March medium/long range disco

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Quick rundown.  Euro and EPS held serve with a pretty good threat window day 8-15.  Op euro has a great setup day 10 for a storm around day 11/12 and ensembles and control support it.  The general idea is an initial system bombing to our northeast then something coming across as the trough digs in behind the first system  lots of cold available.  

The gefs is doing what the EPS was a couple days ago.  Weaker 50/50 feature or Quebec PV lobe and so it pulls the trough back into the west and and ridging in the east.  6z did take a slight nudge towards the EPS but not impressive yet  

The geps appears to agree with the gefs bit this is a perfect example of how a mean can be misleading.   On the mean there is weak ridging across the south and avg to slightly below across the north.  Looks closer to the gefs.  But looking at the members about 70% agree with the euro on a major trough and storm in the east day 10-15.  A few are snow.  Others are close but the surface is warm, it is mid march, but that still puts it in the euro camp.  There are lots of cold rain results in the EPS also so that's a threat obviously this late.  The mean looks bad because a few members develop a super ridge that skews things and most pop a ridge before or after the storm and timing differences combined with the extreme warm minority camp combine to wash out the details and hide the storm signal but it's there.

On another note...The model war has flipped sides. The euro and EPS is trolling us hard.  The geps agrees on a big east storm in the mid month and the gefs is playing dr no.  There were other times the euro played the yes role too like mid December and early feb when we had a couple 4-6" EPS runs that produced nothing.  So at the least when this fails we can cool it with the euro worshiping for a while. Yes it's better but it fails too and you can't just look at one thing and ignore all else. 

Excellent time for a second cup and a bagel...if you said "step back" I was going to replace the coffee with scotch and the bagel with bourbon

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Excellent time for a second cup and a bagel...if you said "step back" I was going to replace the coffee with scotch and the bagel with bourbon

There is a signal for a storm sometime in the day 8-15 period. The day 8-10 period would be a boundary runner type system most likely. The day 10-15 threat if it happens is the chance of a digging system in the east.  But we're talking an extreme late save type thing. Hail Mary of all hail Mary's. I guess what I'm saying is we might as well stay for the last play, what's the point in leaving now. But don't expect it to work. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a signal for a storm sometime in the day 8-15 period. The day 8-10 period would be a boundary runner type system most likely. The day 10-15 threat if it happens is the chance of a digging system in the east.  But we're talking an extreme late save type thing. Hail Mary of all hail Mary's. I guess what I'm saying is we might as well stay for the last play, what's the point in leaving now. But don't expect it to work. 

yeah..I know what we are up against...time, climo, sun angle...but might as well just see it play out...it will do what its going to do whether we watch or not.

[Scraff]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a signal for a storm sometime in the day 8-15 period. The day 8-10 period would be a boundary runner type system most likely. The day 10-15 threat if it happens is the chance of a digging system in the east.  But we're talking an extreme late save type thing. Hail Mary of all hail Mary's. I guess what I'm saying is we might as well stay for the last play, what's the point in leaving now. But don't expect it to work. 

Plenty of people have already left the stadium. I have taught my kids though to never leave a game until it's 100% over. Crazy stuff can happen in the final minutes or innings and then you're kicking yourself the rest of your life for missing it. So what this adds to the discussion here...I'm still mad I missed a late innings Eddie Murray grand slam in the mid 80s.  And uhhhhh let's get this storm to happen. Lol. 

[ge0]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Plenty of people have already left the stadium. I have taught my kids though to never leave a game until it's 100% over. Crazy stuff can happen in the final minutes or innings and then you're kicking yourself the rest of your life for missing it. So what this adds to the discussion here...I'm still mad I missed a late innings Eddie Murray grand slam in the mid 80s.  And uhhhhh let's get this storm to happen. Lol. 

April will deliver. Just wait. We're due!

[showmethesnow]

12Z GFS op run is trying hard to split the pv.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

12Z GFS op run is trying hard to split the pv.

seems like it has been trying.  but I am seeing a massive ridge in the center of the US.  Maybe it will get better later in the run. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

12Z GFS op run is trying hard to split the pv.

