psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 It's probably just trolling us but if you want snow mid march this would be how to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 3 hours ago, mdsnowlover said: no one is saying YOU should give up on snow this year, however a couple of us who have lived here for more than 20 years dont think its going to snow this winter, I have lived here 60 years. I have fun things to do outside when it hits 50 or higher. I believe as of march 1st the average high is 50 or close to it!!! Enjoy your computer watching!! I expect this to be your last post in this thread then. If you wish to bash people for tracking long range patterns, when you have given up about 100 times already, you can take your thoughts to banter. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It's probably just trolling us but if you want snow mid march this would be how to do it. EPS looks almost identical for that period. Who wants to take the bait? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It's probably just trolling us but if you want snow mid march this would be how to do it. So...as I've been seeing that Canada wants to get cold again, i'm wondering what the chances are of this verifying, and am wondering if the shortening of the wavelenghts going into spring might have any affect on spawning up a few good storms before write off this mess? I mention wavelengths as I'm looking for something to disrupt this seemingly stable pattern as normal indicies have been of little help. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 The 384 is sooo full of hope. All we need is for it to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Amped said: The 384 is sooo full of hope. All we need is for it to verify. isnt it always.... I guess Im just grasping at straws, but something needs to reshuffle the deck, and to me shorter wavelengths going into spring is the only thing we have thats a guarantee, as most good signs on long range modelling seems to go poof as we get closer. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS looks almost identical for that period. Who wants to take the bait? I'm not taking the bait but I'm also not going to pretend to have some kind of clairvoyance and say with certainty it can't be right. I'm keeping the door open just a crack but that doesn't mean I expect anything. I'm just always open to the unexpected possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: isnt it always.... I guess Im just grasping at straws, but something needs to reshuffle the deck, and to me shorter wavelengths going into spring is the only thing we have thats a guarantee, as most good signs on long range modelling seems to go poof as we get closer. Nut Perhaps, seasonal transitions can be volatile. That's why often we will see wintry weather on the fringes of an otherwise crappy winter. There is also just the factor of random chance. But the odds are still against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Certainly a great look that suggests more than a clipper is possible; however, for now let's set the bar at a 1-3" a clipper in the March 8-12th time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not taking the bait but I'm also not going to pretend to have some kind of clairvoyance and say with certainty it can't be right. I'm keeping the door open just a crack but that doesn't mean I expect anything. I'm just always open to the unexpected possibilities. March 1976 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 it's fine to track weather as long as you want. hope is a good thing. the argument could be made that the timing was just horrible this year. we torched thru winter unlike the legendary 2013/14 winter where we became the upper midwest for 4 months. we're somewhat due for a winter like this where we suck for 3 months and then march/april we go all tom brady on 'em. maybe that doesn't happen this year, but it could. who knows. that said, i get what people like psu/bob/etc are in it for...it's to learn. frankly, i think this hobby is somewhat of a waste of time if all you're doing is regurgitating model output each run. that's why i don't even bother with that. for me, i'm either going to try to learn or just let the forecasters tell me what they see. if you actually want to learn about this field, then there's no bad time to track patterns and models. one of these days i may dig deeper into this stuff because it is pretty interesting. on a side note, i'm not gonna lie...this weather has felt incredible. after the last 3 years i really don't mind having a torchy february. it's nice not having to bundle up each day. if we don't get any more snow, then i'm sure by next winter, i'll be ready again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Ok, I'll bite. Let's see if we can get something to go our way just one time. I'm on board for 6", -20 departures for 3 days. Need it to happen before March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 59 minutes ago, 87storms said: it's fine to track weather as long as you want. hope is a good thing. the argument could be made that the timing was just horrible this year. we torched thru winter unlike the legendary 2013/14 winter where we became the upper midwest for 4 months. we're somewhat due for a winter like this where we suck for 3 months and then march/april we go all tom brady on 'em. that said, maybe that doesn't happen this year, but