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March medium/long range disco


psuhoffman

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Wow. Just caught up on the overnight trends. Beside it actually rippin fluff outside, when do we get to a safe zone and actually say it's gonna snow? Are we past the "it's going to hell" stage yet? I'm only asking...for my kids. :lol:

After all our epic fails I don't ever feel safe until I'm measuring what's otg. 

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Wow. Just caught up on the overnight trends. Beside it actually rippin fluff outside, when do we get to a safe zone and actually say it's gonna snow? Are we past the "it's going to hell" stage yet? I'm only asking...for my kids. :lol:

If it was me and considering how this winter has played out, I would probably wait until there was actual snow in the air. But that's just me.  :D

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16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Amateur.  I chucked him for real.  Alt-mods.  smh.

yeah, sorry, you never gave us alt-mods the power to get rid of people. probably for the best. Waterboy would be banning everyone. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After all our epic fails I don't ever feel safe until I'm measuring what's otg. 

I hear both you and PDIII. At some point though, we all need to buy in. The question is when? The pain would be forever real if we come up short. I get that. I guess each individual weenie will make that decision when the "buy in" time is right.....Sunday morning! ;-)

Anyway--fun week of tracking ahead. Looking forward to our sub-forum highs, praying for no lows. Well unless that low is running into a cold high. See what I did there? 

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

I hear both you and PDIII. At some point though, we all need to buy in. The question is when? The pain would be forever real if we come up short. I get that. I guess each individual weenie will make that decision when the "buy in" time is right.....Sunday morning! ;-)

Anyway--fun week of tracking ahead. Looking forward to our sub-forum highs, praying for no lows. Well unless that low is running into a cold high. See what I did there? 

A nice, cheeky way to start my Monday. Much thanks.

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22 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Just out of curiosity what do the temps look like sat night in to sunday... ?  I was trying to get the cobb table but it looks like it not out yet... maybe mappy can find it... anyways... it looks to be a pretty cold storm.

For IAD, temps fall below freezing by 00Z Sun.  Temp of 28 when precip begins.  Bottoms out at 27.  High of 32 on Sunday.  This is the 06Z GFS

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Know many on here don't have access to the EPS snowfall maps, so here is the breakdown.

First possible event, which has fallen under the radar for the most part, is some weak energy that slides underneath us roughly day 5.  12Z had a broad swath, encompassing most of MD, of trace amounts of snow. 00Z has brought this feature into better focus and has pulled them northward into central MD. 1/2 line came much farther south and is a little bit north of the PA line. At this point those around the PA line would probably have the best shot at seeing anything.

Second event, day 6/7, has improved somewhat. Where we saw the DC/Balt corridor and surrounding regions in the 2 inch range, with 2 1/2 around the Pa line, we now see the whole region within the 2 1/2 inch zone. Looking at individual members we see a 50/50 split between those that show 2 inches or more for most/all of the dc/balt region vs those that show less then 2 to nothing. There has been a noticeable uptick on the moderate 6+ inch (12 members) that impact at least portions of the region as well as an uptick within that group of the somewhat big hitters 10+ inches (5) . 

Third event, roughly day 9, somewhat hard to nail down because it gets muddied by the previous event but it looks that we see an 1 to 1 1/2 increase in the snowfall mean through that period. Which is comparable to the increase that we saw with the 12Z run.

Overall the snowfall mean for the entire 15 day period has up ticked slightly to the north, going from 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 (south to north) to 3 1/2 to 5.

Thanks for the this.

Really hoping we all get some love from above.  Lord knows were due.

Loving the look at 500 on the maps.  Better late then never.  If this verifies it would be a crazy end to a horrid winter.

Looking forward to this week.

Nut

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Just a few thoughts looking at the 0z EPS. Addressing some of the posts wrt suppression- Looking at h5, the location of the block is pretty far south(Baffin Bay/Island) for Saturday,  which is a generally a pretty sweet location for the MA. The vortex underneath it, right about the time our storm is getting underway, is at about its most southern point. So the risk is there, and this is reflected among the individual members as 10 or so have a suppressed storm. I think our general area is in a pretty good spot right now, but these gradient patterns are oh so tricky. A small change in the block or PV position(or timing) and we could end up a bit too far south or north.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

After all our epic fails I don't ever feel safe until I'm measuring what's otg. 

This is smart.  Its hard not to get jacked up looking at the overnights....but at 5 days and knowing the normal ebbs and flows of storm evolution, I'd just tell them possibly maybe.  

Nut

 

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2 hours ago, WXEnthusiast said:


So is one of the rules not posting where you don't live?

Its not an written rule, but its a respect thing.  People that come from more snowy regions coming into areas that typically struggle to get into good snows is just not good form around here.  

Trust me pal....I'm a "northerner", but like stated, if you dont come here to add value (and a little fun) to the discussions....your gonna be taking a long ride off a short plank.  Great group in here that works extra hard to gin up a snowstorm, because it aint all that easy round these parts.

Just take the warnings/advice and roll w/ it.......

Nut

 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Its not an written rule, but its a respect thing.  People that come from more snowy regions coming into areas that typically struggle to get into good snows is just not good form around here.  

Trust me pal....I'm a "northerner", but like stated, if you dont come here to add value (and a little fun) to the discussions....your gonna be taking a long ride off a short plank.  Great group in here that works extra hard to gin up a snowstorm, because it aint all that easy round these parts.

Just take the warnings/advice and roll w/ it.......

Nut

 

Another piece of advice might be don't post 64 times in your first 36 hours.

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27 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thanks for the this.

Really hoping we all get some love from above.  Lord knows were due.

Loving the look at 500 on the maps.  Better late then never.  If this verifies it would be a crazy end to a horrid winter.

Looking forward to this week.

Nut

Your welcome. Was actually enjoyable looking over them with there being a somewhat realistic chance of them verifying as opposed to the fantasy snow we dealt with all winter.

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