idea with the blocking. And while not a big blue blob there is enough chilly air around to lend hope a bombing system could cool the column enough All this is low probability. I'm just pointing out how I would like to see this go. Praying for some -20 anomaly cold to show up and get a mid winter type storm is not realistic imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Euro must have been great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro must have been great! No. It wasn't great. It was the opposite of great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro must have been great! If you are lookin for any chance of snow, just hang in there for 10 more days. Just 10 MORE DAYS! Maybe longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: No. It wasn't great. It was the opposite of great. Ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 But hey, that NA blocking looks really stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: If you are lookin for any chance of snow, just hang in there for 10 more days. Just 10 MORE DAYS! Maybe longer. The analysis in this thread has been great, but, for the most part, what the ens have advertised beyond about 7 days hasn't been validated in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: No. It wasn't great. It was the opposite of great. What a waste of 2 cold days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The analysis in this thread has been great, but, for the most part, what the ens have advertised beyond about 7 days hasn't been validated in reality. Yeah its just one of those dud winters. We get em. If we didn't, we would be New England lol. We might still get lucky in the next couple weeks, but it just looks like the crappy Pacific is destined to wreck what might otherwise be a good period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It does show up to an inch Friday for parts of the region...so there's that. Yeah it does have the weakling clipper further south than previous runs. Damn, the desperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Para literally giving the finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 The look on the EPS has actually improved somewhat from the 00Z run. Still splits the pv with ridging between the PV in northwest Canada and the 50/50 that has setup. We are actually seeing a better response from that blocking in regards to the lobe that gets pinched off of the pv to the southeast just north of the lakes. This lobe feature has been shunted a little farther southwest and we are now seeing a deeper, sharper and better positioned trough in response. Edit: Forgot to mention that it also is holding that lobe feature, and consequently the trough, in a little longer which would give us a larger window to have some NS energy rotate through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 The Euro Ens are signaling a window somewhere after the 7th. GFS/GEFS is on board too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 EPS showing a period of neg departures after 7th. There is even a -10 day in there which is a pretty robust signal on an ensemble from this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The Euro Ens are signaling a window somewhere after the 7th. GFS/GEFS is on board too. That's pretty much the window I am looking at right now. Roughly a 3 day window opening around the 7'th, which is day 9. That window could possibly be extended if we can see that PV lobe around the lakes get trapped under the blocking longer and at this point I don't think that can be ruled out. Of course this is all speculation dependent on the models being somewhat right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: That's pretty much the window I am looking at right now. Roughly a 3 day window opening around the 7'th, which is day 9. That window could possibly be extended if we can see that PV lobe around the lakes get trapped under the blocking longer and at this point I don't think that can be ruled out. Of course this is all speculation dependent on the models being somewhat right. We have all analyzed this to death lol. Not much has really changed with the overall look and window of potential, when looking at h5. Its probably been delayed a bit in recent runs, if anything. I think what many of us are waiting to see is more than a faint signal for a storm with a favorable track on the ensembles. The GFS op has presented some opportunities in recent runs, which is a good sign. But if we are going to take the favorable h5 looks verbatim on the ensembles, we also have to look at the timing of the cold periods and any coinciding storm chances. Up until and as of now, its really not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 Para gfs likes the long range also. Dives several vorts south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 Today has been a good day overall. Some op hits. 3 runs in a row showing a good long range pattern. Ensembles improved with holding the blocking long enough to give us a shot and some agreement the block retrogrades enough to really force some vorts under us. We just have to wait and see what happens now but that setup puts us in the game for the first time in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 18z GFS has a 3-6" snowstorm in fantasy range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We have all analyzed this to death lol. Not much has really changed with the overall look and window of potential, when looking at h5. Its probably been delayed a bit in recent runs, if anything. I think what many of us are waiting to see is more than a faint signal for a storm with a favorable track on the ensembles. The GFS op has presented some opportunities in recent runs, which is a good sign. But if we are going to take the favorable h5 looks