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March medium/long range disco


psuhoffman

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Eh. As others have said before, a suppressed solution can happen. The "it cant because its March" theory doesnt hold much water. Im now known as the Binghamton guy so theres that.

I think it holds plenty of water. 

If it didn't we'd have arctic air masses and cold fronts all the way to Miami in the summertime.  Saying it can't is an absolute that I don't think anybody has said.  Probably not.  Yeah, I'll stand behind that.  Does it mean that it won't? No.

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18 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKIE at 96 has a 1013 SLP in C VA... which is the Friday storm, if there is one.

144 h5 pattern looks good... I think?

It looks to me like the UKIE suppresses the Sunday storm.

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod2=gfs&run2=12&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&lang=en&map=na&stn=PNM&run=12&mod=ukmet&hh=144&comp=2&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&date_type=dateo

GFS

ziQKIWc.png

UKMET

N4mbD1z.png

CMC

1rOC4Cd.png

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it holds plenty of water. 

If it didn't we'd have arctic air masses and cold fronts all the way to Miami in the summertime.  Saying it can't is an absolute that I don't think anybody has said.  Probably not.  Yeah, I'll stand behind that.  Does it mean that it won't? No.

I get it...its just tough to call a model wrong before something happens. But yeah, we know the Canadian can be pretty inaccruate but Im sure its had some scores too....the Euro was suppressed too yesterday wasnt it?

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I get it...its just tough to call a model wrong before something happens. But yeah, we know the Canadian can be pretty inaccruate but Im sure its had some scores too....the Euro was suppressed too yesterday wasnt it?

I'm sure it could be right.  It's a long way out.  But it seems to me that a bias of the models is to over do cold air push and depth of low heights to our north and east.  The euro being the least biased in that regard.

Right now, I'm sure nothing is out of the realm, but you can't hate where we sit right now.  Put another way, if you were on the southern edge of potential snowfall, how comfortable would you feel?

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Just now, stormtracker said:

A little worrying that the UK is suppressed.  Normally, it foreshadows the Euro

Not just suppressed but completely squashes and shears out the vort, that would be the risk to me, if the system is healthy and at all amplified it will get here, there is some truth to the March thing, but the problem is if the system is sheared out and weak or weakening then yes it can get bullied south by the flow and either stay south as a weak event or get completely washed out to nothing. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

A little worrying that the UK is suppressed.  Normally, it foreshadows the Euro

Hopefully this is just a replay of everyone's favorite script -

GFS finds, no Euro. Euro finds, GFS drops. Third act, GFS caves, storm.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not just suppressed but completely squashes and shears out the vort, that would be the risk to me, if the system is healthy and at all amplified it will get here, there is some truth to the March thing, but the problem is if the system is sheared out and weak or weakening then yes it can get bullied south by the flow and either stay south as a weak event or get completely washed out to nothing. 

This has been a problem all winter so it can't be totally discounted.

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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A zonal flow is expected for Thursday through Friday. A weak
area of low pressure will likely pass through the area Thursday
night into Friday...bringing the chance for showers. There may
even be enough cold air for snow showers to mix in across the
northern Maryland...but surface temps should remain above
freezing. Exact timing of this system remains uncertain due to
the fact that it is a zonal flow and it is still a few days
away.

A westerly downsloping flow should allow for temps to be above
climo Thursday with max temps ranging from the lower 50s across
northern Maryland to the mid and upper 60s in central Virginia.

A cold front will drop to the south Friday as the low departs
the area. The timing of the low will affect the exact position
of the front. Latest guidance does have the front farther south
which would bring noticeably chillier conditions over the area.
Did tweak temps down from previous forecasts...but not quite as
cold as some of the guidance is suggesting. Certainty in
temperature forecast is low.

Canadian high pressure will build toward the area Friday
night...bringing unseasonably chilly conditions. A stronger area
of low pressure will develop in the Plains Saturday before
tracking nearby or to our south Saturday night into Sunday.
Latest guidance shows upper-level low pressure over the Hudson
Bay with a strong blocking high over Greenland. This should
allow for Canadian high pressure to remain to our north. If this
falls into place...then the system will likely track farther
south and there would be enough cold air for snow. Will have to
continue to monitor this over the next several days.
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So

GFS: 6-12", jackpot slightly south.

Para GFS: 0-12", sharp gradient with jackpot in Central PA

CMC: Completely suppressed and sheared out system.  Flurries.

UKMET: Suppressed and sheared out.

Euro: generally 5-10" areawide.

 

EPS and GEFS: supportive of OP for the most part.

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Needless to say this is the best pattern we've seen all year.  Doesn't mean we get snow but at least there is a good shot at it. Here's our CWG article on the event.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/06/winters-revenge-snow-possible-this-coming-weekend/

An article from Wes! :o

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Needless to say this is the best pattern we've seen all year.  Doesn't mean we get snow but at least there is a good shot at it. Here's our CWG article on the event.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/06/winters-revenge-snow-possible-this-coming-weekend/

Thanks, Wes.  Guess snow is on the table if you see something positive in the pattern.

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