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March medium/long range disco

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said:


So is one of the rules not posting where you don't live?

Since you are new I will explain a little. Quite often we get people from the north that come in and troll this sub forum. They basically do as you just did now. Which is to tell us that a storm we are following will move north screwing our area. No reasoning behind it whatsoever, just a flat statement that we will get screwed. Adds no value whatsoever to the discussion and does nothing but put a damper on any enthusiasm that we may feel to our chances. Now if you feel such need to tell us this is going north then explain why and you better damn well have sound reasoning behind it otherwise you will be called out by one of our many very knowledgeable posters. And that won't end well at all either.

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WXEnthusiast

WXEnthusiast

Posted
Posted
Since you are new I will explain a little. Quite often we get people from the north that come in and troll this sub forum. They basically do as you just did now. Which is to tell us that a storm we are following will move north screwing our area. No reasoning behind it whatsoever, just a flat statement that we will get screwed. Adds no value whatsoever to the discussion and does nothing but put a damper on any enthusiasm that we may feel to our chances. Now if you feel such need to tell us this is going north then explain why and you better damn well have sound reasoning behind it otherwise you will be called out by one of our many very knowledgeable posters. And that won't end well at all either.


Ok I am just a little skeptical because the 6z is old data and lows usually don't get suppressed like that in march so I was saying that we would still all get snow but it might be 30 miles farther north with the precipitation field still reaching you guys giving you plowable snow. Good enough explanation
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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, kurtstack said:


It sure looks good right now - both gfs and euro hitting the DMV with a nice 6-12" with ensemble support for both inside 7 days. Im starting to buy storm #1 but still skeptical on the snow on snow storm train.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It is looking good for day 6/7. And irregardless of the 00z EPS degrading somewhat after this storm going into the longer term (at least in my mind) I still am optimistic there as well. I think the setup argues somewhat from having everything break down as quickly as it suggests.

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eurojosh

eurojosh

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said:


Ok I am just a little skeptical because the 6z is old data and lows usually don't get suppressed like that in march so I was saying that we would still all get snow but it might be 30 miles farther north with the precipitation field still reaching you guys giving you plowable snow. Good enough explanation

6z is not "old data" - if it was, it would be identical to the 00z, and be pointless. 

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PaEasternWX

PaEasternWX

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said:

I don't want to start a fight it's a re - run of the 00z new data is collected every 12 hours

Quote


I'm not sure where this widespread misconception came from, but it's just not true that 06Z/18Z runs do not include any new data. I suspect that the fact that, in general, RAOB's are not launched except for special circumstances (such as in an area where there is a severe weather threat) other than the synoptic times of 12Z and 00Z has led people to believe that somehow the 18Z and 06Z runs contain no data in their initializations. In fact, there are many sources of data that go into the 6Z and 18Z runs, such as the regular ASOS surface obs, buoy data, aircraft obs, satellite soundings/cloud drift winds, other derived satellite data, as well as plenty of others. It's probably true however, that the lack of global coverage of RAOB's does degrade the forecasts in general versus those starting from 12Z and 00Z, but I'm not aware of any statistics off the top of my head that would confirm this. If I find any I will post them.

 

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said:

I don't want to start a fight it's a re - run of the 00z new data is collected every 12 hours

Numerous people have told you already to stop posting if you have no clue what you are talking about. As the poster above said, data comes from satellite assimilation, aircraft, buoys, surface obs and more. You're talking only about RAOBS and that's just one small portion of the data going into the models. You're quickly digging yourself a REALLY deep hole. Let's just say that the past few people who took the path you're taking ended up 5-posted, suspended, or banned from the forum. You have been posting almost zero scientific evidence to back up your claims, you have not linked to reliable sources to prove your claims and you are WAY out of your subforum. 

If you are from the NE why are you posting in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. Do you not read what subfoum you're in. And even after people telling you that you are in the wrong subforum you continue to post here. I'm pretty shocked the mods have not stepped in. Other posters have VERY nicely told you you're barking up the wrong tree. But if you keep digging this hole it's not our fault when you're excluded from a great forum. 

