Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Remarkably so. Must have been a re-run off old data. Crap. I forgot about that. We toss. Or hug the 12z gfs. I'll go with that instead either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I really like where we're sitting at this point. Temps are really impressive too.... lower 20s early Sunday afternoon in mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Even the suppressed storm in Jan came north in the last 36. Or west, depending on point of view since they all go north at some point even if it's over the Atlantic. The best thing about this run is that 85% of this forum would still get 8-12" if it shifted 100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Fringed We'll post lots of pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Remarkably so. Must have been a re-run off old data. Are we sure that guy wasn't from Carbondale? Lol. Man happy hour GFS is back! We are sitting pretty for the moment...said cautiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: And of course the eps is starting to light up the follow up wave after Sunday. Lol. I think there is a correlation there. The runs that have been more south with Sunday end up with a better solution around the 14/15th. Ggem and JMA are examples but something I've noted the last few days is the connection there on runs and within the ensemble members. I do think there is a way we get both but it's a delicate balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: Are we sure that guy wasn't from Carbondale? Lol. Man happy hour GFS is back! We are sitting pretty for the moment...said cautiously. Haha, never thought of that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fringed Indeed. Even worse up this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fringed Not a chance. You've worked too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fringed I'm expecting it to nudge back north. Also you'll get the Kuchera ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Would like to see a stronger storm/more precip, but it's still rather early in the game. Shift everything 100 miles north and we are all looking at over a foot probably. I'm probably getting a bit greedy but I want something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Amazing gradient... im in Danville, VA, GFS gives us maybe an inch, just north into Lynchburg, over a foot! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fringed I know you're probably being a bit tongue-in-cheek there! But hardly looks like you'd be truly fringed just looking at the snow and precip plots posted a bit earlier. 12" area is just south of DC it appears, 7"+ in NE MD. Would be remarkable cold powder for everyone. I watched the 18z GFS roll in thinking "holy F***, unreal!" to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Amazing gradient... im in Danville, VA, GFS gives us maybe an inch, just north into Lynchburg, over a foot! Wow Yeah, a lot of us are currently focused on the northern edge of the good QPF. But that southern edge with the rain-snow line is gonna be wicked wherever it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Fozz said: I'm expecting it to nudge back north. Also you'll get the Kuchera ratio. I'm mostly kidding at this point. Lots of trends left to go I'm not overly concerned by any one op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Agreed. I'd definitely give PSU at least 12"+ for the work he's put in this winter. Oh my. I'll just say no comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Agreed. I'd definitely give PSU at least 12"+ for the work he's put in this winter. Wish it worked that way. If it goes down the way the euro or gfs hints it would suck but that's the way it goes sometimes. I'll live to chase the next one even if it's next year. Or 2 days later according to some runs. Maybe I'll take a trip down to my sister in Reston VA for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'll post lots of pics Looking at the EPS members the ones that are the most suppressed are the ones that have a big snow day 8. So maybe we're ok either way. We get one or the other. E51 is crazy. Take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Looking at the EPS members the ones that are the most suppressed are the ones that have a big snow day 8. So maybe we're ok either way. We get one or the other. E51 is crazy. Take a look. Believe that was mostly from one storm as well. I would take 2+ feet in one shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I want Friday, Sunday, and day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I want Friday, Sunday, and day 8. It's called a car. You buy gas, then it takes you places. You see Rusty...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The 18z GEFS says Friday will be mostly a non-event. The individual members aren't out yet on WxBell but the mean snowfall is 1" from Baltimore north. 2" just north of the PA border. 0.5" runs through NW DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Famous last words: I like where we sit looking at the 18z GEFS for the weekend storm. Snowfall mean is 4" for DC and 5" for RIC. The control bullseyes Central VA with ~10" for DC. There's enough members with their precip maxes either north or south of the area that we can afford some shifts either way and still be in for a potentially decent event. That said, more members favor a precip max (at the moment) for central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 18z GEFS says any option still on the table, but a nice 4" mean for DC... has a couple of north solutions, good bit of southern solutions and several that look a lot like the op (including the control). Maybe slightly weaker on average. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Fringed We got PSU screaming fringed and Matt with the face. Its game on now. You cant ask for a better pass at 850 or 500. Now if we can get it to hold for just a couple of more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Little less weenie run of gefs. Still very good just less wow. The Sunday threat isn't changed much but it backed off the day 8-12 period. Still has some hits around day 13-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We got PSU screaming fringed and Matt with the face. Its game on now. You cant ask for a better pass at 850 or 500. Now if we can get it to hold for just a couple of more days. Would be nice if the whole sub-forum could get nailed by the potential weekend storm, and it is possible as its a west to east kinda deal. Problem is it does not work that way a lot of the time. So there may very well be some here that are very happy with the outcome, and others not. Unfortunately, when its gets right down to it, at game time, there is no WE here. Its all about MBY. Sad but true. Of course we could very well all get screwed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just toggling from the 18Z GFS run yesterday through the 18Z GFS run today (so 5 runs), each one has trended the same way for Sunday-- south, with the smallest slide happening between the 12Z and 18Z today. The Euro on the other hand has been lurching back and forth between the 0Z and 12Z runs between more north and more south. Maybe it's window is narrowing today as well. As people have been saying, got to be patient. Still a couple of days to go before we know. But at least the disagreement of if it's going to be 30 or 70 on Sunday is done, but that wasn't even answered until yesterday. One goal post removed and the rest remain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Would be nice if the whole sub-forum could get nailed by the potential weekend storm, and it is possible as its a west to east kinda deal. Problem is it does not work that way a lot of the time. So there may very well be some here that are very happy with the outcome, and others not. Unfortunately, when its gets right down to it, at game time, there is no WE here. Its all about MBY. Sad but true. Of course we could very well all get screwed lol. Our subforum is so diverse when it comes to weather that it is a rare storm indeed that makes everyone happy. But in this case if everyone can get 3 inches out of it they cant complain after the winter we just endured. And this is the type of track that can do that. And I agree completely. When it comes to snow it is an IMBY deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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