March medium/long range disco

[psuhoffman]

This is the cold shot we were tracking that is still there and still as impressive if not more so then it was, but its day 10-15 not the cold thats showing up day 5-10 when we were supposed to be torching just a few days ago.  

[psuhoffman]

Yes I am frustrated that the details within the individual op runs seem to be bad and we are not seeing a lot of hits showing up (yet?) but at the same time the pattern is trending better, if anything, the last few runs so some of the posts were confusing me.  I think some are seeing the new developments in the day 5-10 period and confusing that with the really cold shot that may be coming after day 10.  I have said my peace about the issues we are having and how this could fail, but at the same time this is by far the best pattern setup we have had all year so I am not closing the book yet.  The models are just now picking up on the blocking developing and were in transition and just getting into range so lets let this shake out the next few days and see what comes of it.  The setup is promising, even if the details on the ops are not yet.  

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes I am frustrated that the details within the individual op runs seem to be bad and we are not seeing a lot of hits showing up (yet?) but at the same time the pattern is trending better, if anything, the last few runs so some of the posts were confusing me.  I think some are seeing the new developments in the day 5-10 period and confusing that with the really cold shot that may be coming after day 10.  I have said my peace about the issues we are having and how this could fail, but at the same time this is by far the best pattern setup we have had all year so I am not closing the book yet.  The models are just now picking up on the blocking developing and were in transition and just getting into range so lets let this shake out the next few days and see what comes of it.  The setup is promising, even if the details on the ops are not yet.  

I think some are focusing on the surface temps when they should probably be focusing on the 850's. At this time of year that is probably a mistake when the models can bust bad on the surface depending on cloud cover and lack of and/or precip and lack of.

[BTRWx]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is what I am talking about...these are for the same time, first from 72 hours ago and the second from today.  The blocking is trending stronger each run and the temperature profile over the eastern CONUS is responding and trending colder each tun.  The day 5-10 period is still low probability for us as the boundary still seems a bit north of where we need it but its certainly not the torch it was looking like a few days ago.  The day 10-15 period cold shot is still there and that was the one that was showing up at the very end of day 16 on the ensembles a few days ago....now its around day 11-13 moving closer in time.  The first period may continue to trend colder and then we might have a shot, the second period day 10 on might be our real shot.  

I like how these particular images are within a more reasonable time period for ensemble means.  I'll be sure to bring winter back with me from upstate New York 10 days from now.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Don't care one bit if it doesn't snow, just give me a couple nights in the upper teens to kill off all the friggin' bugs that are already out.

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes I am frustrated that the details within the individual op runs seem to be bad and we are not seeing a lot of hits showing up (yet?) but at the same time the pattern is trending better, if anything, the last few runs so some of the posts were confusing me.  I think some are seeing the new developments in the day 5-10 period and confusing that with the really cold shot that may be coming after day 10.  I have said my peace about the issues we are having and how this could fail, but at the same time this is by far the best pattern setup we have had all year so I am not closing the book yet.  The models are just now picking up on the blocking developing and were in transition and just getting into range so lets let this shake out the next few days and see what comes of it.  The setup is promising, even if the details on the ops are not yet.  

I think many are just plain shot or gun shy at what has been growing legs.  I think some/many see it, but I know my snow legs are all too weary.  I've been quitely happy w/ what we've been seeing in the last couple of days, but like someone else stated, 2m or 850s havent yet reflected the changes at 500, which if true, should correct at lower levels/surface.   HM seems to be honkin....which is always a plus, as he is about as real as it gets and no rosy/snow covered goggles w/ him. 

I've not really looked in depth, but I'm wondering what mechanism is responsible for the potential changes.  I suggested wavelenghts w/ the transition to spring, but havent heard much about SSW/MJO or any other factors that may be in play.  I've sorta checked out w/ long range...like many.  I'd be happy to start trolling the models once again if we can get something into the mid range.

Nut

 

[Interstate]

Do we still need the Ridge over Japan?