Past results don't always guarantee future outcomes and all...and with shorter wavelenghts in March then Feb odds favor more help from such an event, but we had a PV split back in February and it did virtually nothing for us because the Pacific influence was stronger and forced ridging across the CONUS anyways.   The see exactly what your looking at and it is a good thing, and it could help, I am just warning don't be shocked if it splits and if the trough in the Pacific is too close and strong it just blasts the SW flow across the continent and shoves whatever trough tries to dig northeast of us.  I think the blocking and the PV split are real.  I am just not sure it will help us at all.  

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

12Z GFS op run is trying hard to split the pv.

And the big western trough is again trying hard to keep the cold from pressing very far south. Need relaxation there so heights build more out west instead of a broad ridge developing across the central and eastern US. Pacific domination look on this run.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, BristowWx said:

seems like it has been trying.  but I am seeing a massive ridge in the center of the US.  Maybe it will get better later in the run. 

I have not even looked at the 12z run at all yet, but this is exactly what I was talking about in my past above.  If the pacific pattern remains dominant its going to try to pump ridging to its east across the CONUS and with all that heat from the warm SST in the Pacific, Gulf, and western Atlantic....thats probably going to win unless the blocking goes totally ape crazy.  We need the pacific to relax just a bit, get that trough to retrograde west a bit, and allow the trough to dig into the east.  

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have not even looked at the 12z run at all yet, but this is exactly what I was talking about in my past above.  If the pacific pattern remains dominant its going to try to pump ridging to its east across the CONUS and with all that heat from the warm SST in the Pacific, Gulf, and western Atlantic....thats probably going to win unless the blocking goes totally ape crazy.  We need the pacific to relax just a bit, get that trough to retrograde west a bit, and allow the trough to dig into the east.  

right.  h5 looks bad up to 168.  but again, its the op run and the players are there just in wrong positions.  The AK ridge needs to move east like 500 miles.

edit:  by 192 it straight up bad with trough in the west.  not a good look to me.

[psuhoffman]

I am looking at it now, not sure how far out you all are, but I am only out to about 180, and that is NOT where the Euro has the threat window yet anyways.  That first trough that comes across slides to our north but once to our northeast it is part of the process that helps pump heights up into Greenland and reload the blocking and that might lead to a better pattern out towards day 10.  We will see soon, but the ridging showing up there around day 6-8 is on all the guidance.  It is after the cutter day 7/8 that we MAY have a threat window.  

I still find it ironic that the GFS and Euro have completely flipped sides.  WIth the initial trough that is now going north the GFS kept trying to get that down into the east and the Euro was saying no, now with the next trough its the Euro saying yes and GFS no...  lets test the Euro superiority vs the ride the model with the least snow theory.  

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

12Z GFS op run is trying hard to split the pv.

thats some serious blocking

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017030312&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=333.3333435058594

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

thats some serious blocking

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017030312&fh=162&xpos=0&ypos=333.3333435058594

It's unbelievable that THAT could be offset completely, and if that actually happens it shows what we were fighting against.  But my guess is IF that blocking goes down like that it would force the cold in Canada down into the CONUS more then its showing right there, perhaps it does later in the run, we will see.  But that is some pretty extreme blocking to need to rely on that is not a great spot to be in.  More likely a slightly less robust block sets up and its not able to overcome the crap pacific.  

[BristowWx]

I see a massive Western trough at 216. 

[psuhoffman]

THe blocking looks like it is going to force a monster trough down into the US only its dumping into the West...perhaps it comes east but either way its at the range where details don't matter.  The "players" are there and I could see how we end up with some monster amplification of the trough mid month with this pattern.  If it happens in a way that benefits us is less likely but I suppose anythings possible.  

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Past results don't always guarantee future outcomes and all...and with shorter wavelenghts in March then Feb odds favor more help from such an event, but we had a PV split back in February and it did virtually nothing for us because the Pacific influence was stronger and forced ridging across the CONUS anyways.   The see exactly what your looking at and it is a good thing, and it could help, I am just warning don't be shocked if it splits and if the trough in the Pacific is too close and strong it just blasts the SW flow across the continent and shoves whatever trough tries to dig northeast of us.  I think the blocking and the PV split are real.  I am just not sure it will help us at all.  

