March medium/long range disco

[clskinsfan]

28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'd lock the para gfs up right now and call it a winter.

Yes. That would work. 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Gotcha, but to my eye it looks like we've got more poised to drop down from the upper plains, and given the pattern...and potential snow cover, it may support a reload of sorts.

Truth be told, I sorta promised myself not to get too cranked up post day 7 for a while, and with what lies potentially ahead in the next 8, I'll just focus on that for now.  Gonna be fun.

 

Para just makes me wanna steal Stormtrackers Avatar as it is tearworthy for many....unfortunately not all.

Nut

 

 

 

To be honest, I really didn't look to hard into the run. Just a couple quick glances so maybe my take is off. With such an active period on our doorstep and energy flying everywhere we are going to see a lot of different solutions on the ops especially after our day 6 storm if not even the Friday event. So I am more so concerned with the ensembles after post day 6 storm and the ops are more an after thought. I am still upbeat for the longer range though, if that is worth anything.

[Bob Chill]

Eps pretty unanimous that the Friday deal is weak and/or north. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Eps pretty unanimous that the Friday deal is weak and/or north. 

good news imho

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't know...Do ya think it's better to see this 6 days out than what the 0z Euro just showed?

models have biases, so at this juncture, you really have to have that weigh into what plausable outcomes can be considered.  GFS does better w/ northern stream, but the Euro has highest skill scores.  So its sorta an educated crap shoot.

I think folks North and South of the Mason Dixon are all in the game and as so many live in this region, 75 miles either way would radically affect those totals.  

Nut

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Eps pretty unanimous that the Friday deal is weak and/or north. 

Probably for the best.

[yoda]

NWS LWX afternoon AFD re weekend:

A wave of low pressure will race across the area late Thursday
night into Friday as a polar front crashes down from the north.
Temperatures should be warm enough to support mainly rain for
most of the CWA with a mix or light snow possible near the
Mason-Dixon line closer to incoming colder air.

The model guidance diverges greatly for the weekend, although
the latest trend has been for a colder/further south solution
with low pressure Saturday night into Sunday. The 12z GFS/00z
ECMWF are the most aggressive with wintry precipitation across
the area, though given the powerful surge of cold from the
north, could see the storm being suppressed a little further
south (an extreme of this scenario is the 12z GGEM/UKMET).
Ensemble spread is high so this is a very changeable forecast.

Of note, this past winter (December-February) ranked as the 3rd
warmest on record in the Washington DC area. The two warmer
winters (1931-32 and 1889-90) both had March snowfalls (4.0"
March 6-7 1932 and 3.0" on March 31 1890), so accumulating
snowfall is not uncommon in March even following an otherwise
very mild winter.

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. That would work. 

DC/NoVa folks would shoot first, ask questions later. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

When you say "out of the way"...Is there something about it that would weaken or suppress the weekend storm? (It seems that storms getting in the way of storms has been a thing a couple times this winter...)

If I understand things properly if the Friday system is much of a system at all, it will flatten the flow behind it and the next wave won't have room to amplify if it's too close.

One of our experts can chime in if I'm missing the boat here.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

good news imho

I tentatively agree. If this ends up as more of an overrunning scenario as today's runs depict, going to all come down to where that boundary is lying.

[stormtracker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I tentatively agree. If this ends up as more of an overrunning scenario as today's runs depict, going to all come down to where that boundary is lying.

Yeah, I think Im on the same page.  The first system is the canary in the coal mine if you will.   

[yoda]

EPS Control through Day 6.5 says congrats C and S VA

[Bob Chill]

A lot of southern misses showing up on the eps. I expected it but it's not pretty to look at. 

[paulythegun]

12z EPS: 

There is no storm

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A lot of southern misses showing up on the eps. I expected it but it's not pretty to look at. 