[BTRWx]

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I think many are just plain shot or gun shy at what has been growing legs.  I think some/many see it, but I know my snow legs are all too weary.  I've been quitely happy w/ what we've been seeing in the last couple of days, but like someone else stated, 2m or 850s havent yet reflected the changes at 500, which if true, should correct at lower levels/surface.   HM seems to be honkin....which is always a plus, as he is about as real as it gets and no rosy/snow covered goggles w/ him. 

I've not really looked in depth, but I'm wondering what mechanism is responsible for the potential changes.  I suggested wavelenghts w/ the transition to spring, but havent heard much about SSW/MJO or any other factors that may be in play.  I've sorta checked out w/ long range...like many.  I'd be happy to start trolling the models once again if we can get something into the mid range.

Nut

 

The lower level conditions from ensembles often seem to lag to me.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm looking at the gefs surface temps, and there isn't a single day in the whole run where high temps at my house are less than 40 degrees.  I would also disagree with the notion that we can look at 850's as a guide to precip type.  Yes, I do that in January, but I think in March it is much more likely to have a wide discrepancy between the 850 level and the surface with the surface likely much warmer. And I'm not even seeing 850 temp maps, but deviation from normal.  What's normal in 2 weeks?  

Now, if you are looking for a storm that produce snow overnight when surface temps have a chance to be near to below freezing, I suppose you might have a good argument.  I just don't happen to be looking for that. 

Overall, I just don't think the cold being modeled can cut it (unless we are talking night precip).  I think the cold push isn't enough, and it's too far east.  You guys might end up being right, and it might work, but I'm highly skeptical.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm looking at the gefs surface temps, and there isn't a single day in the whole run where high temps at my house are less than 40 degrees.  I would also disagree with the notion that we can look at 850's as a guide to precip type.  Yes, I do that in January, but I think in March it is much more likely to have a wide discrepancy between the 850 level and the surface with the surface likely much warmer. And I'm not even seeing 850 temp maps, but deviation from normal.  What's normal in 2 weeks?  

Now, if you are looking for a storm that produce snow overnight when surface temps have a chance to be near to below freezing, I suppose you might have a good argument.  I just don't happen to be looking for that. 

Overall, I just don't think the cold being modeled can cut it (unless we are talking night precip).  I think the cold push isn't enough, and it's too far east.  You guys might end up being right, and it might work, but I'm highly skeptical.

Keep in mind your looking at a mean so its averaging the temperature from all the members together.  Its not going to be that cold on a sunny day in march so your getting all the members where its NOT precipitating and its 45 degrees.  But if the dewpoint is 20 and the air is cold enough aloft it would snow, even during the day, given the right storm track.  So perhaps 2 members have a storm that day and are 35 for a high with snow, but the other 18 members are 42-45 degrees, the mean will be 40 but thats perfectly fine.  Some of those members might have the storm the next day, but then the two snow members are showing 42 degrees...and so on.  Your not going to see a look much colder then that this late at that range.  Its just not going to happen.  As we move closer as the outliers come out, and models agree on the day of a storm, then we can worry about surface temps.  Right now your seeing a smoothed out mean that probably includes a few members that show 55-60 degrees and really skew things.  

[psuhoffman]

This is the surface temp anomalies.  If this isnt good enough from 10+ days out, then honestly it would NEVER snow in March.  This is a pretty cold signal for that range.  

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Keep in mind your looking at a mean so its averaging the temperature from all the members together.  Its not going to be that cold on a sunny day in march so your getting all the members where its NOT precipitating and its 45 degrees.  But if the dewpoint is 20 and the air is cold enough aloft it would snow, even during the day, given the right storm track.  So perhaps 2 members have a storm that day and are 35 for a high with snow, but the other 18 members are 42-45 degrees, the mean will be 40 but thats perfectly fine.  Some of those members might have the storm the next day, but then the two snow members are showing 42 degrees...and so on.  Your not going to see a look much colder then that this late at that range.  Its just not going to happen.  As we move closer as the outliers come out, and models agree on the day of a storm, then we can worry about surface temps.  Right now your seeing a smoothed out mean that probably includes a few members that show 55-60 degrees and really skew things.  

