CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: It is a beauty but the trough response over the eastern us is pretty pathetic considering. It holds potential for sure just disappointing that given such extreme blocking all we can get is a very small area of somewhat low heights in the northeast. Agreed. I know I say this a lot, but the ePac is a constant thorn in our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Comparing 12z EPS with 0z, subtle differences at h5. NA looks pretty much the same. Some slight differences wrt to the AK trough, an overall flatter ridge in the western US, and the trough is not as deep (or cold) in the east days 9-12. Similar to the GEFS, a small step back. Not a trend..yet. Was just going to post this. Definitely took a negative turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agreed. I know I say this a lot, but the ePac is a constant thorn in our side. Yea and I don't think the extremely warm sst off the east coast helps any either. It just seems that any cold response to what should be favorable factors is extremely muted each time. Blocking like that should have a much bigger trough associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Was just going to post this. Definitely took a negative turn. Everything did. It could possibly flip again but I do think it's a trend because it showed up across all the guidance. The blocking is there but the response over the conus is being muted today on the guidance. The attempt at establishing a trough in the east is first blunted by the southeast ridge somewhat and then quickly fought off by ridging from the west forced by the crap pacific pattern. The same thing happened back a couple weeks ago. But the block is stronger this time and the time of year and I was hopeful we could get a different result this time. Still might but today, after several pretty good days of trends, felt like a punch to the gut. It's still not a bad look and couod easily produce so I don't want to over react to one bad run but it's a downer and impossible to ignore given how things have gone this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Everything did. It could possibly flip again but I do think it's a trend because it showed up across all the guidance. The blocking is there but the response over the conus is being muted today on the guidance. The attempt at establishing a trough in the east is first blunted by the southeast ridge somewhat and then quickly fought off by ridging from the west forced by the crap pacific pattern. The same thing happened back a couple weeks ago. But the block is stronger this time and the time of year and I was hopeful we could get a different result this time. Still might but today, after several pretty good days of trends, felt like a punch to the gut. It's still not a bad look and couod easily produce so I don't want to over react to one bad run but it's a downer and impossible to ignore given how things have gone this year. We could really use an 18z GFS happy hour pick me up. I have already made a vodka tonic, as the thunder rumbles in the distance. Need the rain but don't need damaging winds or hail. I will find out pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Everything did. It could possibly flip again but I do think it's a trend because it showed up across all the guidance. The blocking is there but the response over the conus is being muted today on the guidance. The attempt at establishing a trough in the east is first blunted by the southeast ridge somewhat and then quickly fought off by ridging from the west forced by the crap pacific pattern. The same thing happened back a couple weeks ago. But the block is stronger this time and the time of year and I was hopeful we could get a different result this time. Still might but today, after several pretty good days of trends, felt like a punch to the gut. It's still not a bad look and couod easily produce so I don't want to over react to one bad run but it's a downer and impossible to ignore given how things have gone this year. I'm with you. Really thought we would see a better response with the trough considering the blocking and we did for a few runs. PAC has been killing us all year so why shouldn't it do so now as well. I am going to give it another day or two of runs to see if it can turn around otherwise I think I am going to call it quits and pack it in for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 The geps is even worse. Never gets lower heights down to our latitude at all. Again the blocking is there but the cold gets shunted off to our north and can't dig as the pacific blasts ridging across the conus under the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 One problem all winter has been the inability to line up both the pacific and Atlantic. Right now the epo is negative but the nao is raging positive. Then as the Atlantic improves the pacific pattern goes to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The geps is even worse. Never gets lower heights down to our latitude at all. Again the blocking is there but the cold gets shunted off to our north and can't dig as the pacific blasts ridging across the conus under the blocking. The ridge/trough position around AK has been backwards almost the entire winter. Its 180 degrees out of phase for this upcoming period, and will likely wreck a classic NA set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The ridge/trough position around AK has been backwards almost the entire winter. Its 180 degrees out of phase for this upcoming period, and will likely wreck a classic NA set up. Heard you guys mention that AK ridge all winter...could we label that as one of the main culprits for what we've seen (or haven't seen)? Or is it the Pacific in general? (La Niña) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The ridge/trough position around AK has been backwards almost the entire winter. Its 180 degrees out of phase for this upcoming period, and will likely wreck a classic NA set up. We have had a decent ridge position there at times but only when the Atlantic side was crap. The two have never been timed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We have had a decent ridge position there at times but only when the Atlantic side was crap. The two have never been timed up. Yes it has been good on a few occasions, but like you said the Atlantic has generally been crappy during those periods. Thus the crap winter. Getting any meaningful, sustained NA block has been an uphill battle, but expected