Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 And Wes is now driving the 1974 Dodge Monaco 440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, yoda said: FYI -- member e12 of the 12z GEFS has the snowstorm Day 7-8... 6"+... even though it shows nothing through 168 just looked it supresses the Sunday storm then brings up a system a day later and drops 6-10. Some other GEFS members do that. There are so many threats scattered within the mean its hard to keep track. By far the highest probs are with the day 5/6 storm and the day 9-12 period. But there are like 5 distinct waves/threats within the 16 day period and the number of hits is crazy. Most of the runs manage multiple hits from some combo of those waves. Basically holds the pattern long enough and get a wave train parade west to east under the block and.... I am trying hard to remain skeptical but honestly this is a dream pattern setting up. And its not just one threat, we are talking several options to score here and each one is pretty good in some way. And the pattern sets up within the next few days, were not talking about day 10 here. This is going to be utterly cruel if this pattern turns out to be a mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: just looked it supresses the Sunday storm then brings up a system a day later and drops 6-10. Some other GEFS members do that. There are so many threats scattered within the mean its hard to keep track. By far the highest probs are with the day 5/6 storm and the day 9-12 period. But there are like 5 distinct waves/threats within the 16 day period and the number of hits is crazy. Most of the runs manage multiple hits from some combo of those waves. Basically holds the pattern long enough and get a wave train parade west to east under the block and.... I am trying hard to remain skeptical but honestly this is a dream pattern setting up. And its not just one threat, we are talking several options to score here and each one is pretty good in some way. And the pattern sets up within the next few days, were not talking about day 10 here. This is going to be utterly cruel if this pattern turns out to be a mirage. Haven't see such an extended period of potential in quite awhile. Maybe 09/10? What I like seeing, and it can be seen with 12z gfs in regards to the day 9 storm which tracks to our west, is that even though the pattern relaxes it is is very brief and there is a quick reload. To be honest, if we get through this period without seeing some decent snow I may just give up tracking and take up ice fishing during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Save this. Weeniest gefs run in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't see such an extended period of potential in quite awhile. Maybe 09/10? What I like seeing, and it can be seen with 12z gfs in regards to the day 9 storm which tracks to our west, is that even though the pattern relaxes it is is very brief and there is a quick reload. To be honest, if we get through this period without seeing some decent snow I may just give up tracking and take up ice fishing during the winter. yea I think you have to go back to late January/early February 2010 to see something like this. Now obvious caveats being that was prime climo and were fighting mid March climo with this one. Also we have the benefit of knowing the outcome with that pattern this one is undecided. But even thinking back to 2010 it wasnt like from late Janaury heading into that epic pattern it ever looked better then this. At the time the late January storm looked south then yes Feb 5 was on the radar but the little tease storm Feb 2 wasnt picked up until the last minute and the Feb 9 thing wasnt even hinted at until late. I honestly don't think ive ever seen a more loaded pattern from this range (start of the threats 5 days out). Of course that does not mean the results are going to be as good or better then those memorable patterns. I highly doubt it, in the end mid march climo is probably going to take its pound of flesh and one or more of these events will end up a little less then they would have been in mid winter. But honestly right now if you asked me if we would see at least "some snow" I would put those odds pretty high. And if you asked the odds of at least one areawide 3-6" or better event I would say those are fairly decent too which is saying a lot for this late in the year. I wouldnt even put the odds of more then one hit that low given the pattern. But I will say I am nervously looking for signs this isn't for real given the time of year and the utter craptastic year we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: To be honest, if we get through this period without seeing some decent snow I may just give up tracking and take up ice fishing during the winter. You'll have to head to maybe harrisburg but most likely binghamton for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Save this. Weeniest gefs run in a long time. Daaaaaaaaayuuuuum. Beautiful! Now please let the Euro continue from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And Wes is now driving the 1974 Dodge Monaco 440 I saw a bunch of calssic cars yesterday and one was a 440 dodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I saw a bunch of calssic cars yesterday and one was a 440 dodge. I have a huge soft spot of classic muscle cars. They wouldn't drive well in the foot of snow we're about to get. That's probably the only downside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: just looked it supresses the Sunday storm then brings up a system a day later and drops 6-10. Some other GEFS members do that. There are so many threats scattered within the mean its hard to keep track. By far the highest probs are with the day 5/6 storm and the day 9-12 period. But there are like 5 distinct waves/threats within the 16 day period and the number of hits is crazy. Most of the runs manage multiple hits from some combo of those waves. Basically holds the pattern long enough and get a wave train parade west to east under the block and.... I am trying hard to remain skeptical but honestly this is a dream pattern setting up. And its not just one threat, we are talking several options to score here and each one is pretty good in some way. And the pattern sets up within the next few days, were not talking about day 10 here. This is going to be utterly cruel if this pattern turns out to be a mirage. Yes, there are several waves in there that could do something for us. Amazing pattern given what we're coming out of and the fact that it's March. But it would be incredible to see this at any time during the winter. Like you, I'm skeptical and cautiously optimistic here. This looks like the best shot of the season and it's not out there in la-la land. It would be especially cruel if nothing comes of it for sure (which is certainly a distinct possibility!). I'm hoping that the depiction of so many waves doesn't end up resulting in one or two more "consolidated" ones that end up either too strong and pulling to our north or a southern slider like what happened in January. Hasn't that happened before, several threat possibilities appear in the ensembles but it ends up really being different solutions of the same (larger) wave that doesn't quite work for us? I haven't seen the details of this, maybe it's a different kind of set-up with clearly distinct waves and not just timing differences. 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Save this. Weeniest gefs run in a long time. That is remarkable! Must be the best since the week of the blizzard last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Deets on Friday wave on euro? 96hr map looks quite good based on low placement and 850 temps at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Friday looks interesting on Euro from this map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017030612&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Euro has to be a little snow for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro has to be a little snow for Friday. Can't see accumulations yet, but less than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro has to be a little snow for Friday. Northern tier event of a couple inches. Temps notsogood south of 70 and precip is lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro has to be a little snow for Friday. It has it... 1-3 maybe for areas just N of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Northern tier event of a couple inches. Temps notsogood south of 70 and precip is lighter. That's fine in my book. We don't want that screwing things up for Sunday by getting too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Friday is a tad too warm for most of us. NW burbs might be able to squeeze something out in the AM, during the day temps rise to the low to mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Temps Saturday AM, mid to upper teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Gorilla High coming on south from Canada on Friday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017030612&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Risky comparison but euro seems less suppressed with its flow by Friday than yesterday's 12z run. Only thing I have to compare with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't see such an extended period of potential in quite awhile. Maybe 09/10? What I like seeing, and it can be seen with 12z gfs in regards to the day 9 storm which tracks to our west, is that even though the pattern relaxes it is is very brief and there is a quick reload. To be honest, if we get through this period without seeing some decent snow I may just give up tracking and take up fishing during the winter. fixed.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Snow arrives in DC metro between 3z and 6z, temps 28-31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 12z Sunday, 2-4" has fallen, temps low 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Shift south overall on the euro but probably nothing to worry about. Definitely not sheared and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Congrats DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Suppressed, but still a nice hit. 4-8" for DC/Southern Burbs, 2-4" for Baltimore...Central VA gets nailed. Probably right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 impressive run for central Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'm good with this run..was scared it was going to be UK like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: Suppressed, but still a nice hit. 4-8" for DC/Southern Burbs, 2-4" for Baltimore...Central VA gets nailed. Probably right where we want it Half full is having wiggle room. Half empty is a continuing trend for a southern solution. Personally, I think it's a great run to add to the mix so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.