CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Just now, mattie g said: I've got a beer to brew, so I'm down with that. Hope its a coffee stout Speaking of which, I am sipping on a Sunday Morning Stout. Oh so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS improved for the d9 deal. Go figure. Control run is a decent event too. People get to caught up in op runs at long range when they should be paying attention to the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS improved for the d9 deal. Go figure. Control run is a decent event too. There are a few nice hits in the mix. The snow mean is slightly better for that period. This is why we have the ensembles right? Even though the last 2 op runs have been quite disparate, the mean looks generally the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS improved for the d8-9 deal. Go figure. Control run is a decent event too. So today your good cop and I'm bad? Making sure we have this covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: People get to caught up in op runs at long range when they should be paying attention to the ensemble. I don't think they are taking them seriously it was just pretty to look at and naturally a small letdown when the next run sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think they are taking them seriously it was just pretty to look at and naturally a small letdown when the next run sucks. No one other than snow88 took the 0z 30" bomb seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 From a quick glance EPS looks about the same wrt the day 8-10 period but improved a lot Day 10-15. Overall a bump is snow due to some hits late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: From a quick glance EPS looks about the same wrt the day 8-10 period but improved a lot Day 10-15. Overall a bump is snow due to some hits late Was just looking at that. The focus has shifted more to the later threat, which tbh I am not a fan of. It is what it is though and we will see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Hopefully 00z European shows it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Was just looking at that. The focus has shifted more to the later threat, which tbh I am not a fan of. It is what it is though and we will see how it plays out. I'm not a fan of delaying either especially in march but the initial trough attempt Day 8-10 is fighting a pretty hostile PAC. The snow runs in that period do it with a crazy blocking over Baffin solution. If the blocking holds the next attempt as the pacific trough retrogrades could have more luck digging in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not a fan of delaying either especially in march but the initial trough attempt Day 8-10 is fighting a pretty hostile PAC. The snow runs in that period do it with a crazy blocking over Baffin solution. If the blocking holds the next attempt as the pacific trough retrogrades could have more luck digging in the east. Yeah getting the block in that position is ideal but probably long odds. The other possibility is a compromise, with a weaker western block displaced a bit further north. Then the western trough underneath would not be as hostile and could perhaps allow more ridging in the western US. Problem is the Pacific ridge/trough combo has been a persistent thorn and that ridge near the Aleutians on the 12z run was an absolute beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 No sign of a happy hour on the 18z GFS through hr 132. Pretty much identical to 12z. If anything the NA ridging is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think they are taking them seriously it was just pretty to look at and naturally a small letdown when the next run sucks. 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: No one other than snow88 took the 0z 30" bomb seriously. Was trying to follow piecemeal over the phone while walking through the exhibit so it was hard to gauge things. Just had the feeling people were baling over the op runs. Considering the long odds we still face maybe that wouldn't be such a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 I kinda lose interest when I see a monstrous Aleutian ridge. Soo difficult to overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Trends on the GFS are generally not good wrt the strength/position of the AK ridge, and the ridging in the NA. Pacific wrecking ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: No one other than snow88 took the 0z 30" bomb seriously. Lies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I kinda lose interest when I see a monstrous Aleutian ridge. Soo difficult to overcome that. IMO it is possible to overcome with good ridging over-top that forces the pv southward. If that pv stays north we are basically sol. Or if that pv does get forced southward but dumped into the west we are sol. So basically we are probably sol unless that pv is forced southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: IMO it is possible to overcome with good ridging over-top that forces the pv southward. If that pv stays north we are basically sol. Or if that pv does get forced southward but dumped into the west we are sol. So basically we are probably sol unless that pv is forced southeastward. Yes its possible. As various runs of the Euro have shown. But- in those cases the AK block was also further north and somewhat weaker, with a less pronounced trough under it. If we see a gigantic magenta blob over the Aleutians, and a smaller red blob over/just east of GL, thats not going to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Lies Drama queen much? Why are you even posting in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 For those that haven't looked at the 18z gfs then don't even bother. It is basically a flat out ugly run. Here's hoping the GEFS can turn the tide somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: For those that haven't looked at the 18z gfs then don't even bother. It is basically a flat out ugly run. Here's hoping the GEFS can turn the tide somewhat. Yup a disaster. My post above comparing it(relatively early in the run) to the Sat 0z GFS, illustrates what I believe is a major issue with ultimately getting a trough into the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Drama queen much? Why are you even posting in this thread? Because I can post anywhere I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: So today your good cop and I'm bad? Making sure we have this covered. You got it. 18z gefs looks decent for the d6-7, d9-10, and another chance beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You got it. 18z gefs looks decent for the d6-7, d9-10, and another chance beyond that. Just setting us up so it will hurt more when we fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Just setting us up so it will hurt more when we fail. I fully expect every single event to pass nw and be on the outside looking in. Which is fine because I've been practicing this exact outcome for the last 100 days with the exception of a couple events passing south and east. All this training has left me in good shape physically and mentally. I'm ready. Bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Because I can post anywhere I want. Oh yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh yeah? Their testing you this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I fully expect every single event to pass nw and be on the outside looking in. Which is fine because I've been practicing this exact outcome for the last 100 days with the exception of a couple events passing south and east. All this training has left me in good shape physically and mentally. I'm ready. Bring it I'm still at work, probably will be till 11 so just sneaking peeks here and there when I can. Man 18z gefs was a marked improvement. Mean was only a slight bump but it lost the few crazy outliers and the snow is more evenly spread out over lots of hits. Several day 7-10 then another jump 12-16. Pretty impressive run for march. But again it's just trolling us. The models are like jb this year. Stringing us along like hooked junkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm still at work, probably will be till 11 so just sneaking peeks here and there when I can. Man 18z gefs was a marked improvement. Mean was only a slight bump but it lost the few crazy outliers and the snow is more evenly spread out over lots of hits. Several day 7-10 then another jump 12-16. Pretty impressive run for march. But again it's just trolling us. The models are like jb this year. Stringing us along like hooked junkies. There are a couple decent storm signals(not great) but given its March its not bad. It is likely a troll job though, but we should be smart enough by now to not take the bait at this range. The advertised pacific pattern is HORRIBLE. Cannot sugar coat it. So much has to go right to overcome that, and we have had many poor outcomes this winter as a reminder. That being said, this is an especially complex set up with the potential for a strong NA block in addition to the big omega block out west, and their interaction with the TPV. As weather enthusiasts, we never just give up. Its a very interesting pattern with potential and even though the odds of failure for our region is again high, we track on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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