verbatim on the ensembles, we also have to look at the timing of the cold periods and any coinciding storm chances. Up until and as of now, its really not there. To be honest the only thing I am worrying about at this point is to get a trough deep enough in the east that we can get any northern stream energy underneath us. The deeper and sharper we can get that the more potential upside we would have. If we can get that then I will take my chances with temps, which I think we would see cooperate in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: That's pretty much the window I am looking at right now. Roughly a 3 day window opening around the 7'th, which is day 9. That window could possibly be extended if we can see that PV lobe around the lakes get trapped under the blocking longer and at this point I don't think that can be ruled out. Of course this is all speculation dependent on the models being somewhat right. And look at what the 18Z GFS does. The blocking traps the pv lobe around the lakes extending the window to 5 or 6 days and brings a storm up from the south as that feature finally pulls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Haven't check checked the models. How does the day 4 severe setup look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: To be honest the only thing I am worrying about at this point is to get a trough deep enough in the east that we can get any northern stream energy underneath us. The deeper and sharper we can get that the more potential upside we would have. If we can get that then I will take my chances with temps, which I think we would see cooperate in that setup. I agree. Not worried about cold. More timing something with the relative cold. Would be nice to not have to exclusively depend on a ns shortwave tracking underneath, especially with the generally hostile Pacific. There has really been nothing happening with southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I agree. Not worried about cold. More timing something with the relative cold. Would be nice to not have to exclusively depend on a ns shortwave tracking underneath, especially with the generally hostile Pacific. There has really been nothing happening with southern stream energy. I saw PSU's rant about the southern stream and had to laugh because I felt the same way. All I can say is that with it still at range maybe the models are failing to pick up on some potential energy in the southern stream. We can always hope that is the case at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 It's going to be an interesting week. We're fiiiiinallly getting inside of 10 days. Lol. Haven't been really digging in to much because I don't like long range tracking in March. Too much built in climo hosility. But the block looks pretty real and temps will likely support snow if we can get a good track. 3 out of the last 4 Marches have produced. Maybe 4 out of 5? Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It's going to be an interesting week. We're fiiiiinallly getting inside of 10 days. Lol. Haven't been really digging in to much because I don't like long range tracking in March. Too much built in climo hosility. But the block looks pretty real and temps will likely support snow if we can get a good track. 3 out of the last 4 Marches have produced. Maybe 4 out of 5? Heh We are, huh? And here I was about to get my "Forever Day 10" T-shirts printed, lol But seriously, I do hope we can finally have something even partially work out! (Because LR tracking this winter has just been...exhausting and demoralizing, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 Bad gfs run. After the PV split this run the western side is the dominant one and it slides down into the PAC nw killing us by pumping ridging into the conus. Just one op run, have to see if that becomes a trend. If so not good. We need the PV to our northeast to be the dominant player and the western one to stay as out of the way as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Bad gfs run. After the PV split this run the western side is the dominant one and it slides down into the PAC nw killing us by pumping ridging into the conus. Just one op run, have to see if that becomes a trend. If so not good. We need the PV to our northeast to be the dominant player and the western one to stay as out of the way as possible. You should probably not look at 6z. Not sure what that set up is but looking at 500mb it can't be good. PV is not to our NE...not sure where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Though the timing is different, EPS is a day and a half quicker, both the overnight runs of GEFS and EPS continue to show a pv lobe being pinched off from the northwestern Canada PV and being sent just north of the Great Lakes in roughly the day 8/9 period. Both have improved in regards to this feature by dropping it even farther south and the corresponding trough is responding by digging deeper as well as sharpening (though the sharpening is more so in regards to the GEFS). Though there is some tweaking to the setup that I would like to eventually see I think the most important thing at this time (were talking day 8+ after all) is to see a continuation of the strong blocking forcing a pv lobe to be pinched off and being sent into the lakes. We also want to see a continuation, over subsequent runs, of having that lobe drop further south and the trough following suit by digging even deeper with even more sharpening. The deeper and sharper that trough is the better chances we have of having any potential NS energy that does rotate through slide underneath us. Not to mention that this, especially the sharpening, would also increase the upside potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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