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March medium/long range disco


psuhoffman

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm curious as to timing.  Are the Euro and GFS about the same.

The gfs slowed this just a bit.  I'm thinking that if it slowed by about another 6 hours it might even be bigger.

pretty darn close

ecmwf_march 6_2017 _mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24 march 6_2017.jpg

gfs_march 6_2017 _mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24 850mb.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's official. 

It's 106 miles to Chicago, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark and we're wearing sunglasses. Hit it!

 

It's a darn good pattern. I've also long thought our best shot would come at the end of the season. Although this pattern may not quit right away...

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Just now, Ian said:

It's a darn good pattern. I've also long thought our best shot would come at the end of the season. Although this pattern may not quit right away...

Agree. I remained cautious and quiet when it was sitting in the 2 week window. Tried my best not to let recency fail bias cloud my head. Once the block crossed the 7 day mark I had visions of a big late season event. And I agree. Now that the west based block is actually in the SHORT RANGE, it could very well have longer legs than what models see right now. Good times man. 

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Nice run of the GFS for the day 6 deal. You could see it coming @500mb with much sharper features and an overall better look. Best part is that the setup gives some room for amplification which would probably argue for a little quicker intensification of the low then the surface shows at this point. If that is the case you could probably expect a slight adjustment north as well as seeing the low hook more up then coast then its present out to sea solution.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

As with the blizzard last year, I'll see you in the Petco parking lot for measurements at 3 am on Sunday.

Yes. Sunday brunch!

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