Read more, post less. And when you do post, post something that is knowledgeable. 

EDIT: You have 60+ posts since joining on Saturday. This is not a contest to see who can drive up their post counts the fastest. Take your crap to banter if you want to continue spewing incorrect information.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Posted
59 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said:


Ok I am just a little skeptical because the 6z is old data and lows usually don't get suppressed like that in march so I was saying that we would still all get snow but it might be 30 miles farther north with the precipitation field still reaching you guys giving you plowable snow. Good enough explanation

Ok chief I gave you the rope. Suppression during anytime of the year can be argued against by saying it's more likely to snow north, and yes thats even more true in march so I will give you that nugget of truth. However, suppression can and has happened any time of year. A system can get suppressed by a hostile flow even in summer. It's rare but we don't notice because it just means rain went south and we get a nice day. If suppression wasn't possible here then it would never snow south of PA in march or even early April and it does. It has many times. Even in NC. So dismissing suppression out of hand without any facts that are pertinent to this specific setup is a lazy argument at best. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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Posted
43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It is looking good for day 6/7. And irregardless of the 00z EPS degrading somewhat after this storm going into the longer term (at least in my mind) I still am optimistic there as well. I think the setup argues somewhat from having everything break down as quickly as it suggests.

The EPS always was breaking things down after the march 14/15 threat. The gfs products have liked a third threat around the 18th because they hold the pattern a couple days longer. The good news is the EPS has been doing that after day 10 a lot and lately improves once inside. We will see. But based on the EPS the most likely way Lucy pulls the ball is day 6 gets suppressed then day 9 goes north bad everything breaks down.   That day 9 thing was so close to a monster on last nights euro. If it had consolidated and phases everything sooner we would have been crushed but it had that weird duel low structure hold on too long.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Quick glance over the the 500mb t

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok chief I gave you the rope. Suppression during anytime of the can he argued against by saying it's more likely to snow north, and yes thats even more true in march so I will give you that nugget of truth. However, suppression can and has happened any time of year. A system can get suppressed by a hostile flow even in summer. It's rare but we don't notice because it just means rain went south and we get a nice day. If suppression wasn't possible here then it would never snow south of PA in march or even early April and it does. It has many times. Even in NC. So dismissing suppression out of hand without any facts that are pertinent to this specific setup is a lazy argument at best. 

Thought long and hard on replying with a polite reply to his weenie reasoning and him telling me that it was a good enough explanation. But after reading his back and forth on the off runs of the GFS just being old data I realized it was pretty obvious he pretty much didn't have a clue and I didn't see the point in wasting my time. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The EPS always was breaking things down after the march 14/15 threat. The gfs products have liked a third threat around the 18th because they hold the pattern a couple days longer. The good news is the EPS has been doing that after day 10 a lot and lately improves once inside. We will see. But based on the EPS the most likely way Lucy pulls the ball is day 6 gets suppressed then day 9 goes north bad everything breaks down.   That day 9 thing was so close to a monster on last nights euro. If it had consolidated and phases everything sooner we would have been crushed but it had that weird duel low structure hold on too long.  

I am with you as far as the EPS rushing the breakdown. Think the blocking argues against this happening so rapidly. One other thing is that the EPS, for the most part, has not been moving it forward in time which also probably argues for an extended window. Think we will have a better idea after our day 6 possible event gets resolved somewhat.

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

06Z GFS has HGR at zero Monday morning and MRB at 3 degrees under fresh snow cover.  Record low for that date at MRB is 15.

Just out of curiosity what do the temps look like sat night in to sunday... ?  I was trying to get the cobb table but it looks like it not out yet... maybe mappy can find it... anyways... it looks to be a pretty cold storm.

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Wow. Just caught up on the overnight trends. Beside it actually rippin fluff outside, when do we get to a safe zone and actually say it's gonna snow? Are we past the "it's going to hell" stage yet? I'm only asking...for my kids. :lol:

Tomorrow..

Need three more runs ;)

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