kurtstack Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 we are getting into range now and the models are starting to converge slowly with ensembles improving as well - its gonna be a wild week or two in hereSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Why limit let's go for all 3. I see 3 legit threats. March 12/13, 14/15, 17/18. All low prob at this range. But this pattern looks loaded. Shame it's mid march. What if after all this crap all winter we pulled off 3 hits to end the season. Lol Yeah I was thinking that it would be epic for you guys to get to climo after the futility so far. If there was one pattern to do it in, this could be it. It looks awesome, and it looks like it could have some duration as well. If one storm doesn't pan out, another is in the pipeline (the CMC pretty much proved that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Had to comment on how similar this looks. Just need a little more of a consolidated disturbance over the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Gefs shifted south d6-7. Mean looks similar to 12z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs shifted south d6-7. Mean looks similar to 12z eps. Yea I sense a weenie gefs run coming in. Mean already 3-5" across the area just from the first threat. Could be a colorful map by day 16 if there are any hits with threats 2/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs shifted south d6-7. Mean looks similar to 12z eps. I'm trying really hard to stay skeptical but this pattern looks legit. Any other year I'd be saying we're in great shape right now to score at least something from this 7-10 day window with multiple threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm trying really hard to stay skeptical but this pattern looks legit. Any other year I'd be saying we're in great shape right now to score at least something from this 7-10 day window with multiple threats. Have we even had a legit warning level event inside of 5 days this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Have we even had a legit warning level event inside of 5 days this year? No everything deteriorated by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why limit let's go for all 3. I see 3 legit threats. March 12/13, 14/15, 17/18. All low prob at this range. But this pattern looks loaded. Shame it's mid march. What if after all this crap all winter we pulled off 3 hits to end the season. Lol Go big or go home right? A triple play with two of them being snow-on-snow events might fit the bill...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: No everything deteriorated by that point. I was trying to remember the whiff south. We were out around d7 or so and it never came back north IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was trying to remember the whiff south. We were out around d7 or so and it never came back north IIRC Your right. We haven't had anything close to this much potential this year. The best gefs run since last Jan is incoming right now. Still only at day 12 and crazy totals already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm trying really hard to stay skeptical but this pattern looks legit. Any other year I'd be saying we're in great shape right now to score at least something from this 7-10 day window with multiple threats. OK I want some of that good detailed PSU analysis.........what do you see in this setup that would make it reasonable to trust that the PAC (or whatever else has been under-represented) in the guidance all year isn't going to pop up yet again to destroy all our hopes and dreams? Are you leaning towards "IT REALLY IS different this time".....or maybe you're just being optimistic and in the back of your mind you are still expecting the X-Factor to get picked up by the models and blast us out of the water yet again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Gefs loves day 6 and 12/13. Some crazy hits around day 12. There are some random hits sprinkled throughout but those two in particular this run likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Bringing back memories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Top Totals from Jonas... BTW I live in Morris Plains and had never seen that much snow:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, MountainGeek said: OK I want some of that good detailed PSU analysis.........what do you see in this setup that would make it reasonable to trust that the PAC (or whatever else has been under-represented) in the guidance all year isn't going to pop up yet again to destroy all our hopes and dreams? Are you leaning towards "IT REALLY IS different this time".....or maybe you're just being optimistic and in the back of your mind you are still expecting the X-Factor to get picked up by the models and blast us out of the water yet again? First the nao blocking is legit and in march that is the mother of all drivers. The reason for that is the weaker jet and shorter wavelengths make it harder for the PAC to bully the pattern as far downstream. Things can get logjammed this time of year. Jet buckling is the best way to offset the PAC. But most important is the cold. It's finally there on our side ready when a trough is coming. Several times decent h5 patterns went to waste for lack of any cold. This time we have the cold. So those are 2 reasons to hope this is different. We're also seeing a consensus we haven't all year and it's moving inside the magic day 7 barrier now. The PAC isn't as aweful as it could be. We could do without the aleutian ridge and that already delayed things as we have had some blocking wasted already but this time it looks like it relaxes and retrogrades just enough that combined with perfect Atlantic side sets us up good. The PAC is far from good but this is a time of year a A+ Atlantic side could offset it and take over. I'm cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: First the nao blocking is legit and in march that is the mother of all drivers. The reason for that is the weaker jet and shorter wavelengths make it harder for the PAC to bully the pattern as far downstream. Things can get logjammed this time of year. Jet buckling is the best way to offset the PAC. But most important is the cold. It's finally there on our side ready when a trough is coming. Several times decent h5 patterns went to waste for lack of any cold. This time we have the cold. So those are 2 reasons to hope this is different. We're also seeing a consensus we haven't all year and it's moving inside the magic day 7 barrier now. The PAC isn't as aweful as it could be. We could do without the aleutian ridge and that already delayed things as we have had some blocking wasted already but this time it looks like it relaxes and retrogrades just enough that combined with perfect Atlantic side sets us up good. The PAC is far from good but this is a time of year a A+ Atlantic side could offset it and take over. I'm cautiously optimistic. You're a freaking machine.....truly amazing how quickly you can spit out detailed analysis and insights. I'm in for at least ONE moderate event! If this thing goes half decent, I'm hoping there will be enough to paste everyone in the MA and we can bury this otherwise horrid winter in a pile of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Please post NJ Ensemble Members Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 PSU, I think one of the most interesting things is this literally could first classic west based block with staying power that we've seen since Jan 2011. We've been dealing with progressive flow, WARs, and just plain crappy atlantic setups for years. Yea, we've had some transient stuff. And even some periods of a -AO. But I think many of us have forgotten what a west based block can do and how the storm track behaves during them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: PSU, I think one of the most interesting things is this literally could first classic west based block with staying power that we've seen since Jan 2011. We've been dealing with progressive flow, WARs, and just plain crappy atlantic setups for years. Yea, we've had some transient stuff. And even some periods of a -AO. But I think many of us have forgotten what a west based block can do and how the storm track behaves during them. Your right. Even last January was a weird Kara sea block that worked but it was far from classic. Hopefully we get a reminder in the next 2 weeks just how well these can work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: Please post NJ Ensemble Members Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Good Stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 ECMWF 144 1006mb over SW KY. In other words, south of the GFS and probably a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: ECMWF 144 1006mb over SW KY. In other words, south of the GFS and probably a hit. cold air is deeply entrenched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: ECMWF 144 1006mb over SW KY. In other words, south of the GFS and probably a hit. It's south of gfs but north of 12z euro. Surface data not out but if it's not a hit it's close. Looks good to me. Still too far out for fine details. I'm calling it another win. Very Good day overall. Gnight. Hopefully the EPS is as weenie as the gefs in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Euro is a big hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: Euro is a big hit... You bet it kind of looks like 00z from 2 nights ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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