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March medium/long range disco


psuhoffman

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah 6z GFS got it done.

That's a pretty large precip field.  and it is showing up every run. I am beginning to think it is actually gonna snow... we are right around the screw job zone for the models though.

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1 minute ago, WXEnthusiast said:

Yea guys don't get your hopes up I think this is further north but you would still get snow from this.


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Hold on... time out... who are you? Where are you from? And what subforum should you be posting in? seriously?

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Know many on here don't have access to the EPS snowfall maps, so here is the breakdown.

First possible event, which has fallen under the radar for the most part, is some weak energy that slides underneath us roughly day 5.  12Z had a broad swath, encompassing most of MD, of trace amounts of snow. 00Z has brought this feature into better focus and has pulled them northward into central MD. 1/2 line came much farther south and is a little bit north of the PA line. At this point those around the PA line would probably have the best shot at seeing anything.

Second event, day 6/7, has improved somewhat. Where we saw the DC/Balt corridor and surrounding regions in the 2 inch range, with 2 1/2 around the Pa line, we now see the whole region within the 2 1/2 inch zone. Looking at individual members we see a 50/50 split between those that show 2 inches or more for most/all of the dc/balt region vs those that show less then 2 to nothing. There has been a noticeable uptick on the moderate 6+ inch (12 members) that impact at least portions of the region as well as an uptick within that group of the somewhat big hitters 10+ inches (5) . 

Third event, roughly day 9, somewhat hard to nail down because it gets muddied by the previous event but it looks that we see an 1 to 1 1/2 increase in the snowfall mean through that period. Which is comparable to the increase that we saw with the 12Z run.

Overall the snowfall mean for the entire 15 day period has up ticked slightly to the north, going from 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 (south to north) to 3 1/2 to 5.

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So now that we have been bulls-eyed by the Euro and the GFS, when does it all begin to unravel?

I'll take the first shot at this. It was the overnight run of the EPS. Degraded the day 9 event a little and post 10 day really went south in my mind. Just one run though so not an issue yet.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I'll take the first shot at this. It was the overnight run of the EPS. Degraded the day 9 event a little and post 10 day really went south in my mind. Just one run though so not an issue yet.

My focus in on Sunday. Thats our first legit shot, and trends have gone strongly in our favor. So that is what I was referring to specifically. Lets hope it holds. The subforum needs this lol.

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Going north? As depicted now with the pv dropping so far south for the day 6/7 event I am not so sure there is much more leeway for the storm to go north. And considering the trends over the last few days of dropping that pv even farther south I would probably argue that if we had anything to fear it would be seeing this storm trend south as well. 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My focus in on Sunday. Thats our first legit shot, and trends have gone strongly in our favor. So that is what I was referring to specifically. Lets hope it holds. The subforum needs this lol.

I have felt and still feel somewhat optimistic. At least as optimistic as one can be considering how everything has gone into the crapper all winter.

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My focus in on Sunday. Thats our first legit shot, and trends have gone strongly in our favor. So that is what I was referring to specifically. Lets hope it holds. The subforum needs this lol.


It sure looks good right now - both gfs and euro hitting the DMV with a nice 6-12" with ensemble support for both inside 7 days. Im starting to buy storm #1 but still skeptical on the snow on snow storm train.


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