Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We are far enough out there will still be some back and forth with the track. The exact outcome ultimately depends to a large extent on the exact timing and strength of the vortex rotating down under the block. Yes. Exactly. The Friday deal is still evolving. It can change to the point where Sunday is a direct hit but a sheared mess with lower totals than the northern fringe stuff the euro just spit out. Or it could hook the coast with the same track as the euro and crush us with deform stuff. Once we get to Thursday, the track envelope will be narrowed down prerty good and we will have a much clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, it does. Not sure what I was looking at previously when I mentioned the better setup for the follow up but it sure wasn't the 12Z Euro. Pattern pretty much goes into the crapper after our day 6 storm. To my eyes it looks like a relax and potential reload past d10 as ridging out wese seems decent. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I would be so jealous of mappy if the 06z para GFS came about... and all of us DC south would be too... super gradient ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes. Exactly. The Friday deal is still evolving. It can change to the point where Sunday is a direct hit but a sheared mess with lower totals than the northern fringe stuff the euro just spit out. Or it could hook the coast with the same track as the euro and crush us with deform stuff. Once we get to Thursday, the track envelope will be narrowed down prerty good and we will have a much clearer picture. Yea just posted above regarding people take my "worried" too seriously. Just because I'm aware of the risk of how we fail doesn't mean I think it will fail. But I do think south and weak is the bigger risk with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm worried about it. For me especially it's the bigger risk then north trend imo. DC has way more wiggle room then me here. That doesn't mean I think it goes south just I can see how that could happen. Both the first two march 2014 events were lame up here. We can get fringed. I'm talking about the Sunday storm only. NOW it feels like a chase. We are a good to go on seeing a storm when PSU starts worrying about being fringed. Of course heaviest snowfalls will be to the north and west of the cities with the snow mecca of the Mid-Atlantic (PSUland) jackpotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yes. Exactly. The Friday deal is still evolving. It can change to the point where Sunday is a direct hit but a sheared mess with lower totals than the northern fringe stuff the euro just spit out. Or it could hook the coast with the same track as the euro and crush us with deform stuff. Once we get to Thursday, the track envelope will be narrowed down prerty good and we will have a much clearer picture. Just comparing this run with 0z, it was quite a bit different. 0z hooked the storm up the coast and grazed NE iirc, while this run it pretty much went straight out. Look at the differences at h5 wrt to the vortices up north. Thats the stuff that will have an impact and its going to shift around for a while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 There are some really cold temps for March with the Sunday storm. If the temps turn out to be not quite as cold, does that mean that the storm will be positioned a little more north than it is depicted on the EURO? Does suppression in this case mean colder temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes. Exactly. The Friday deal is still evolving. It can change to the point where Sunday is a direct hit but a sheared mess with lower totals than the northern fringe stuff the euro just spit out. Or it could hook the coast with the same track as the euro and crush us with deform stuff. Once we get to Thursday, the track envelope will be narrowed down prerty good and we will have a much clearer picture. 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea just posted above regarding people take my "worried" too seriously. Just because I'm aware of the risk of how we fail doesn't mean I think it will fail. But I do think south and weak is the bigger risk with this. What we should be focusing on is the Friday system. If that turns into a small snow system for us, we're probably screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I would be so jealous of mappy if the 06z para GFS came about... and all of us DC south would be too... super gradient ftl It's a brutally painful run for anyone south of I-70. Massive hit for Baltimore and north, but naso much for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What we should be focusing on is the Friday system. If that turns into a small snow system for us, we're probably screwed. Thats all I have ever been focused on honestly. I have felt that this has to be the one to get it done for days now. "Delayed but not denied" is likely going to fail imo. eta- slightly misread your post but agree. And I am referring to the Sat-Sun event, and not concerned about what may or may not happen beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Just comparing this run with 0z, it was quite a bit different. 0z hooked the storm up the coast and grazed NE iirc, while this run it pretty much went straight out. Look at the differences at h5 wrt to the vortices up north. Thats the stuff that will have an impact and its going to shift around for a while yet. That's why I think slowing the Sunday system by about 6-12 hours would be great. Get the Friday system out of the way, give it some room to pop a little ridging in front of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What we should be focusing on is the Friday system. If that turns into a small snow system for us, we're probably screwed. For all of us or for you northerners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What we should be focusing on is the Friday system. If that turns into a small snow system for us, we're probably screwed. I wrote this in banter before the GFS ran: Quote I'll assume, given our luck, that Friday trends better and we get an inch, but then figure out as the week goes on that the better trend for Friday screwed us for Sunday when that swath goes south along a boundary that sets up further south than optimal thanks to Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'd lock the para gfs up right now and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, yoda said: For all of us or for you northerners? BWI has .7. I would say we are going to be pretty backyard about this. For those of us around Balt City/BWI, I could give a crap about something on Friday if it messes up Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: To my eyes it looks like a relax and potential reload past d10 as ridging out wese seems decent. Nut It looks like there is a possibility of a reload post day 10 but we lose the temps and I am not sure we would be able to recover them if it played out as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd lock the para gfs up right now and call it a winter. Now that would piss off a few people methinks. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Now that would piss off a few people methinks. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=480 I'd riot if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: I'd riot if that happened. There would be blood.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, PDIII said: There would be blood.. Great, now you are making me think of the movie series SAW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: It looks like there is a possibility of a reload post day 10 but we lose the temps and I am not sure we would be able to recover them if it played out as shown. Gotcha, but to my eye it looks like we've got more poised to drop down from the upper plains, and given the pattern...and potential snow cover, it may support a reload of sorts. Truth be told, I sorta promised myself not to get too cranked up post day 7 for a while, and with what lies potentially ahead in the next 8, I'll just focus on that for now. Gonna be fun. Para just makes me wanna steal Stormtrackers Avatar as it is tearworthy for many....unfortunately not all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Now that would piss off a few people methinks. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030606&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=480 I'd post pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, yoda said: I would be so jealous of mappy if the 06z para GFS came about... and all of us DC south would be too... super gradient ftl oh? missed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: oh? missed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I'd riot if that happened. That's the worst gradient I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Great, now you are making me think of the movie series SAW TBH I am just happy the Para didnt completely cave/ fail with suppression. I am thinking that if that happens. That if we get a total fringe job.. tonights euro will be the one to sniff it out. I have no scientific reasoning for that statement.. just years of demoralization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's why I think slowing the Sunday system by about 6-12 hours would be great. Get the Friday system out of the way, give it some room to pop a little ridging in front of itself. When you say "out of the way"...Is there something about it that would weaken or suppress the weekend storm? (It seems that storms getting in the way of storms has been a thing a couple times this winter...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: oh my Don't know...Do ya think it's better to see this 6 days out than what the 0z Euro just showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Don't know...Do ya think it's better to see this 6 days out than what the 0z Euro just showed? Our prayers for a jog north are answered far more frequently than ones for a jog south in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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