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March medium/long range disco


psuhoffman

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21 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

We have seen this play out before....the models in the 6-9 day period make us mildly interested and then in the 3-4 day period it trends north. Ill call it now, congrats Harrisburg to Binghamton

I'm not sure this year you can say that. Harrisburg has had next to nothing this year. The very few times we got into the day 7 range with a real threat one trended south and 2 completely suppressed/sheared out and I can think of one that went north. This year just getting anything even close to us has been the problem. It's been an "interior" winter as in interior Quebec lol 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm going with a blend of the gfs and euro with a side order of the cmc. 

It's getting harder to play bad cop with the trends and look of the guidance. Dare I say our chances of seeing at least some snow in march are becoming decent?

peopld need to keep expectations in check though and I think they are. 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a mighty big shift in one op run. Shows the volatility and the potential. I would love for the next weekend deal to become a legit threat. We desperately need something inside of 7 days. 

Those differences between models and between runs all revolve around whether that hammer of cold moves south.  GFS not enough, Euro too much.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It's getting harder to play bad cop with the trends and look of the guidance. Dare I say our chances of seeing at least some snow in march are becoming decent?

peopld need to keep expectations in check though and I think they are. 

I want the 38" the Euro gave me yesterday.  Normally I would curse snow that big but in March it would be something to behold.

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Those differences between models and between runs all revolve around whether that hammer of cold moves south.  GFS not enough, Euro too much.

Given its March, and the Pacific is crapola, I am thrilled to see an op run drive the cold that far south. The blocking on the NA side looks legit. Lets hope so, because the Bering Strait monster certainly is.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's getting harder to play bad cop with the trends and look of the guidance. Dare I say our chances of seeing at least some snow in march are becoming decent?

peopld need to keep expectations in check though and I think they are. 

Becoming more and more likely that there will be a W-E oriented stripe of decent snow somewhere near here next weekend. It's probably not going to cover a lot of latitude and it's basically impossible to know exactly where right now. But being smack dab in between the euro/gfs right now is not a bad place to be. Maybe it's our time to break the losing streak. Maybe not. At least we're "only" 7 days out now. Lol

 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Becoming more and more likely that there will be a W-E oriented stripe of decent snow somewhere near here next weekend. It's probably not going to cover a lot of latitude and it's basically impossible to know exactly where right now. But being smack dab in between the euro/gfs right now is not a bad place to be. Maybe it's our time to break the losing streak. Maybe not. At least we're "only" 7 days out now. Lol

 

Good post.  it seems like All the major models are moving in this direction.  I am excited.

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Becoming more and more likely that there will be a W-E oriented stripe of decent snow somewhere near here next weekend. It's probably not going to cover a lot of latitude and it's basically impossible to know exactly where right now. But being smack dab in between the euro/gfs right now is not a bad place to be. Maybe it's our time to break the losing streak. Maybe not. At least we're "only" 7 days out now. Lol

 

Yea we have as much chance as anyone with the day 7 gradient system. After that I envision several systems over the day 10-16 period any of which could stay under us and yes we're fighting climo more but if it's going to snow mid march getting the cold on our side with blocking is how to do it. I see multiple chances here. All low probability but decent when calculating odd one clips us. 

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I am not saying we can't miss south. We could. But until we're inside 100 hours and unless other guidance goes that way I am not worried about that yet. No more then it going north. Still way too far out to be overly concerned with one op run. Especially when the other major tool used it the opposite way and historically a compromise is best when they diverge. Let's see what the EPS does in an hour. It's march 5 and we're talking about legit threats. I'm scoring today as a win so far. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Let's bet.  This is the year it would happen.  If I'm in South VA, I'm pretty happy right now.  Normally, I'd be dreading the trend north, but we thought that about the last storm.

I forget the year, but there was a 1-2 foot snowstorm in NC in mid March some years back. It does happen.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I forget the year, but there was a 1-2 foot snowstorm in NC in mid March some years back. It does happen.

Besides a storm can get suppressed south by the flow even if it's too late to get snow down there due to boundary level temps. They would just get rain. But even in the summer things can get suppressed. That argument is silly. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Besides a storm can get suppressed south by the flow even if it's too late to get snow down there due to boundary level temps. They would just get rain. But even in the summer things can get suppressed. That argument is silly. 

True. I highly doubt this ends up being suppressed unless it completely dampens and gets crushed to nothing. If there is to be a wintery storm in a gradient pattern based on the advertised large scale pattern, and factoring in climo, I think our general region and especially points north are favored.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS looking pretty good for d7-8. A few misses south and north but the majority of snow producers put us in the game. 

Yup was just going to post this. Some spread as expected but overall the EPS looks pretty good for our region next Sunday. 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup was just going to post this. Some spread as expected but overall the EPS looks pretty good for our region next Sunday. 

Yea, the mean is a MA special too so DC/Balt is dead center of the various tracks for the members that snow on the region. Couple nice hits in there too. Best d7 run of the EPS in a very long time. I can't even remember the last one that was better. lol

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