The key, if we do see a split, is where that feature sets up, how far south it comes and what the configuration looks like as it spins there for a period of time. To be honest my interest level is increasing somewhat as far as this is concerned. I have some thoughts that I may share later but I want to see what the 12z looks like and possibly the 00z before I possibly elaborate some. And I do agree the PAC could very well screw this up.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

The key, if we do see a split, is where that feature sets up, how far south it comes and what the configuration looks like as it spins there for a period of time. To be honest my interest level is increasing somewhat as far as this is concerned. I have some thoughts that I may share later but I want to see what the 12z looks like and possibly the 00z before I possibly elaborate some. And I do agree the PAC could very well screw this up.

This run was interesting, but keep in mind its a long range op, but it definitely results in a deep enough trough and cold, only it aims it into the west.  But to me this was a step towards what we want to see.  Get the PV split, get the blocking, get some major amplification of the trough and wavelengths to buckle and then take our chances that perhaps it ends up in the East.  That fast transient pacific driven pattern was doing nothing for us.  This at least gives us a chance.  Just have to adjust some of the features around a little, not much given how the models are acting lately.  

[psuhoffman]

GGEM is still in the EUro camp FWIW.  Gives the northern 1/2 of our area a couple inches of snow before changing to rain with the day 8/9 system riding the boundary, then is setting up something day 10 like the euro was...system diving into the east with a high in place.  If anything it might go south of us in that setup.  Details don't matter but its the setup we want to see.  So far GFS too an interesting positive step, GGEM still looks good...waiting on euro and ensembles.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This run was interesting, but keep in mind its a long range op, but it definitely results in a deep enough trough and cold, only it aims it into the west.  But to me this was a step towards what we want to see.  Get the PV split, get the blocking, get some major amplification of the trough and wavelengths to buckle and then take our chances that perhaps it ends up in the East.  That fast transient pacific driven pattern was doing nothing for us.  This at least gives us a chance.  Just have to adjust some of the features around a little, not much given how the models are acting lately.  

yes if we saw a massive trough in the east on this run...darkest of blue...we wouldn't buy it anyway.  But seeing that blocking is quite exciting.  yet with all that...the seasonal pattern we have suffered through emerges...not saying this time will be different or not...but the hot hand continues to show itself. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This run was interesting, but keep in mind its a long range op, but it definitely results in a deep enough trough and cold, only it aims it into the west.  But to me this was a step towards what we want to see.  Get the PV split, get the blocking, get some major amplification of the trough and wavelengths to buckle and then take our chances that perhaps it ends up in the East.  That fast transient pacific driven pattern was doing nothing for us.  This at least gives us a chance.  Just have to adjust some of the features around a little, not much given how the models are acting lately.  

At this point I am more concerned with seeing at least a further elongation of the pv if not an outright split. Where that pv feature sets up at this point on the op is not of much concern but I do have some thoughts of where I think it will and it won't be in the west. I am looking forward to seeing what the GEFS show as well as the eps. If I were to hazard a guess I think we will see some noticeable improvement. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

yes if we saw a massive trough in the east on this run...darkest of blue...we wouldn't buy it anyway.  But seeing that blocking is quite exciting.  yet with all that...the seasonal pattern we have suffered through emerges...not saying this time will be different or not...but the hot hand continues to show itself. 

One thing of note on the guidance now, is heading into mid march they are finally amplifying things.  They are all doing it around day 8-10, GGEM and EUro into the east and the GFS wants to aim it into the west.  The GFS does eventually dig some systems into the west way out towards day 15.  EPS and GEPS have some members that amplify the trough around then also.  But the bottom line is the broad wavelength transient pacific driven pattern seems to be changing.  THe jet is definitely showing signs of buckling on all the guidance and that is good.  About the only way we are going to fight off all those issues we have pointed out all season is to get the jet to buckle and hope the trough can bully its way into the east.  A zonal flow with all that warm aimed at us is NOT going to work.  

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One thing of note on the guidance now, is heading into mid march they are finally amplifying things.  They are all doing it around day 8-10, GGEM and EUro into the east and the GFS wants to aim it into the west.  The GFS does eventually dig some systems into the west way out towards day 15.  EPS and GEPS have some members that amplify the trough around then also.  But the bottom line is the broad wavelength transient pacific driven pattern seems to be changing.  THe jet is definitely showing signs of buckling on all the guidance and that is good.  About the only way we are going to fight off all those issues we have pointed out all season is to get the jet to buckle and hope the trough can bully its way into the east.  A zonal flow with all that warm aimed at us is NOT going to work.  

