March medium/long range disco

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Psu - at some point in this winter of fail - doesnt the disconnect from what looks like a good set-up upstairs and crap at the surface as we close in become the norm?

But I've been pointing out the lack of actual snow on the guidance and that I am bearish. However there were posts last night that seemed to indicate the 0z runs got worse. To me they were better. That doesn't mean I think it's going to snow. I'm still skeptical. But those runs weren't any different such to cause me to change my mind or flip out in either direction. 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You know folks, some years, it just can't snow...and this is one of them.  Lol

But next year will be a different story.  

The problem with this is, it has snowed just about everywhere but the greater DC-Baltimore area. Yes its been a crappy snow year overall in the MA, but the fact that the local airports are all sitting at basically an inch heading into March is also just bad luck.

[WxUSAF]

I can see my house on this map! 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Chances for a historic winter continue to improve; Friday's clipper is now passing to our north and we look to have sprinkles or light rain and temperatures near 40.  The EURO pushes temperatures well into the 60s on Sunday and Monday (during our cold window) before a strong cold front brings post-frontal rain showers. Still a chance for a significant low to pass to our south as we transition out of this "cold" pattern but chances that it brings snow are minuscule. 

 

 

The clipper was always going north of us. A couple op gfs runs teased but the vast majority of the ensembles had it way north. The op just finally came in line with what was the likely track all along. The "threat" window was always after around march 5. I've pointed out that even with a decent h5 look the signal for snow is weak. It's still weak. But it's no worse then it has been. Yesterday the h5 look deteriorated but last night it rebounded. In the end I'm not sure why today people seem to think things look worse then yesterday. Perhaps it's just frustration that they don't look better. But the overall idea is still the same imo.

 Nao blocking is setting up.  A trough sets up in the east after about march 5. Then we have a window of perhaps a few days or longer depending on how long the blocking holds where it "could" snow. But the pacific is still crap so our chances are still less then ideal.  That's exactly what I would have said 48 hours ago and it's still what I say now. So the sudden return of flipping out and cliff jumping seems odd to me when our odds haven't changed much regarding this setup. I get frustration over the winter but would have thought people got that out of their system by now. That's all that puzzles me. 

Now as for specifics, were still outside the range. But take the latest gfs run. There are 3 threats. One goes to our north and blasts New England around the 6-7th. Then around the 11th a system dives to our south then bombs. I would keep an eye on that. Systems digging into a trough in march can blow up easy. Then there is a crazy blizzard for NC on the 14th that looks like we get fringed. The details on all 3 of those events will change at that range. So one of them could easily adjust in a way that benefits us. Or given this season they all adjust the wrong way. But looking at that run doesn't make me think we're screwed. There were threats there. Now of it goes down that way, one just north, one suppressed, and one just south, then someone needs to find Mother Nature and take that  €£#¥£€ out behind the woodshed and $&@€>%^#%¥€

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I can see my house on this map! 

 

 

Ok find whatever jerk in Baltimore has offended the snow gods so we can make the nevessary sacrifice and move on. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The clipper was always going north of us. A couple op gfs runs teased but the vast majority of the ensembles had it way north. The op just finally came in line with what was the likely track all along. The "threat" window was always after around march 5. I've pointed out that even with a decent h5 look the signal for snow is weak. It's still weak. But it's no worse then it has been. Yesterday the h5 look deteriorated but last night it rebounded. In the end I'm not sure why today people seem to think things look worse then yesterday. Perhaps it's just frustration that they don't look better. But the overall idea is still the same imo.

 Nao blocking is setting up.  A trough sets up in the east after about march 5. Then we have a window of perhaps a few days or longer depending on how long the blocking holds where it "could" snow. But the pacific is still crap so our chances are still less then ideal.  That's exactly what I would have said 48 hours ago and it's still what I say now. So the sudden return of flipping out and cliff jumping seems odd to me when our odds haven't changed much regarding this setup. I get frustration over the winter but would have thought people got that out of their system by now. That's all that puzzles me. 

