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March medium/long range disco

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ji said:

20-24 inches for DC and its only 8 days out. Get ready Chill

Jesus...

Check out the Kuchera product on Wxbell...widespread 30-50" from DCA to Maine, ha

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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Euro was a nice run to wake up to. Splits the pv rotating a piece through southeast Canada. Then we see major amplification of a well placed trough going negative tilt behind the pv as it pulls away into the 50/50 region. Doubt this exact look will hold but it does show one of the possibilities we will have if we see the extreme blocking actually verify up top and part of the pv paying a visit into southeastern Canada. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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29 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

No way that verifies -- BUT I do like the idea of almost breaking the scale. Didn't PSU say he wanted to go big or go home?

Maybe not with this exact timing. But it does show one very real possible solution we could see as any pv feature retreats out of southeastern Canada. The exact timing of which would still need to be determined. And this is just supposing that we have part of the pv there because the bigger question we really have is what does the pv do after we see the blocking up top develop splitting/partially splitting it? Does it mostly dump into the west, where it would basically kill any chances, at least initially or does it mostly dump into the east? 

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe not with this exact timing. But it does show one very real possible solution we could see as any pv feature retreats out of southeastern Canada. The exact timing of which would still need to be determined. And this is just supposing that we have part of the pv there because the bigger question we really have is what does the pv do after we see the blocking up top develop splitting/partially splitting it? Does it mostly dump into the west, where it would basically kill any chances, at least initially or does it mostly dump into the east? 

The op runs at 0z were really nice. Good trends continue. Just took a peak at the EPS and still not much of a signal for snow in our region. Its gotten slightly better each of the last 2 runs, So we keep monitoring. I expect it to get better given the trends at h5. This is fun, even if we are heading to ultimate failure lol.

Notice the increase in dead among us now? :P 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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Wife is dragging me to an old manuscript exhibit in DC today :( so my time is somewhat limited this morning. But here are some quick thoughts on what I saw on the overnight runs.

At this point I am not overly concerned with what the wave pattern through the CONUS looks like and any details related to that. Think there will be much variability in that over the coming days as the models work out what they want to do up top with the blocking and with the pv which are the features that are important at this time. Ah, and can't forget the Pacific, the freaking Pacific which has been the bane of this winter. So I am concentrating on those features for the most part.

Note: All comparisons made with the overnight run of the GEFS are in regards to the 12Z run.

At this point the GEFS strongly favors dumping the PV into western Canada (day 7/8) which we do not want to see. The strong low pressure anomalies @500mb extending from the pv down into the trough in the northwest are a strong indicator of this. Now it may be nothing more then run to run variability but GEFS may have made a small positive adjustment towards moving away from that idea. These anomalies have weakened a touch and the trough in the northwest has been muted somewhat. Now if this is a legitimate trend we should see these anomalies weaken even further towards the southwest and begin to broaden and strengthen more to the east/southeast over subsequent runs. We would also hopefully see a continuation of the trough being less pronounced. If we were to see to these trends develop it would hopefully be a signal that the GEFS was signaling a move towards dumping the pv farther east hopefully towards southeastern Canada. One other thing noticed was the fact that the positioning of the pv in northern Canada has been shifted to the east somewhat which also may be an indicator that the GEFS is moving away from the idea of a pv dump into the west. 

The GEFS long term (10 day +) IMO has definitely improved though. Whereas we saw on the 12z the pv move away from the split and consolidating the pv over the north pole we now see a continuation of the elongation and split/partial split of this feature through day 15 and beyond. This would suggest a continuation of potential for an extended period of time, temps cooperating of course. So all in all the GEFS was an improvement IMO in the features that are critical at this time.

Running out of time so I will make this somewhat brief on the EPS. Again just focusing on the pv, northwest trough, and the blocking. EPS has improved a good bit in the mid range (day 7-10). Blocking up top has noticeable strengthened and has made a strong move towards the idea of a pv split bringing the pv much farther south then previous runs. At this point it strongly favors dumping the pv into southeast Canada. There is also a notable dampening of the northwest trough. These are all things we want to see.

Long term on the EPS has degrade somewhat. Would suggest that our window would end after day 12 as the pv withdraws and ridging builds into the east.

Anyway just my take. Let's see how this plays out.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The op runs at 0z were really nice. Good trends continue. Just took a peak at the EPS and still not much of a signal for snow in our region. Its gotten slightly better each of the last 2 runs, So we keep monitoring. This is fun, even if we are heading to ultimate failure lol.

Notice the increase in dead among us now? :P 

This old fart is still alive and kicking. Have dealt with disappointment most of my life so this will be no different. :D

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The op runs at 0z were really nice. Good trends continue. Just took a peak at the EPS and still not much of a signal for snow in our region. Its gotten slightly better each of the last 2 runs, So we keep monitoring. I expect it to get better given the trends at h5. This is fun, even if we are heading to ultimate failure lol.

Notice the increase in dead among us now? :P 

My money is on the control run. That would be a fitting end to this horrid winter.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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EPS snowfall means pretty much follows the 500mb means in suggesting our window closes around day 12. Most of our snow is seen prior to that. Wouldn't be overly concerned thou with what the EPS is showing at this time because if we do see the extreme blocking I don't expect the pattern to break down as quickly as it suggests. Just my thoughts on it. 

