psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yes, he was clearly saying that - impression I got that it wasn't remotely good for snow/cold like the Op was trying to show. Since I can't access the Euro, was curious what our tracking die-hards were seeing... The EPS is colder and the trough is a little better day 6-10 this run then last. Snow for that period increased a bit but overall went down some because the day 10-15 got worse. It does build another trough day 14-15 but relaxes day 11-13. It's clearly a better run then the last EPS but does it go to the extreme of the op with the trough no. So take it however you can want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The EPS is colder and the trough is a little better day 6-10 this run then last. Snow for that period increased a bit but overall went down some because the day 10-15 got worse. It does build another trough day 14-15 but relaxes day 11-13. It's clearly a better run then the last EPS but does it go to the extreme of the op with the trough no. So take it however you can want. Wasn't being argumentative, I was simply trying to reconcile Ian on twitter (Ian being Ian) vs. what you all were seeing, since I can't see either the Op or the ensembles for the Euro at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Wasn't being argumentative, I was simply trying to reconcile Ian on twitter (Ian being Ian) vs. what you all were seeing, since I can't see either the Op or the ensembles for the Euro at the moment... Who knows what he was getting at. In the tweet he specifically mentions hour 240. The eps looks different, and it should as its a mean, but the argument could certainly be made that it looks better than the op, which has a deep western trough and ridging on the east coast @ 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 I just toggled back and forth between today 168 and yesterday 192 on TT. Holy Sh!!!t. All bets are off beyond day 5 in this pattern until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Gfs goes nuts in the long range. Wow. Given the blocking and the amplification showing up there are going to be some fun solutions showing up. details won't be known for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 All I can say is, Dam. Look up top with that blocking. And that runs from roughly day 9 through the whole run. And no surprise, we also see a pv split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs goes nuts in the long range. Wow. Given the blocking and the amplification showing up there are going to be some fun solutions showing up. details won't be known for a while. You ninja'ed me by a couple of seconds. That is just an unbelievable look. Get the pv on our side of the globe to locate around the lakes/southeastern Canada and rotate there and I will like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Why is that not the map for 25 December....why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Hour 336+ is pure porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: All I can say is, Dam. Look up top with that blocking. And that runs from roughly day 9 through the whole run. And no surprise, we also see a pv split. That's the map I envision seeing next year. Honestly. Otoh, it's a darn shame it took the trees and flowers to start blooming to get a "real" winter map around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 The good trends on the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS are mostly related to the further north position of the western block/AK vortex. Allows the western blocking ridge to bridge with the NA ridge, forcing the TPV underneath, and also builds heights in the western US (and in a better position), allowing for deeper trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's the map I envision seeing next year. Honestly. Otoh, it's a darn shame it took the trees and flowers to start blooming to get a "real" winter map around here. I guess better late than never?? But really--this far out--are we in believeable range? Man I want it, but it's hard for me to buy in. The fact is though, I'll buy anything winter related at this point. We need to bring this winter to a bombogenesis ending. Give me some March 1993 to go please. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Similar to the EPS, GEFS favors areas mostly to our N for snow chances, although the snow mean increased some, mainly for N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Similar to the EPS, GEFS favors areas mostly to our N for snow chances, although the snow mean increased some, mainly for N MD. The day 6-10 period is just north of us with the good snow. There was a bigger jump in snow day 14-16. The guidance is hinting as a major storm in the east aroumd that time. I know it's far out but it keeps showing up on all the guidance for several runs now. The idea of something aroumd march 16-18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The day 6-10 period is just north of us with the good snow. There was a bigger jump in snow day 14-16. The guidance is hinting as a major storm in the east aroumd that time. I know it's far out but it keeps showing up on all the guidance for several runs now. The idea of something aroumd march 16-18th. Yeah there is a signal there for sure. Based on today's runs I remain interested in the March 10-12 period. That just might trend better and present some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah there is a signal there for sure. Based on today's runs I remain interested in the March 10-12 period. That just might trend better and present some potential. Yea I wasn't