Ji Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I was once. A very long time ago. if it snows this month...i am counting towards next winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I was once. A very long time ago. Hang tough it will be December before you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 FWIW, Euro Precipitation amounts for DCA, BWI, and IAD for Sunday storm are 0.55", 0.26", and 0.44", respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: FWIW, Euro Precipitation amounts for DCA, BWI, and IAD for Sunday storm are 0.55", 0.26", and 0.44", respectively. With a big jump south I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ji said: if it snows this month...i am counting towards next winter..... Thats a good idea but I'm going to count it towards both and maybe 18-19 if I need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Since we're still in spread range, any outcome can't be discounted. If we get to day 4 and the op moves to one of the flush hit solutions were seeing now then the ens will light us up light a tree. If I had to choose which side of the bullseye I would want to be on right now I would choose north every single time. It's highly unlikely we just saw the final solution today. Thanks. Agree with you on preferring the northern edge of the bullseye at this range out, at least in general. It's a bit trickier in a situation like this with cold air pressing. Does it go too far and suppress everything south, or are the models at this range over-doing the extent of the cold (or under-doing the strength of the wave and precip of interest for that matter)? That remains to be seen. I'm not overly worried (yet!), though around here and especially with a winter like this one, we always are extra-sensitive to the other shoe dropping (and crushing hopes)! I'll just hug the 12Z GFS/GEFS until happy hour or 00Z tonight destroys all hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was once. A very long time ago. This is a Jacksonville to Savannah storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'd rather the models show the storm too far south at this point. Easier to get a north trend on a Miller B then to get a Miller A to hook back into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: This is a Jacksonville to Savannah storm. I'll one-up you: Crescent City to Big Bend area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: This is a Jacksonville to Savannah storm. The trend is your friend on that call. 18z gfs will save us all for a couple hours. Or Savannah weenies. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On the edge of my seat waiting to see what the Nam does with Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: On the edge of my seat waiting to see what the Nam does with Friday. Won't be in that sweet spot range until what, 6z Tue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's why I think slowing the Sunday system by about 6-12 hours would be great. Get the Friday system out of the way, give it some room to pop a little ridging in front of itself. I noticed when looking at gefs members that the slower ones were north and faster south wrt Sunday. Probably for the reason you are referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: On the edge of my seat waiting to see what the Nam does with Friday. Well it is way north of the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Rayno's take on the storm threat.... Here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The models go from "flow" to "ebb" and this thread goes dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, smokeybandit said: The models go from "flow" to "ebb" and this thread goes dead! Waiting for the south trend to stop.. then I expect a north trend.. but the more south it goes, the trend to the north gets less helpful. I would like it to halt the south bleed for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Waiting for the south trend to stop.. then I expect a north trend.. but the more south it goes, the trend to the north gets less helpful. I would like it to halt the south bleed for now Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Why? Precip fields tend to be underdone to the north until we get closer to the event. I guess I should not say I expect the track of the low to come north much, but the precip shield for sure. Still gonna be a brutal northern cutoff. As far as actual track, we are a ways away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 GFS a good bit further south with the Friday morning deal. Northern tier would accumulate. Surface temps suck south of 70 even though timing is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: GFS a good bit further south with the Friday morning deal. Northern tier would accumulate. Surface temps suck south of 70 even though timing is good. 950mb is -2/-3 around DC by 12z/15z, so it is possible. That QPF field movement from hour 75 to hour 90 is not something I think I've seen before while living out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS a good bit further south with the Friday morning deal. Northern tier would accumulate. Surface temps suck south of 70 even though timing is good. 90 hours looks like snow on skew? ETA: you specified surface, my bad. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Wisp will wish they hadn't closed for the season. Nice event on Friday for them verbatim on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Precip is a lot lighter in the northern counties, so not much accumulation on this run for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 950mb is -2/-3 around DC by 12z/15z, so it is possible. That QPF field movement from hour 75 to hour 90 is not something I think I've seen before while living out here. Med range events often sneak up on us. We just haven't had any do it since 14-15. Maybe this will be one of those sneaky ones. The complicated part of assessing models for the sunday deal is it's a combo of more suppression out in front but it's being offset somewhat by the storm in the west dropping in at a higher latitude. So the Friday storm coming south could actually end up saving us for a north track instead of ruining it by making it run south. I'm pretty divided on what exactly I'm supposed to be rooting for for Friday. I think I'll just root for snow and let the chips fall down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Looks like very conversational snow Friday with temps in the high 30s in DC. Maybe a few inches up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Here's the time where I think we want an amped vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Here's the time where I think we want an amped vortWe only get them when they cut to Erie pASent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Ji said: We only get them when they cut to Erie pA Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 90 hours looks like snow on skew? ETA: you specified surface, my bad. You're right. Temps fall into the low to mid 30s...could be some surprises in the NW burbs if good rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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