Now as for specifics, were still outside the range. But take the latest gfs run. There are 3 threats. One goes to our north and blasts New England around the 6-7th. Then around the 11th a system dives to our south then bombs. I would keep an eye on that. Systems digging into a trough in march can blow up easy. Then there is a crazy blizzard for NC on the 14th that looks like we get fringed. The details on all 3 of those events will change at that range. So one of them could easily adjust in a way that benefits us. Or given this season they all adjust the wrong way. But looking at that run doesn't make me think we're screwed. There were threats there. Now of it goes down that way, one just north, one suppressed, and one just south, then someone needs to find Mother Nature and take that  €£#¥£€ out behind the woodshed and $&@€>%^#%¥€

I agree and my posts have also reflected this. Loving the NA look, but the reality is there is plenty of opportunity to waste it with the horrible pacific set up. As for the cliff jumping stuff(at least for me) its all in fun. Until we get to a point where the advertised pattern is hostile, or we are approaching April and still nothing, no reason not to continue monitoring.

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The problem with this is, it has snowed just about everywhere but the greater DC-Baltimore area. Yes its been a crappy snow year overall in the MA, but the fact that the local airports are all sitting at basically an inch heading into March is also just bad luck.

I don't disagree with throwing the cause in the "bad luck" category.  We are at a latitude that in some years like this that one thing or another and at different times or another, conspire to result in a general skunk in the snowfall department. I've seen it happen too many times before since 72/73. The writing was on the wall by mid-January this could be one of those years. Of course,  there's still a chance at a fluke,  but there's nothing this weenie is seeing to suggest we have a chance at that. In short, it's just a fact of our climo years like this will come to pass. Let's just hope that this isn't the first banana in a bunch,  and we bounce back next year. I think we do fwliw.

[BristowWx]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Again I must be looking at it wrong because from my quick glance of the h5 loop I thought both the 0z gefs and geps were an improvement over the previous run.  

No you are right.  When I saw the clipper go north on 0z I had a lack of snow episode.  I can't explain it and no excuse for it..just happened.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I can see my house on this map! 

 

 

And this basically represents the snowfall for January for the piedmont/coastal plain in the MA. More fell beyond this further north and in the western highlands obviously.

[showmethesnow]

After the first glance at the overnight EPS I was about to call time of death on this crapfest of a winter. The setup at this point probably argues for us to see everything pass to our west and north short of great timing and a lot of luck. Then I looked a little harder into why we were seeing such a deterioration in the pattern from the great look we were seeing just a few days ago. And I found that maybe...JUST MAYBE... we weren't quite SOL yet. 

The top image is EPS day 10 from 2 days ago. As you can see what we have is the PV in northern Canada interacting with the 50/50 low with a pulse/wave riding underneath the PV giving us the trough setup moving into the Midwest. This PV setup at this time, with it being so far north as well as interacting with the 50/50 probably argues strongly against seeing the trough in the east from digging far enough south to allow any northern stream energy to pass underneath us. Now compare to the next image which shows the overnight run at day 8.

Now look at the differences we are seeing up top. We are now seeing a disconnect between the PV in northern Canada, which has shifted westward somewhat, and the 50/50 which is coming in stronger because of this lack of interaction. What is causing this is the much stronger west based blocking in Greenland that is extending down towards ridging in southeastern Canada. This is effectively blocking the pulse wave that we have riding along the southern portions of the PV. We can see the effect as that wave very noticeable starts to lengthen and extend to the southeast. Now look at what the downstream implications are.  

Now we look 1 1/2 days later. This is the day 11.5 of the run from 2 days ago. As you can see we never had a true disconnect between the PV in northern Canada and the 50/50. Thus we have a weak 50/50 feature as well the trough in the east being broad based and shallow due to the PV setup and the fact that it is so far north. There is not much fluidity in this look in regards to the eastern trough and getting the dig at which we need to see. 

 

This is day 9.5 of the overnight run. We still see a total disconnect of the northern Canada PV with the 50/50. This lack of interaction has allowed the 50/50 as well as the ridging into Greenland to remain much stronger allowing for much better blocking. We also now see that the wave riding along the southern edge of the PV has been forced southeastward and detaching due to this blocking so that we shortly see a distinct PV lobe rotating just north of the lakes. This look shows better promise and flexibility then what we were seeing 2 days ago. 

So what does all this mean? Well the look 2 days ago was a fairly rigid look that depended more so on the whimsy of the PV placement in northern Canada. This PV placement, with it being so far north argued against seeing this eastern trough dig substantially into the US. The fact we also saw continual interaction between the PV and the 50/50 also argued for a broad flat trough in the east. All in all, a look that probably favored any northern stream energy to pass well to our north without any amplification until it was well north and east of our area.

