CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, the mean is a MA special too so DC/Balt is dead center of the various tracks for the members that snow on the region. Couple nice hits in there too. Best d7 run of the EPS in a very long time. I can't even remember the last one that was better. lol Its been a long time. Mean through our entire area is 2+. Roughly half the members have our area as the target, or very close "miss" to the north or south. Pretty darn good signal at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol no It was a suppressed event. Got as far north as Salisbury. Can't blame a guy for tryin...(was just playin but sounded good while I typed it). Liking the dare I say...trends for the next couple weeks. Better late than never?? hoping we can finally get a threat into the mid range. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Day 9/10 looks better on the eps. Should hopefully see a nice uptick on the snow fall means through that period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Classic Baffin Bay/Island block with a perfectly placed 50-50 low on the EPS leading into next weekend's potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS looking pretty good for d7-8. A few misses south and north but the majority of snow producers put us in the game. Snow mean out to day 9 is a huge jump so far. Of the day 10-15 period has any threats also it might end up a weenie run. Bigger threat with the day 7 storm is it gets sheared out that's how we miss more then north or south. We are the bullseye of the snow but several members simply shear out the system. good news is through day 9 some of those members then hit with the day 8-9 thing. Several shots it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Better trough placement on the day 13th'ish possible event. Uptick there as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Better trough placement on the day 13th'ish possible event. Uptick there as well? After the d7-8 storm it just becomes a splattering of different timing but this run is pushing a 9 on the weenyomiter across the board. Woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: After the d7-8 storm it just becomes a splattering of different timing but this run is pushing a 9 on the weenyomiter across the board. Woah I'll take it and end my weekend on a high note before the inevitable crushing blow the models will deliver tomorrow or the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Have to like what we are seeing. GEFS has moved towards the idea of an earlier start to our window. And the Euro has moved towards the GEFS's idea of an extended window through the period. Best of both worlds. Now what could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: After the d7-8 storm it just becomes a splattering of different timing but this run is pushing a 9 on the weenyomiter across the board. Woah Not sure I've ever heard you say Whoa...now I'm interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Snowfall means have improved a good deal through the 15 day period from the 00z EPS run. Roughly an inch and half increase area wide with an expansion southward that now puts the 2 inch line into southern Va. Looking at the individual members also is very encouraging. Many good hits now showing, in a word or two many of the members are becoming very colorful. Edit: Forgot the all important means for the cities. 4 inch mark runs through Balt and is just north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Sunday fun day happy hour! Let's pray for no Monday blues though. Praying for a fun tracking week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Euro would be a KU storm if it if it weren't for the + height anomalies over the south central states. Maybe we can cobble up a decent shortwave anyway. I hope we get a 6+ storm from being kept in suspense so long in a winter I'd like to flush down the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 The way the trends are going we might not want to sleep on the front runner day 5 either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 GFS continues to trend toward a further push of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS continues to trend toward a further push of the cold air. Baby steps. Small incremental changes, in contrast the the euro big leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 The 18z op run shows a few near misses especially one that misses the MA to the south and east. Will be a fun week to track these possibilities, at last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 18z gefs made a notable shift south with the d7 event compared to 12z. Not as sweet as the eps but a shift nonetheless. Things seem to be trending in our favor at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs made a notable shift south with the d7 event compared to 12z. Not as sweet as the eps but a shift nonetheless. Things seem to be trending in our favor at the right time. What are the max snowfall numbers down south on the operational Euro? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What are the max snowfall numbers down south on the operational Euro? Thanks. 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 18z gefs is a weenie run like the 12z eps. Is this really gonna happen? I already know what tracker thinks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: 6-12" Thanks. I ended up finding it over in the SE thread. A little less impressive than I imagined, but everything looks paltry compared to 36-39". Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs is a weenie run like the 12z eps. Is this really gonna happen? I already know what tracker thinks. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 i would wait til everything is inside 3-5 days before asking the question of whether this is really gonna happen. We need to get NAM'd at least once before we can start considering it might be real lol.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'd like to see that mean at 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd like to see that mean at 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Thank you. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd like to see that mean at 168 hours Based on what I saw on the 12z eps and 18z gefs, the d7 deal is only the beginning. A lot of storminess showing up through the ends of the runs. This is by far the longest window we've seen all year on the ensembles. Once that gradient pattern is in place it looks repetitive. Too far out to feel any confidence in accuracy but for now the ens have a legit threat @ d7 and more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Based on what I saw on the 12z eps and 18z gefs, the d7 deal is only the beginning. A lot of storminess showing up through the ends of the runs. This is by far the longest window we've seen all year on the ensembles. Once that gradient pattern is in place it looks repetitive. Too far out to feel any confidence in accuracy but for now the ens have a legit threat @ d7 and more to come. I'll stick with Sunday. That's the one I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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