They are all over the place through Day 7... no real consensus IMO

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To be honest, I really didn't look to hard into the run. Just a couple quick glances so maybe my take is off. With such an active period on our doorstep and energy flying everywhere we are going to see a lot of different solutions on the ops especially after our day 6 storm if not even the Friday event. So I am more so concerned with the ensembles after post day 6 storm and the ops are more an after thought. I am still upbeat for the longer range though, if that is worth anything.

you had me wondering....

day 10 Euro op way diff than Ens.  Ensemble shows a continuation of the weekend pattern.  

[nj2va]

EPS shifted south.  Mean snowfall (through Monday) 1.5" for DC/Balt.  2" PWC south. 3" max in SE VA.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

They are all over the place through Day 7... no real consensus IMO

Almost half miss south or are fringe jobs like the op. I disagree. Not saying it won't shift but I see a clear signal on the panels. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Almost half miss south or are fringe jobs like the op. I disagree. Not saying it won't shift but I see a clear signal on the panels. 

why waste a potentially record snow-less year on a fluke anyway...

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

why waste a potentially record snow-less year on a fluke anyway...

There are some flush hits in there so its far from a disaster but the 12z euro/eps suite favors south for now. The problem with the eps inside of 7 days is it follow the op fairly close most of the time. If 0z moves north so does the eps and on and on. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

There are some flush hits in there so its far from a disaster but the 12z euro/eps suite favors south for now. The problem with the eps inside of 7 days is it follow the op fairly close most of the time. If 0z moves north so does the eps and on and on. 

Bah, this sure has the feel of the southern slider from January.  I'd consider 2-4 inches a win. 

[Bob Chill]

And of course the eps is starting to light up the follow up wave after Sunday. Lol. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There are some flush hits in there so its far from a disaster but the 12z euro/eps suite favors south for now. The problem with the eps inside of 7 days is it follow the op fairly close most of the time. If 0z moves north so does the eps and on and on. 

there are enough operational models with decent hits as of today, so I'm thinking we see something measurable

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

And of course the eps is starting to light up the follow up wave after Sunday. Lol. 

You ok? Lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

There are some flush hits in there so its far from a disaster but the 12z euro/eps suite favors south for now. The problem with the eps inside of 7 days is it follow the op fairly close most of the time. If 0z moves north so does the eps and on and on. 

Interesting.  So the opposite extreme to this, so to speak, would be the 06Z GFS Para which is farther north with a nasty forum war-inducing gradient.  Actually, I guess the UKMet and GFS Para would be the two extremes at this point.  If the Euro wavers a bit more north again at 00Z, then given what you say we'll see the EPS do likewise.  I haven't noticed, but does the GFS/GEFS also tend to do that so much?  It would have been nice to see the EPS come in a bit less decidedly south.

[Cary_Snow95]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

there are enough operational models with decent hits as of today, so I'm thinking we see something measurable

I've bounced over here from the SE forum and I can offer you some words of knowledge... I had every global model giving me 10" in the January storm just hours before it began.. i received .8" of sleet/snow

[Wonderdog]

Spring is coming so if memory serves, cold is overdone. I'm. guessing that the suppressed look has gone as far south as it will go.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Interesting.  So the opposite extreme to this, so to speak, would be the 06Z GFS Para which is farther north with a nasty forum war-inducing gradient.  Actually, I guess the UKMet and GFS Para would be the two extremes at this point.  If the Euro wavers a bit more north again at 00Z, then given what you say we'll see the EPS do likewise.  I haven't noticed, but does the GFS/GEFS also tend to do that so much?  It would have been nice to see the EPS come in a bit less decidedly south.

Since we're still in spread range, any outcome can't be discounted. If we get to day 4 and the op moves to one of the flush hit solutions were seeing now then the ens will light us up light a tree. If I had to choose which side of the bullseye I would want to be on right now I would choose north every single time. It's highly unlikely we just saw the final solution today. 

[Ji]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

in a winter that has found a way to literally miss  us in every possible way...i would think another southern miss is a pretty likely solution

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You ok? Lol

I was once. A very long time ago.