Now the setup being shown overnight isn't what I would consider a great look by far, but it actually gives me a little hope. We preferably want to see a sharper, deeper trough that would allow any NS energy to pass underneath us and the EPS now shows the possibility (GEFS also seems to be moving towards the EPS in this setup). With a distinct PV lobe we would no longer be depending on the PV setup in northern Canada, which was a fairly rigid setup without much play, as much as we are now depending on the lobe just north of the lakes which has a great deal more flexibility. Now here is where I see the possibilities. We have seen over the last several days of runs that the blocking in Greenland has become much stronger and further west based to where we now see ridging between the PV and the 50/50 which in turn is inducing a PV lobe to break off because of this blocking. Now let us just suppose we continue to see a strengthening of this blocking over subsequent runs. What that would most likely do is to then force that PV lobe farther south and/or west dragging the eastern trough along with it. A shift of 200/300 miles with that lobe actually would  be a great look for the east coast. With a sharper, deeper trough situated down through the lakes, west based -NAO and a 50/50 the setup would argue for the possibility of northern stream energy Miller b'ing off the coast. Now we normally don't do well with Miller b's but that doesn't mean we can't cash out with an inch or two as that northern stream energy passes underneath us. And who knows, get that pv lobe to drop a little farther south....

 

[showmethesnow]

Seems that JB is hinting at similarities in the long range with the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. 

Hmmm. Guess I will have to get another month of weatherbell after all. Or not. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Seems that JB is hinting at similarities in the long range with the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. 

Hmmm. Guess I will have to get another month of weatherbell after all. Or not. 

Our area had 15-20" from that. Northwest VA really got crushed. Doubt it. 

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Seems that JB is hinting at similarities in the long range with the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. 

Hmmm. Guess I will have to get another month of weatherbell after all. Or not. 

We'll get another Ash Wednesday storm once we finally experience another Kennedy inaugural storm that he has been predicting/suggesting ever since I started reading him.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We'll get another Ash Wednesday storm once we finally experience another Kennedy inaugural storm that he has been predicting/suggesting ever since I started reading him.

I am still waiting for the Vodka cold he promised us almost 20 years ago.  

[psuhoffman]

Wow look at what it took up in Canada to get something to track under us on the 6z gfs. Crazy that we need something that extreme. There was good blocking before that and a system goes north. Only when the block retrogrades all the way down into northern Quebec does it do us any good. 

 

[HighStakes]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I am still waiting for the Vodka cold he promised us almost 20 years ago.  

15 years ago to be exact. Lol.

[showmethesnow]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wow look at what it took up in Canada to get something to track under us on the 6z gfs. Crazy that we need something that extreme. There was good blocking before that and a system goes north. Only when the block retrogrades all the way down into northern Quebec does it do us any good. 

 

It's an off run of the GFS and an op somewhat at range to boot so I would take it with a little grain of salt but it does mirror my thoughts from earlier today on the possible evolution we could see. Like the fact also that it traps the lobe underneath the blocking for a couple of days. Definitely possibilities if it were to play out in some fashion like this.

Edit: I was referencing earlier in the run about day 9 onward not what you have posted at hour 384.

[North Balti Zen]

I mean, that's a March 14 map. March 14. March. 14. 

At that point, you are basically hoping for a late season borderline historic storm for the beltways to have a chance. This thread becomes a MD/PA border only hope zone somewhere around March 14. 

[psuhoffman]

my point was that right there does is no good. Somehow 48 hours later a storm is cutting to our north and the east is ridging. Yes eventually something might dig enough after that but it's crazy how much we seem to be fighting here. 

[psuhoffman]

And where is the good for nothing southern stream when you need it. And no I'm not expecting a wave train down there but something, anything, over a good 10 day period when it could do us some good would be nice. God knows back in January when there was no cold at all we had a parade of cut off southern systems coming across.  Now that there is plenty of cold around NOTHING. It's totally MIA. 

[psuhoffman]

Lol at the day 13-16 period on the gfs. Two runs in a row that goes crazy with the trough in that period. Two snows in a row this run.  Last run was two close misses but same idea.  That's probably our best chance and showmetgesnow pointed out well how it could evolve earlier and two op runs in a row at least do that. 

