Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

March medium/long range disco


psuhoffman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

.any details on the gefs yet? 

Still no give. It's dumping things into the west still. One problem is the gfs products are further northeast with the blocking. Up over Greenland and east vs the euro that has that centered over Baffin Island. That extreme location of the block then buckles everything under it and retrogrades the pacific trough enough to allow pna ridging which lets something dig into the east. Domino effect. If that blocking shifts north at all on the euro/U.K./ggem camp we end up with the gfs. Actually the ggem is kind of splitting the difference and that might be what ends up happening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

.any details on the gefs yet? 

Gets a much weaker trough in the east around the 18th compared to previous runs. Storm signal is there. Obviously favors rain, although the snow mean during that timeframe is only slightly lower.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Still no give. It's dumping things into the west still. One problem is the gfs products are further northeast with the blocking. Up over Greenland and east vs the euro that has that centered over Baffin Island. That extreme location of the block then buckles everything under it and retrogrades the pacific trough enough to allow pna ridging which lets something dig into the east. Domino effect. If that blocking shifts north at all on the euro/U.K./ggem camp we end up with the gfs. Actually the ggem is kind of splitting the difference and that might be what ends up happening. 

 

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Gets a much weaker trough in the east around the 18th compared to previous runs. Storm signal is there. Obviously favors rain, although the snow mean during that timeframe is only slightly lower.

Thanks 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Still no give. It's dumping things into the west still. One problem is the gfs products are further northeast with the blocking. Up over Greenland and east vs the euro that has that centered over Baffin Island. That extreme location of the block then buckles everything under it and retrogrades the pacific trough enough to allow pna ridging which lets something dig into the east. Domino effect. If that blocking shifts north at all on the euro/U.K./ggem camp we end up with the gfs. Actually the ggem is kind of splitting the difference and that might be what ends up happening. 

Yeah I posted MAPS!! this morning highlighting the differences in the models wrt to the blocking. Its probably pretty likely the euro will back off some on its nearly ideal evolution/location of the block(s) and we get something in between.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

It's better to have outliers looking favorable with long-range guidance than a day or two before any system that would show them more like white noise around consensus. 

This is an extreme long shot anyway.  It would be fun to hear the Euro holds its ground but that is a tall order

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When the EPS showed pretty much no support for the op I already knew it was over for storm 1. Storm 2 is where it's at. 

Hopefully if the euro caves in the day 6-10 it also caves to the better long range idea also. But with out luck euro will be wrong day 6-10 and right day 12-15 lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since Mitch loves the geps so much I'll point out they are awful. They take the initial trough northeast then blast the ridging across and that's it through day 16. Not even that impressive out west. It breaks the blocking down fast so nothing has time to amplify and dig. Very "nothing to see here" 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BristowWx said:

For mental health reasons I suppose it's time to do something I haven't in a long time...log off

Nah hang on for the ride. Don't deny yourself the bipolar experience. There are multiple high-low cycles to come before the ultimate death blow strikes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...