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Huge disparity currently between the globals for late next weekend, GFS has us in the 70s, while the CMC and Euro have 20s and 30s lol.

I am hoping for the best window to be earlier, more like the EPS is suggesting. Getting a snowstorm past St Pattys day gets much tougher by the day.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Huge disparity currently between the globals for late next weekend, GFS has us in the 70s, while the CMC and Euro have 20s and 30s lol.

I am hoping for the best window to be earlier, more like the EPS is suggesting. Getting a snowstorm past St Pattys day gets much tougher by the day.

Give me the mid-range of the Euro and the long range of the gfs and I would be happy. Famous last words but in all seriousness from what I have seen over the last few days I think some variation of that is what will play out. Though I don't know if I quite buy into the GFS's idea of extending it so long yet. Whether we score anything is another story.

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Give me the mid-range of the Euro and the long range of the gfs and I would be happy. Famous last words but in all seriousness from what I have seen over the last few days I think some variation of that is what will play out. Though I don't know if I quite buy into the GFS's idea of extending it so long yet. Whether we score anything is another story.

Yeah it will be interesting to see how this pattern evolves. I give the edge to the Euro, with its top notch super computers and higher resolution. Get ready for historic snow :P 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Give me the mid-range of the Euro and the long range of the gfs and I would be happy. Famous last words but in all seriousness from what I have seen over the last few days I think some variation of that is what will play out. Though I don't know if I quite buy into the GFS's idea of extending it so long yet. Whether we score anything is another story.

 

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it will be interesting to see how this pattern evolves. I give the edge to the Euro, with its top notch super computers and higher resolution. Get ready for historic snow :P 

Have been a little rushed this morning but have a second to elaborate on my reasoning.

When the models started advertising this blocking quite awhile ago you could see the possibilities, though still slim, unfolding. Though at that point I questioned whether we would even see this blocking verify let alone being able to overcome the hostile Pacific. As we have progressed over time we have seen the models not only not lose this blocking but continue to strengthen it and begin to extend it over the top. As this feature has strengthened and extended in subsequent runs, in my mind it not only told me that we were probably talking the real deal with the blocking but also that it might be extreme enough to overcome the Pacific. We have now reached a point in time where the blocking starts setting up in a couple/few days (so I it is most likely legit) and we now have kick ass blocking extending completely over the top which looks to split the pv. With the Pacific trough weakening over the last few days and the extreme blocking showing up I feel we have reached the point where the Pacific will be overcome thus we hopefully see the PV dump into southeastern Canada in the shorter term, as we see with the Euro.  I will also mention that the trends I have seen on the models on the key features over the last few days have been moving in this direction.

Longer term I like the idea of the GFS because such a strong feature as the extreme blocking we are now seeing isn't normally so easily manhandled out of the way as the Euro suggests. Now the length that the GFS suggests is quite possible given the extreme nature of the block I don't know if I buy into it quite yet.

Now I will say. If we see that extreme blocking begin to diminish a good deal over the next few days then we are most likely pooched because we would probably see a reversal on the outcome. A pv dump into western Canada and a short term pv split/partial split as the pv would then move north and consolidate over the north pole. So if we are looking for a red flag in this setup the weakening of the blocking is probably it.

So here's hoping we roll a seven because I am so damned tired of seeing snake eyes this winter.

 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Quick comment on the GEFS before I head to the gallows...errrr.... to the old manuscript exhibit in DC. Mid range we are seeing the low pressure anomalies @500mb from the pv to the trough in the northwest now beginning to broaden and expand towards the east and south east signaling, hopefully, a further move towards the idea of the pv dumping eastward instead of the west. Also of note, day 15 at 500mb is a little interesting to say the least.

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Can see the differences between the eps and gefs next for weekend, and why the euro has an earlier period of potential. Pretty big differences with the position of the blocking ridges- the eps has the NA ridge pushing further west and bridging with the Bering Straight ridge, which is further north, and the GoAK trough is less hostile/weaker and further north, so there is more ridging in the western US. I am rooting for the faster evolution, and for it to become more favorable in future runs. Do not like that the gefs wants to delay any "good period" until well past mid March, for a multitude of reasons.

eps.pnggefs.png

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs goes nuts in the long range. Wow. Given the blocking and the amplification showing up there are going to be some fun solutions showing up.  details won't be known for a while. 

I'm working 8-6 today evaluating government bridge projects so not a lot of time today, but what I said yesterday still stands. That blocking is going to cause some fun runs. But the guidance is all over the place wrt details. 

The euro and EPS are focused more on the first cold shot but that's fighting a bad but improving epo. The op euro being the extreme idea. 

Gefs goes nuts day 13-16 and is keying on a second shot as the PAC improves and it holds the blocking long enough to dump into the east. Huge snow spike on gefs day 13-16. A few members do snow day 8-10 so it's also saying slim chance there too. 

The gefs look is actually better only it's 4 days later. EPS breaks the block down faster so when the PAC improves it's too late. 

No idea which is more correct. Have to see what trends as this evolves. Hopefully out Hail Mary works out. 

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