Split the PV and that allows ridging to pop in between which cuts the day 8-9 system but behind that if the 50/50 low is the more dominant feature compared to the PV near AK then the block could retrograde and then dump the whole trough into the east.  That would be an extreme enough setup to override the problems in the pacific. It's a pipe dream though. 

[CAPE]

LOL the "good" window keeps moving. Thats a pretty interesting h5 look towards mid month on the 12z GFS. 

PSU- I was looking at that cutter you were discussing in previous posts. Its just a Pacific wrecking ball. I looked at 850 up to 250mb. As depicted, theres really no other place that storm is going to go other than to our NW.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol at the day 13-16 period on the gfs. Two runs in a row that goes crazy with the trough in that period. Two snows in a row this run.  Last run was two close misses but same idea.  That's probably our best chance and showmetgesnow pointed out well how it could evolve earlier and two op runs in a row at least do that. 

Split the PV and that allows ridging to pop in between which cuts the day 8-9 system but behind that if the 50/50 low is the more dominant feature compared to the PV near AK then the block could retrograde and then dump the whole trough into the east.  That would be an extreme enough setup to override the problems in the pacific. It's a pipe dream though. 

Yes he did point that out. Too bad it will likely never evolve like that. That would be something though, wouldn't it?

[CAPE]

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

LOL the "good" window keeps moving. Thats a pretty interesting h5 look towards mid month on the 12z GFS. 

PSU- I was looking at that cutter you were discussing in previous posts. Its just a Pacific wrecking ball. I looked at 850 up to 250mb. As depicted, theres really no other place that storm is going to go other to our NW.

The good window to me was always the second week of march after the cutter. A couple runs teased with maybe a clipper first or some weird anafront snow with the cutter but after was always when the trough dug enough to do us any legit shots. The cutter seems delayed a day now. The models are keying on a second vort coming in vs the lead so the cutter may fee back 24 hours but other then that our window is the same really. 

Another problem is the start of the window seems to be dry but that's also been showing up for a while. So after the cutter we get cold but dry for a few days. Some runs teased with something there around the 9-10th but they were never the majority. It's always looked cold but dry. But what has always been a possibility is as things relax is the blocking holds long enough we could get something to dive into the trough.

 The guidance as a whole is pretty undecided on that. A lot of runs break things down and then another cutter comes day 15-16. But some of it does what the gfs the last two runs and really digs the trough in the east and the blocking holds enough to have potential. I would bet against it but it's not a done deal. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

LOL the "good" window keeps moving. Thats a pretty interesting h5 look towards mid month on the 12z GFS. 

PSU- I was looking at that cutter you were discussing in previous posts. Its just a Pacific wrecking ball. I looked at 850 up to 250mb. As depicted, theres really no other place that storm is going to go other than to our NW.

Oh and about the cutter, part of what allows that to cut also sets up the better look later. The split between the lower heights to our northeast and in western Canada allows ridging in between. But that also then brings in the chance of the more extreme solutions later. So I guess it's ok. As long as it's delayed not denied. 

[psuhoffman]

We should probably just look at this and be happy for 6 hours...

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh and about the cutter, part of what allows that to cut also sets up the better look later. The split between the lower heights to our northeast and in western Canada allows ridging in between. But that also then brings in the chance of the more extreme solutions later. So I guess it's ok. As long as it's delayed not denied. 

What ends up happening with the PV is going to be key as to whether or not we get a legit good period in spite of the hostile Pacific. The 12z Euro sort of did it yesterday building the mega block and at least kept the PV from moving into AK making things even worse. But the eastern trough that developed in response was pretty underwhelming. The 12z GFS took it a step further today.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

What ends up happening with the PV is going to be key as to whether or not we get a legit good period in spite of the hostile Pacific. The 12z Euro sort of did it yesterday building the mega block and at least kept the PV from moving into AK making things even worse. But the eastern trough that developed in response was pretty underwhelming. The 12z GFS took it a step further today.

Ggem looks pretty good to me. Day 10 seems to be setting up something after. Pretty good vort diving in from the upper Midwest and no way it's cutting given the 50/50 and trough position. 

ETA: the ggem actually suppressed the clipper day 4-5 south of us too so perhaps that isn't a done deal.  It is the ggem though  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ggem looks pretty good to me. Day 10 seems to be setting up something after. Pretty good vort diving in from the upper Midwest and no way it's cutting given the 50/50 and trough position. 

 

Yeah I saw that too. It would seem that would take a track underneath as depicted.