mitchnick Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Using Gfs and Ukie maps off the same site for an apples to apples comparison, Ukie looks closer to Euro from 12z today. Ukie the top link. Forgot to say, Day 6. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 .any details on the gefs yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: .any details on the gefs yet? Still no give. It's dumping things into the west still. One problem is the gfs products are further northeast with the blocking. Up over Greenland and east vs the euro that has that centered over Baffin Island. That extreme location of the block then buckles everything under it and retrogrades the pacific trough enough to allow pna ridging which lets something dig into the east. Domino effect. If that blocking shifts north at all on the euro/U.K./ggem camp we end up with the gfs. Actually the ggem is kind of splitting the difference and that might be what ends up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: .any details on the gefs yet? Gets a much weaker trough in the east around the 18th compared to previous runs. Storm signal is there. Obviously favors rain, although the snow mean during that timeframe is only slightly lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still no give. It's dumping things into the west still. One problem is the gfs products are further northeast with the blocking. Up over Greenland and east vs the euro that has that centered over Baffin Island. That extreme location of the block then buckles everything under it and retrogrades the pacific trough enough to allow pna ridging which lets something dig into the east. Domino effect. If that blocking shifts north at all on the euro/U.K./ggem camp we end up with the gfs. Actually the ggem is kind of splitting the difference and that might be what ends up happening. 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Gets a much weaker trough in the east around the 18th compared to previous runs. Storm signal is there. Obviously favors rain, although the snow mean during that timeframe is only slightly lower. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still no give. It's dumping things into the west still. One problem is the gfs products are further northeast with the blocking. Up over Greenland and east vs the euro that has that centered over Baffin Island. That extreme location of the block then buckles everything under it and retrogrades the pacific trough enough to allow pna ridging which lets something dig into the east. Domino effect. If that blocking shifts north at all on the euro/U.K./ggem camp we end up with the gfs. Actually the ggem is kind of splitting the difference and that might be what ends up happening. Yeah I posted MAPS!! this morning highlighting the differences in the models wrt to the blocking. Its probably pretty likely the euro will back off some on its nearly ideal evolution/location of the block(s) and we get something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Gefs snow is skewed high by 3 extreme solutions. On the up side there are some crazy solutions in there so it's on the table. The down side is most members say fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 It's better to have outliers looking favorable with long-range guidance than a day or two before any system that would show them more like white noise around consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: It's better to have outliers looking favorable with long-range guidance than a day or two before any system that would show them more like white noise around consensus. This is an extreme long shot anyway. It would be fun to hear the Euro holds its ground but that is a tall order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Euro caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This is an extreme long shot anyway. It would be fun to hear the Euro holds its ground but that is a tall order It's gonna fold quicker than me if hotrod walked in the room. Do not google hotrod porn. Just a word of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro caved Ninjad. right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 America! **** yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 That was the best 12 hours of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 LOL. Really, didn't everyone know this was coming? The Ji rule is never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro caved It's the storm after the storm we should be watching anyway. Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 When the EPS showed pretty much no support for the op I already knew it was over for storm 1. Storm 2 is where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When the EPS showed pretty much no support for the op I already knew it was over for storm 1. Storm 2 is where it's at. Just a shame that the ridging in the east strengthened from day 8 to day 9. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 That Aleutian ridge is just a monster this run. Winter weenies out west salivate over that the same way we do with a stout GL block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 NextNo once had it shown back to back good runs this winter. Model and the pattern and the weather are garbage Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When the EPS showed pretty much no support for the op I already knew it was over for storm 1. Storm 2 is where it's at. Hopefully if the euro caves in the day 6-10 it also caves to the better long range idea also. But with out luck euro will be wrong day 6-10 and right day 12-15 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Since Mitch loves the geps so much I'll point out they are awful. They take the initial trough northeast then blast the ridging across and that's it through day 16. Not even that impressive out west. It breaks the blocking down fast so nothing has time to amplify and dig. Very "nothing to see here" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 70s it is next Sunday! Glad thats settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 70s it is next Sunday! Glad thats settled. For mental health reasons I suppose it's time to do something I haven't in a long time...log off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: For mental health reasons I suppose it's time to do something I haven't in a long time...log off Nah hang on for the ride. Don't deny yourself the bipolar experience. There are multiple high-low cycles to come before the ultimate death blow strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 At least last night's run ended our fake snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 EPS improved for the d8-9 deal. Go figure. Control run is a decent event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: 70s it is next Sunday! Glad thats settled. I've got a beer to brew, so I'm down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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