Good points.

I can't see the mean 850's but I know on the ops I've been looking for that -10 degree line.  Anything above that and I think it gets tough because it always warms as precip moves in from the south or southwest.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the surface temp anomalies.  If this isnt good enough from 10+ days out, then honestly it would NEVER snow in March.  This is a pretty cold signal for that range.  

 

I agree it's cold, but cold and dry and the u/levels are not screaming "incoming" imho. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017022412&fh=312&xpos=0&ypos=0

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the surface temp anomalies.  If this isnt good enough from 10+ days out, then honestly it would NEVER snow in March.  This is a pretty cold signal for that range.  

 

Perhaps you are correct "as a mean" and "as a signal".  If taken "as is", however, that wouldn't even be close, especially since it's a 12z temp map.  The avg high in Winchester on March 9 is 49.  -5C is -9F.  That still leaves me at 40, at 12z.

I think your point about the mean is valid.  That -5C avg probably has some -10C and some +10C in it.  The -10C members would be ok.

I guess I just need to see it in an op run (and it has to be better than -5C  )

 

[showmethesnow]

Eps has improved from its 00Z run for the day 10+ window. Still has the west based -NAO as well as the 50/50. Better ridging building in the west. Trough digging deeper in the east. MSLP low anomalies building southward. An improving subtropical and mid latitude jet setup. 850's cold anomalies are penetrating and expanding much deeper and stronger into the CONUS. All and all a good run. 

[Wonderdog]

43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Perhaps you are correct "as a mean" and "as a signal".  If taken "as is", however, that wouldn't even be close, especially since it's a 12z temp map.  The avg high in Winchester on March 9 is 49.  -5C is -9F.  That still leaves me at 40, at 12z.

I think your point about the mean is valid.  That -5C avg probably has some -10C and some +10C in it.  The -10C members would be ok.

I guess I just need to see it in an op run (and it has to be better than -5C  )

 

 

 

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the surface temp anomalies.  If this isnt good enough from 10+ days out, then honestly it would NEVER snow in March.  This is a pretty cold signal for that range.  

 

So this map looks encouraging. for now. Two days ago it looked entirely different. And we're talking about two weeks from now. If the colder trend were happening at day six or seven, then I think we may have something. And the knowledgeable posters in this forum knows how the op runs and the ensembles have fared in the long term. And as Mitch said, it's a dry period anyway. But it is March and as Gordon Barnes used to say, in March the atmosphere is in a war between the coming spring and a departing winter. And we all know how that almost always ends. (Trying reverse psychology). 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the surface temp anomalies.  If this isnt good enough from 10+ days out, then honestly it would NEVER snow in March.  This is a pretty cold signal for that range.  

 

I'd like to lose that cold in Alaska, otherwise it's a good look. I hope something meaningful comes out of it.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Esp has improved from its 00Z run for the day 10+ window. Still has the west based -NAO as well as the 50/50. Better ridging building in the west. Trough digging deeper in the east. MSLP low anomalies building southward. An improving subtropical and mid latitude jet setup. 850's cold anomalies are penetrating and expanding much deeper and stronger into the CONUS. All and all a good run. 

Looking at h5, it continues to be a pretty nice look. Based on whats presently advertised, I still think March 7-10 is sort of a sweet spot for something. Problem is there is not much of anything happening in the southern stream. For now it seems a NS system is favored for that period. Would be good for much of New England, not so much at our latitude.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I agree it's cold, but cold and dry and the u/levels are not screaming "incoming" imho. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017022412&fh=312&xpos=0&ypos=0

Your right. Our bigger problem right now is getting a storm during that window not temps imo. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Perhaps you are correct "as a mean" and "as a signal".  If taken "as is", however, that wouldn't even be close, especially since it's a 12z temp map.  The avg high in Winchester on March 9 is 49.  -5C is -9F.  That still leaves me at 40, at 12z.

