WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 What does the euro look like on Monday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the euro look like on Monday morning? Boring with no QPF around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: The thing about March (especially near the cities) is the climo fight can ruin things that are otherwise a pretty good chance. The opposite of January and early Feb when a so-so deal can produce something. Of course this year that didn't happen but you guys know what I'm talking about. Diligent long range tracking this late in the season is waste of time beyond just looking at the means and hoping as we get into med-short range that something either shows up or holds together. The same thoughts I had a few days ago are still the same. Looks like a good pattern to build some impressive late season cold in Canada and eventually the US. This "should" make it's way east. The cold Canada pattern seems pretty stable so my guess is a fairly decent period in March will feature cold and stormy weather in the CONUS. Not much else to discuss. Anything specific is 1-2 weeks away. good attitude, there is potential but we're still a week away from any clarity so enjoy the nice weather and we will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 Everything continued the trend colder in the long range today. Still too far out to feel any confidence but the trend is undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 9 hours ago, pasnownut said: "frankly, i think this hobby is somewhat of a waste of time if all you're doing is regurgitating model output each run. that's why i don't even bother with that. for me, " If I misread, then my bad. But this didnt sound "in defense of" to me. Carry on. Nut My point was that if all you're doing is just staring at numbers and not knowing where they come from then you're better off letting a forecaster make the call otherwise you're just going to hug each model run which I absolutely 100% think is a waste of ones time. But if you're actually in this to learn about patterns and where the numbers come from then tracking storms can be beneficial even if everything seems 10 days away. I'm sure plenty can be learned about patterns even if it doesn't snow. I can't be any clearer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 I'm not really back into full tracking yet. Just a quick look at each ensemble run. But the trend the last few days is interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 If this was late March yes we're done see you next fall but in late February hunting season hasn't ended yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 06 UT GFS shows a parade of clippers every two to three days beginning on the 5th, while the first is likely to be well to our north the next several look to pass over us or to our south. 00 UT NAEFS shows a weak signal for precipitation and normal to below normal temperatures beginning on the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 EPS looks good as well. Been trending colder and sooner. Days 11-15 look cold. Faint signals for winter storms showing up beyond day 12 on some of the members too. Be nice to see that get stronger in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 59 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Even at day 12-13 gefs starts to look real nice. 0z 0z EPS looks nearly identical for that time. Good to see the GEFS and EPS in lockstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Here's the latest 6z 850's at day 15 . Checkout the PURPLE haze centered over us. Isnt our average high like 53 on march 7 @ DCA. So take away 10 degrees and we are still 10 degrees to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: If this was late March yes we're done see you next fall but in late February hunting season hasn't ended yet Look, a zombie jonesin' for some snow action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 I still think Monday might at least provide some front end flakes (just looking at gfs 850/precip plots). Bad timing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Isnt our average high like 53 on march 7 @ DCA. So take away 10 degrees and we are still 10 degrees to warm That map is in Celsius, not Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Isnt our average high like 53 on march 7 @ DCA. So take away 10 degrees and we are still 10 degrees to warm Note, however, that area of bn temps represents the center of High Pressure getting ready to pass over us or to our south. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017022306&fh=360&xpos=61&ypos=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That map is in Celsius, not Fahrenheit. And it's at night. It would be cold enough at the surface and 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: Isnt our average high like 53 on march 7 @ DCA. So take away 10 degrees and we are still 10 degrees to warm Those are 850T anomalies. But yeah temps are always a concern in March. Get a storm with a favorable track with that sort of look, and surface temps are less likely to be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said: Isnt our average high like 53 on march 7 @ DCA. So take away 10 degrees and we are still 10 degrees to warm Your looking at it wrong. First that's Celsius. Second it's an ensemble mean which smooths out details. Your going to have some warmer runs mixed in. Or days where it's sunny vs precipitating. A sunny day in mid march isn't going to be that cold. Plus your quoting the high. It doesn't have to be below 32 all the time just when it's precipitating. If it worked the way you imply it would never snow in march. Frankly it would almost never snow period since the average high in DC is in the mid 40s or higher most of the winter except a few weeks. Even then it's never below 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS looks good as well. Been trending colder and sooner. Days 11-15 look cold. Faint signals for winter storms showing up beyond day 12 on some of the members too. Be nice to see that get stronger in the next few days. Ok let's play bad v good again. bad: the snow signal is pretty bad on the gefs and EPS. And usually I ignore that at range but it's been a feature all year and in the end was correct. While cold on the mean when you look at the details the individual runs and warm wet and cold dry. They differ on timing at that range but the majority cut something west then drive a cold dry high down behind it. Good: just because it's been