We hoped and sorta expected the block to no break down fast. The EPS a week+ ago was showing a one and done or 1-2 and done pass with the PV lobe before losing the look. When I saw that I started seriously doubting that things would give us a larger window but in the back of my mind I kept thinking that more often than not, a stout block like that with a pv pinwheel going on below it, it can have some staying power. 

Each pass of the PV helps maintain the blocking in the davis straights. That's an ideal location for us because it can be temporarily self sustaining when the pinwheel lobes generate "ridging waves" in front of them. Anytime you can maintain pv lobes spinning but not making it north of the davis straights you can envision an extended period of the repeating pattern. 

Even if the GFS op is right with a western dump, as long as we have the block keeping lobes from escaping north of the davis straights then subsequent troughs can continue carving eastward. The big N-S thermal gradient in the conus that this pattern produces makes any energy rounding the base capable of going bigger than it would in January. It's a high octane pattern. Even if we fail miserably, I'm pretty much expecting someone to get one or more big snowstorms in March. The NE and upper MW obviously sitting in the better spots but at least a couple ingredients are setting up to be in place where even the sorry ass mid atlantic could get pasted. 

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We hoped and sorta expected the block to no break down fast. The EPS a week+ ago was showing a one and done or 1-2 and done pass with the PV lobe before losing the look. When I saw that I started seriously doubting that things would give us a larger window but in the back of my mind I kept thinking that more often than not, a stout block like that with a pv pinwheel going on below it, it can have some staying power. 

Each pass of the PV helps maintain the blocking in the davis straights. That's an ideal location for us because it can be temporarily self sustaining when the pinwheel lobes generate "ridging waves" in front of them. Anytime you can maintain pv lobes spinning but not making it north of the davis straights you can envision an extended period of the repeating pattern. 

Even if the GFS op is right with a western dump, as long as we have the block keeping lobes from escaping north of the davis straights then subsequent troughs can continue carving eastward. The big N-S thermal gradient in the conus that this pattern produces makes any energy rounding the base capable of going bigger than it would in January. It's a high octane pattern. Even if we fail miserably, I'm pretty much expecting someone to get one or more big snowstorms in March. The NE and upper MW obviously sitting in the better spots but at least a couple ingredients are setting up to be in place where even the sorry ass mid atlantic could get pasted. 

 

Yep agree.  I expect some big storms to show up in this pattern. As you say it's a loaded pattern. I'm still bearish on odds or does us good right here but it could. I'm not ruling it out. But I'm happy with what I see because given where we are and the time of year and the total fail we've had, go big or go home is fine with me. Early march we can get a winter type storm but mid march it starts to become difficult without some extreme amplification and this is the type of pattern that could happen. I'm not interested in tracking some 1-3" overunning anyways let's get a coastal bomb or just end this thing. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep agree.  I expect some big storms to show up in this pattern. As you say it's a loaded pattern. I'm still bearish on odds or does us good right here but it could. I'm not ruling it out. But I'm happy with what I see because given where we are and the time of year and the total fail we've had, go big or go home is fine with me. Early march we can get a winter type storm but mid march it starts to become difficult without some extreme amplification and this is the type of pattern that could happen. I'm not interested in tracking some 1-3" overunning anyways let's get a coastal bomb or just end this thing. 

Amen.

[showmethesnow]

Pacific wins this one on the GEFS. Shifts the pv westward and we see everything dump to the west. 

[psuhoffman]

Gefs eventually gets the trough into the east but not until day 14. For some reason it's diverging from the other guidance around day 6/7.  The ggem and euro rotate the PV into central Canada under the block and pinwheel it around. The gfs retrogrades it into western Canada. That's the difference. Even the gfs evolution eventually dumps into the east as the blocking holds but it takes a few days longer. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Pacific wins this one on the GEFS. Shifts the pv westward and we see everything dump to the west. 

so it matches the op...interesting

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

so it matches the op...interesting

Yes the gefs is very close to the op. Dumps into the west day 8-12 then eventually digs a trough into the east late in the run. 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

so it matches the op...interesting

Doesn't concern me that much at this point. At least not yet. Very volatile setup and would not be surprised if we see different solutions spit out every run.

For what it's worth we have seen a pretty good uptick with the snowfall means through the 16 day period on the GEFS since the 00Z run. We also are seeing an up tick with the moderate to heavy hitters impacting portions of our region or close to our region through that span.