I think your point about the mean is valid.  That -5C avg probably has some -10C and some +10C in it.  The -10C members would be ok.

I guess I just need to see it in an op run (and it has to be better than -5C  )

 

It would leave you around 40 at the heat of the day not at 7am. But that's including what have to be a few warm outliers plus all the sunny day members. 40 for a high in march is a cold day. But if it's 40 with a dew point of 20 on a sunny day with a storm coming I think we're ok. But there are only a few members that have a storm at any particular moment at that range so temps are skewed high. If a storm comes into range then we can see what the temp profile is once they agree on when it's precipitating and where. But that's about as cold a look as you can get on an ensemble mean for that range considering the factors I mentioned. 

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 

 

So this map looks encouraging. for now. Two days ago it looked entirely different. And we're talking about two weeks from now. If the colder trend were happening at day six or seven, then I think we may have something. And the knowledgeable posters in this forum knows how the op runs and the ensembles have fared in the long term. And as Mitch said, it's a dry period anyway. But it is March and as Gordon Barnes used to say, in March the atmosphere is in a war between the coming spring and a departing winter. And we all know how that almost always ends. (Trying reverse psychology). 

I think maybe I need to clarify my points a bit. I've been mentioning this time period coming up the second week of march for a while. There were hints we could get a cold period and others have pointed it out. This was a slow steady progression we saw coming not a sudden development.   

That said I've not been bullish on snow. The most optimistic thing I've said is it looks colder and maybe we have a chance. But I see no specific threat yet. 

My points this afternoon were simply about the cold and hypothetical. Given the guidance if it's correct about the day 11-15 pattern, surface temps are not our biggest problem. Getting a system to track just right is. Given that signal for cold I'm betting if we get a low to track off VA beach we will cold enough to snow during that time. That doesn't mean I think it's going to snow. But the bigger reason it won't snow is probably suppression or bad storm track or the models are totally wrong about the pattern. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking at h5, it continues to be a pretty nice look. Based on whats presently advertised, I still think March 7-10 is sort of a sweet spot for something. Problem is there is not much of anything happening in the southern stream. For now it seems a NS system is favored for that period. Would be good for much of New England, not so much at our latitude.

Have to agree, at this point if anything were to pop up it would probably favor the northern stream. Would be a fitting end to this winter watching something Miller B off the Jersey coast and slam New York and north. I do like the fact that we do have the subtropical jet underneath us though. Think that does help to raise the odds a little that we could possibly see some southern stream interaction or maybe even something a little more.  Guess all we can ask for is to see that setup verify and then we let the cards fall as they may.

[BristowWx]

Not sure if will snow but the LR looks way more interesting than at any point this winter.  That's not saying much but not boring in my opinion.  18z shows some promise.

[Bob Chill]

Like you folks said earlier, it's March and the climo fight is getting tougher. The cities are going to need something to track underneath unless some sick arctic air mass moves for a cad event (unlikely). Night onset will prob be needed to. 

With that being said, the pattern should offer enough amplification for a vort to get underneath us. Even southern areas like NC could be in the game. All comes down to timing. And we're a long ways to go before well have an inkling of how shortwaves will track.

I'd say odds of seeing snow fall from the sky are above 50/50 in the d9-16 period. Accumulations more than 1" are a different story. Lol

[BristowWx]

I like our chances.  Keep hopes high but expectations low.  Greenland never looked better.  Blocked up like an all cheese diet.  Let's do this.

[motsco]

temps and timing.  

[stormtracker]

We are masochists.  

[Bob Chill]

53 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We are masochists.  

Just keep looping the 0z gfs. Weeniest run in months. 

[cae]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just keep looping the 0z gfs. Weeniest run in months. 

I was just looking at that.  I'm tempted to post a day-16 snow depth map. 

It shows one way things could work out.  Three events in a week starting March 6th, each with more snow than the last.  It completely melts between events, but the last one leaves me with about 5" on the ground and it looks like there might be more to come.

[yoda]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just keep looping the 0z gfs. Weeniest run in months. 

It def is... lets lock it in