Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I just can't see suppression in March. This ain't January. I think we are sitting pretty right now. Best in a long, long time. Also, somebody with historical connections, this has to be similar to PDII in the setup. Right/wrong? March 1980 was suppressed.... good enough for DC, but it definitely fringed the northern areas. That's the only example I can think of. It probably won't be suppressed for anyone south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 i have weatherbell but i still use Tropical tidbits way more....why? its so easy to use....weatherbell has a terrible UI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 OMG. If Ian is on board, someone check the battery on the bus to see if it even starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Ian said: Yes. Sunday brunch! I'm down..if MR is open. Pretty sure Matt would come up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I just can't see suppression in March. This ain't January. I think we are sitting pretty right now. Best in a long, long time. Also, somebody with historical connections, this has to be similar to PDII in the setup. Right/wrong? It looks a lot like Dec 2009 imho. Amped pointed it out last night. There are differences of course but the vort track/blocking/50/50 look pretty damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree. I remained cautious and quiet when it was sitting in the 2 week window. Tried my best not to let recency fail bias cloud my head. Once the block crossed the 7 day mark I had visions of a big late season event. And I agree. Now that the west based block is actually in the SHORT RANGE, it could very well have longer legs than what models see right now. Good times man. Still mixed in the longer range.. saw 0z EPS was back to warmer late. But I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up dragging out through much of all of the month. Of course with time it becomes hard to get snow even with the pattern. At this point I'd almost bet we lose March to it tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 CMC is suppressed city....hardly any snow for anyone....Not going to Binghamton anymore...going to Jacksonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: March 1980 was suppressed.... good enough for DC, but it definitely fringed the northern areas. That's the only example I can think of. It probably won't be suppressed for anyone south of 40N. Early March 2014 was somewhat disappointing. DC-Balt was forecast 8-12" but the suppression continued to the last minute and it became more of a 3-5" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As with the blizzard last year, I'll see you in the Petco parking lot for measurements at 3 am on Sunday. someone just put this in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm down..if MR is open. Pretty sure Matt would come up Bar Dupont.. nice big windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I just can't see suppression in March. This ain't January. I think we are sitting pretty right now. Best in a long, long time. Also, somebody with historical connections, this has to be similar to PDII in the setup. Right/wrong? Suppression can occur anytime. It just means that it might be a rainstorm and not snow for anyone in that case. We seem to be in a nice spot at the moment. I'm nervous/excited/anxious though due to what we've seen this winter. I just wish it was Thursday, not Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It looks a lot like Dec 2009 imho. Amped pointed it out last night. There are differences of course but the vort track/blocking/50/50 look pretty damn close. Sorry, but are we talking about the Dec 19th 2009 storm? The one that gave us 1-2 feet? Or a different storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: CMC is suppressed city....hardly any snow for anyone....Not going to Binghamton anymore...going to Jacksonville CMC is focused on a big storm after the supressed event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Ji said: CMC is focused on a big storm after the supressed event Looks tropical lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 CMC' 500mb setup at 144 is so radically different from the GFS and Euro I don't think its even worth discussing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Sorry, but are we talking about the Dec 19th 2009 storm? The one that gave us 1-2 feet? Or a different storm? He might be referring to the Dec 5th, 2009 event. It was a good hit in the favored climo spots IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, hosj III said: CMC' 500mb setup at 144 is so radically different from the GFS and Euro I don't think its even worth discussing 0z para is slightly north of other guidance, but much better than its previous ops. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030600&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=488 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 12z UKIE at 96 has a 1013 SLP in C VA... which is the Friday storm, if there is one. 144 h5 pattern looks good... I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 So after only occasionally looking through this thread (more out of some amusement), the last couple of days have me thinking "Say...WHAT?!" I know the potential was there for cold and possibly some snow toward mid-month given the advertised pattern, but I haven't exactly been giving much heed to it. Now, however...! Nature sure has a cruel sense of humor and irony. After one of the warmest DJF periods on record, including the warmest February, we may actually get a significant snow event in March. And a cold one at that! St. Pat's Day storm II (though not exactly on the 17th)?? Lots of people coming back from the dead on this one if it actually pans out...zombie apocalypse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: He might be referring to the Dec 5th, 2009 event. It was a good hit in the favored climo spots IIRC. To me the comments seemed to be linking the overall pattern, so December 2009 as a whole would favor the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Looks like a parade of storms starting with the Friday storm. Ens members will be fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: He might be referring to the Dec 5th, 2009 event. It was a good hit in the favored climo spots IIRC. For the Sunday storm, I'm pretty sure he's referring to the big one. That isn't to say that this one will have as much snow, but I'm sure the setup has similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: So after only occasionally looking through this thread (more out of some amusement), the last couple of days have me thinking "Say...WHAT?!" I know the potential was there for cold and possibly some snow toward mid-month given the advertised pattern, but I haven't exactly been giving much heed to it. Now, however...! Nature sure has a cruel sense of humor and irony. After one of the warmest DJF periods on record, including the warmest February, we may actually get a significant snow event in March. And a cold one at that! St. Pat's Day storm II (though not exactly on the 17th)?? Lots of people coming back from the dead on this one if it actually pans out...zombie apocalypse! Kind of like how the warmest December on record was followed by a HECS the following month. The spring lovers celebrated too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Fozz said: For the Sunday storm, I'm pretty sure he's referring to the big one. That isn't to say that this one will have as much snow, but I'm sure the setup has similarities. I went back an pull reanalysis maps. I would post them if someone would empty out my dumb attachments folder but oh well. Dec 19, 2009 started out with the vort digging to TX and running towards us. Still had a good -nao/50-50 but the track isn't similar unless the one on tap digs way south. The short story is any time you have a vort tracking under with a 50/50 and -nao there is always a chance. It's probably THE classic big snow setup around here (stating obvious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: CMC is suppressed city....hardly any snow for anyone....Not going to Binghamton anymore...going to Jacksonville Awful model. Is it ever right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I went back an pull reanalysis maps. I would post them if someone would empty out my dumb attachments folder but oh well. Dec 19, 2009 started out with the vort digging to TX and running towards us. Still had a good -nao/50-50 but the track isn't similar unless the one on tap digs way south. The short story is any time you have a vort tracking under with a 50/50 and -nao there is always a chance. It's probably THE classic big snow setup around here (stating obvious) Pull them for PDII. I know you can't post them, but I'd like to hear your take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Toddler steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Kind of like how the warmest December on record was followed by a HECS the following month. The spring lovers celebrated too soon. Yeah, maybe a bit like that. But that was one record month early on. Jan-Feb last year were normal to slightly colder with a different pattern, so I don't know how many people were really talking "spring" after December back then. This year has sucked because it has been consistently warmer/much warmer than normal with only a couple or so cold interludes. And every single potential (few as they may have been) broke down or disappeared on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Awful model. Is it ever right? Eh. As others have said before, a suppressed solution can happen. The "it cant because its March" theory doesnt hold much water. Im now known as the Binghamton guy so theres that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pull them for PDII. I know you can't post them, but I'd like to hear your take. Nope, just looked myself. Not even close upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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