discounting it and it's trending closer just pointing out the signal for a big east coast storm aroumd the 16-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: All I can say is, Dam. Look up top with that blocking. And that runs from roughly day 9 through the whole run. And no surprise, we also see a pv split. Ok. I think that has me excited. Yes I know it's a mean, but if we got an h5 look like that, in March, with such contrasts in air masses, I think it would produce a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 The fact that this mornings "event" was crushed to our south in only 2-3 days frankly gives me hope that the models could easily be 75-100 miles too far north with the day 8 system. Who knows, maybe it goes to our south like that cluster on the eps Bob mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The fact that this mornings "event" was crushed to our south in only 2-3 days frankly gives me hope that the models could easily be 75-100 miles too far north with the day 8 system. Who knows, maybe it goes to our south like that cluster on the eps Bob mentioned. I recall both the March 2014 storms being well to the north of our region before wildly trending south in the last few days before each storm. Maybe we aren't hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 despite our enthusiasm for an epic pattern, the 0z op GFS doesn't show one flake of snow for our region...not even one flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: despite our enthusiasm for an epic pattern, the 0z op GFS doesn't show one flake of snow for our region...not even one flake. The pattern is pretty epic though. The blocking is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: The pattern is pretty epic though. Yes it is epic. Epically similar to the rest of this winter. There is nothing even worth tracking..no period of interest at all. Here is my guess...the Euro looks like dog crap next run. I know it's op run but it looks like every other run previous...strong cold fronts and dry weather until it rains with a SE ridge. The blocking is insane..but it's not translating to anything white. I want some fantasy snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: despite our enthusiasm for an epic pattern, the 0z op GFS doesn't show one flake of snow for our region...not even one flake. I don't think anyone is going that far. There looks to be some great blocking and a major trough but the location of that and timing is all over the place and weather any storm affects us is doubtful but it's an amplified possibly exciting pattern. I know most are looking at the day 6-10 period but if we do get a big storm (and I doubt we do) my bet is on the march 16-18 period. The setup day 6-10 just doesn't look like it's likely to dig enough to get under us. But a lot of guidance is hinting at a major amplification mid month and if we get lucky and that happens in the right spot we would have a chance. And you can say not a flake on the gfs but if you don't see any potential in this then I don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes it is epic. Epically similar to the rest of this winter. There is nothing even worth tracking..no period of interest at all. Here is my guess...the Euro looks like dog crap next run. I know it's op run but it looks like every other run previous...strong cold fronts and dry weather until it rains with a SE ridge. I know that this is a 300+ hour OP run, but this is a look that we have not seen all winter. I see mid-March as an interesting period, as the blocking should break down by then. PSU ninja'd me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: despite our enthusiasm for an epic pattern, the 0z op GFS doesn't show one flake of snow for our region...not even one flake. I think the problem might be if your looking at the surface. I don't generally even care or look at the surface past day 7. I'm looking at that h5 look and seeing how that could easily have been a storm. The vort goes south actually. But the gfs has been hitting that period several runs now. The EPS and geps is hinting with time members showing a storm around there too. My guess is the day 6-10 deteriorates though. I don't think the trough is going to dig enough in that period. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't think anyone is going that far. There looks to be some great blocking and a major trough but the location of that and timing is all over the place and weather any storm affects us is doubtful but it's an amplified possibly exciting pattern. I know most are looking at the day 6-10 period but if we do get a big storm (and I doubt we do) my bet is on the march 16-18 period. The setup day 6-10 just doesn't look like it's likely to dig enough to get under us. But a lot of guidance is hinting at a major amplification mid month and if we get lucky and that happens in the right spot we would have a chance. And you can say not a flake on the gfs but if you don't see any potential in this then I don't know what to say. I see lots of potential in that. But you can't shovel potential. Just kidding. I am in until the end hoping for one good paste job. Not too much to ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Euro looks to have a major snowstorm day 9Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks to have a major snowstorm day 9 Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The east coast gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 20-24 inches for DC and its only 8 days out. Get ready Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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