crap all winter doesn't mean the next pattern will be. This is a very different look then we have had so far. Like I said a week ago we're heading into a 4th distinct longwave pattern. But this one, unlike the last 3, has significant large scale differences in some of the issues we have faced. Mainly it looks like North America will have ample cold available and the southeast ridge will be suppressed. Those two haven't lined up this year yet. Furthermore at range smaller vorts within the pattern will be missed and in march those can be a big deal. Neutral: I would like to see a bit more southern energy but in march a vort in the northern stream could get it done but I want to see some hits start showing up in the guidance soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Ok let's play bad v good again. bad: the snow signal is pretty bad on the gefs and EPS. And usually I ignore that at range but it's been a feature all year and in the end was correct. While cold on the mean when you look at the details the individual runs and warm wet and cold dry. They differ on timing at that range but the majority cut something west then drive a cold dry high down behind it. Good: just because it's been crap all winter doesn't mean the next pattern will be. This is a very different look then we have had so far. Like I said a week ago we're heading into a 4th distinct longwave pattern. But this one, unlike the last 3, has significant large scale differences in some of the issues we have faced. Mainly it looks like North America will have ample cold available and the southeast ridge will be suppressed. Those two haven't lined up this year yet. Furthermore at range smaller vorts within the pattern will be missed and in march those can be a big deal. Neutral: I would like to see a bit more southern energy but in march a vort in the northern stream could get it done but I want to see some hits start showing up in the guidance soon. Good post. Another element I am keeping an eye on is the ridging over GL and how stable that feature is (or isnt). We have seen that general look in the means quite often this winter but at verification time, its not a real "block". Odds have been against it due to the QBO, etc. It seems like it could be more than transient this time. Even looking at individual runs of the GFS op the higher heights being advertised up there have looked rather persistent for the first week to 10 days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Just some food for thought since it seems to be lining up with the future thoughts in here. Please take with a grain of salt as his track record this year stinks to put it mildly. But anyway FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 40 minutes ago, Scraff said: Just some food for thought since it seems to be lining up with the future thoughts in here. Please take with a grain of salt as his track record this year stinks to put it mildly. But anyway FWIW: At this point, he has to find something to hang his hat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At this point, he has to find something to hang his hat on. If you flip this chart upside down the SAI performed perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 12 UT GFS: Clipper parade could begin as early as next Friday with light wintry mix output by the model on both Friday morning and Saturday evening; however, the lows pass to our north on both occasions, which is never a good sign, especially with a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: 12 UT GFS: Clipper parade could begin as early as next Friday with light wintry mix output by the model on both Friday morning and Saturday evening; however, the lows pass to our north on both occasions, which is never a good sign, especially with a clipper. with that just starting a potential cool period its not unexpected in my view...but there are more after that which are south of us...uber LR so not worth even discussing but a theme that seems to be emerging is a cool period starting next Friday. I suppose that's it and could vanish. But I will be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If you flip this chart upside down the SAI performed perfectly. You never fails to get me to LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Don't like the long range Euro. The PNA is not amped up enough and no big highs in southern Canada. Maybe an okay pattern for NE, but here it's just a cool shot, or maybe just a return to normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Differences between EPS and GEFS: The EPS has some brief weak blocking in the atlantic before heights start building again. PNA and AO are also not great on EPS. GEFS has stronger blocking and holds it through the run though it weakens a bit toward the end. AO stays negative too. GEFS also wants to turn PNA positive. That would be a window, with cold air in place, though nothing much really pops. A couple of storms pop on EPS, but they're the "trailing low amps up" variety from what I can tell. Based on EPS, I'd say we have a good window for snow starting around the December 20th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, paulythegun said: Differences between EPS and GEFS: The EPS has some brief weak blocking in the atlantic before heights start building again. PNA and AO are also not great on EPS. GEFS has stronger blocking and holds it through the run though it weakens a bit toward the end. AO stays negative too. GEFS also wants to turn PNA positive. That would be a window, with cold air in place, though nothing much really pops. A couple of storms pop on EPS, but they're the "trailing low amps up" variety from what I can tell. Based on EPS, I'd say we have a good window for snow starting around the December 20th period. Without getting into too much detail, which is useless, the NA blocking is there, and not what I would call brief (or particularly weak) on the EPS, from day 7 forward. Looks like it does weaken around day 15. Both have a generally building +PNA which fades late in the run, and neither have an EPO ridge. Mostly lower heights over AK. Upshot is if there is an opportunity for a late winter weather event, it will likely occur in the day 10-15 window, maybe a bit beyond, which is pretty brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Like the GEFS. Continues the trough east idea. Arguably best look in the last three months...shame it's not January..but that's life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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