given the state of the QBO. If this winter was to be "good", it needed to be primarily Pacific driven. That has not worked out at all. eta- worked out very well for the western third of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes it has been good on a few occasions, but like you said the Atlantic has generally been crappy during those periods. Thus the crap winter. Getting any meaningful, sustained NA block has been an uphill battle, but expected given the state of the QBO. If this winter was to be "good", it needed to be Pacific driven. That has not worked out at all. eta- worked out very well for the western third of the US. Wish I would have made that snow trip when you did. Except I think I would have crashed down at my brother's place in Va Beach. Think they had over a foot of snow down there if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Wish I would have made that snow trip when you did. Except I think I would have crashed down at my brother's place in Va Beach. Think they had over a foot of snow down there if I recall correctly. In retrospect that was a really good decision. So glad I went. Even though I ended up with 6" imby, it was relatively mundane compared to being at the beach with 10" of wind driven powder. At least I have that one good memory in this otherwise wretched winter. And I think VA Beach underperformed a bit. Lots of sleet iirc. As it turned out, Rehoboth was pretty much a sweet spot for an all snow event in the MA with 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Well at least the weak ass clipper is still on the table on the 18z GFS for next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 One more ensemble cycle where we take another step back, and I will likely let 007 take my snow weenie soul for the winter. But not yet, 007! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 18z was a much better op run. The flow is much more suppressed in general letting systems dig under us or at least get close. And it lost the cutter day 9. The system around day 10 was close to being much bigger. March is the time of year those things can dive into a trough and go nuts. Today was bad in general but this run is a reminder that most of the threats are still far enough out that significant changes will happen. Hopefully those changes are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: One more ensemble cycle where we take another step back, and I will likely let 007 take my snow weenie soul for the winter. But not yet, 007! Not great that's for sure. That look is ok for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Not great that's for sure. That look is ok for January. 18z gefs was an improvement on 12z. Not back to where it was yesterday but better then this mornings awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: One more ensemble cycle where we take another step back, and I will likely let 007 take my snow weenie soul for the winter. But not yet, 007! I was about to say the same after looking at the 18z GEFS. Also, the D10-15 2m temps are average to just slight below average. That won't cut it as we get into mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 The clipper look so good for NYC. As expected. It'll be just south of Bangor by tomorrow's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Each run looking worse than the previous. I need to just give up yet I continue to track failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Each run looking worse than the previous. I need to just give up yet I continue to track failure. I can't believe u had any hope to begin with. It's over. I'm serious. This isn't some joke. We're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I can't believe u had any hope to begin with. It's over. I'm serious. This isn't some joke. We're done. Yeah I know. Just a tough pill to swallow. I fell for it one more time even though I thought I wouldn't. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Each run looking worse than the previous. I need to just give up yet I continue to track failure. Again I must be looking at it wrong because from my quick glance of the h5 loop I thought both the 0z gefs and geps were an improvement over the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Psu - at some point in this winter of fail - doesnt the disconnect from what looks like a good set-up upstairs and crap at the surface as we close in become the norm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Chances for a historic winter continue to improve; Friday's clipper is now passing to our north and we look to have sprinkles or light rain and temperatures near 40. The EURO pushes temperatures well into the 60s on Sunday and Monday (during our cold window) before a strong cold front brings post-frontal rain showers. Still a chance for a significant low to pass to our south as we transition out of this "cold" pattern but chances that it brings snow are minuscule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 You know folks, some years, it just can't snow...and this is one of them. Lol But next year will be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Again I must be looking at it wrong because from my quick glance of the h5 loop I thought both the 0z gefs and geps were an improvement over the previous run. There were improvements, but to what end is the question. The general trend has been not as deep or cold with the eastern trough. The pacific is crappy, so the run to run differences basically reflect the degree of "negative" impact here. There will be some sort of trough in the east, but how cold and how deep depends mostly on location and strength of that trough over AK and the exact location and amplitude of downstream ridging. The Euro op wants to displace the PV into AK or even the Gulf of AK, and if that happens W Canada would be totally flooded with mild air and our source region devoid of cold. Now the GFS/GEFS and EPS do not get the PV that far south and west, but the general trend over several runs has still been not as cold with more of a weak sauce eastern trough. Still in the game. Would be nice to see some better trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 8 hours ago, losetoa6 said: I would think Rehoboth has to be at climo for the season. Yes I believe the lower eastern shore and all of southern DE are at or above climo. Those same areas also jackpotted with that small scale event a couple weeks back with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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