it could. who knows. i get what people like psu/bob/etc are in it for...it's to learn. frankly, i think this hobby is somewhat of a waste of time if all you're doing is regurgitating model output each run. that's why i don't even bother with that. for me, i'm either going to try to learn or just let the forecasters tell me what they see. if you actually want to learn about this field, then there's no bad time to track patterns and models. one of these days i may dig deeper into this stuff because it is pretty interesting. on a side note, i'm not gonna lie...this weather has felt incredible. after the last 3 years i really don't mind having a torchy february. it's nice not having to bundle up each day. if we don't get any more snow, then i'm sure by next winter, i'll be ready again. Despite your sour grapes, and while it may not happen, it may, and its not like the models are showing a continuous torch in the long range. Its not a hope thing when a model tells us that there is potential, we just need to use our best judgment to decipher potential vs reality. And i dare say that for many of us, that IS why we're here, because we enjoy tracking (warm/cold/snow...whatever your pill). If you think it a waste of time...no offense, there are other websites to visit. While we all have different offerings, this site and many on it is a wealth of knowledge and despite the little spats along the way, it is a fantastic place to "waste" time if you enjoy the weather. SMH Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Who remembers the surprise storm around the week of March 7th, 1999? We were not supposed to get much and I don't think they got much east of the beltway, but I was trying to drive from Fairfax to Georgetown and it quickly piled up during rush hour. I think we ended up with 10-12 inches or more. I was very pregnant which is why I remember it pretty clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Despite your sour grapes, and while it may not happen, it may, and its not like the models are showing a continuous torch in the long range. Its not a hope thing when a model tells us that there is potential, we just need to use our best judgment to decipher potential vs reality. And i dare say that for many of us, that IS why we're here, because we enjoy tracking (warm/cold/snow...whatever your pill). If you think it a waste of time...no offense, there are other websites to visit. While we all have different offerings, this site and many on it is a wealth of knowledge and despite the little spats along the way, it is a fantastic place to "waste" time if you enjoy the weather. SMH Nut lol, what are you talking about? i was completely defending continuing to track storms this winter and going forward. you totally misinterpreted my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, 87storms said: it's fine to track weather as long as you want. hope is a good thing. the argument could be made that the timing was just horrible this year. we torched thru winter unlike the legendary 2013/14 winter where we became the upper midwest for 4 months. we're somewhat due for a winter like this where we suck for 3 months and then march/april we go all tom brady on 'em. maybe that doesn't happen this year, but it could. who knows. that said, i get what people like psu/bob/etc are in it for...it's to learn. frankly, i think this hobby is somewhat of a waste of time if all you're doing is regurgitating model output each run. that's why i don't even bother with that. for me, i'm either going to try to learn or just let the forecasters tell me what they see. if you actually want to learn about this field, then there's no bad time to track patterns and models. one of these days i may dig deeper into this stuff because it is pretty interesting. on a side note, i'm not gonna lie...this weather has felt incredible. after the last 3 years i really don't mind having a torchy february. it's nice not having to bundle up each day. if we don't get any more snow, then i'm sure by next winter, i'll be ready again. Well this is a place where we discuss numerical models. Only supercomputers can digest and process the amount of data necessary to project global weather at the surface and aloft. Also, skilled forecasters on this forum, who I am learning a lot from, know how to "use" the model output. For instance, the good forecasters will not put much weight in model details such as shortwave tracks/intensity/surface temperature/etc. in the long range. Rather they look for large long wave patterns/features that would lead to an above normal chance of a storm with enough cold air to give us an above normal chance of snow. So I would suggest that at least the skilled forecasters on here are not just "regurgitating" model output, but rather analyzing it to see if we are getting the bigger features in place and windows of time where we have increased odds of seeing something. In most cases, anybody pointing out an op run that shows a snowstorm 10+ days out is just passing the time, and all the experienced folks on here know that the pattern is far more important at that range than any individual storm on the model, but without the models we would have very little clue as to what the general pattern would look like in the long range, so it's kinda important to discuss the model output, and understand how to use it in the longer range. We have some of the best pattern recognition folks on the boards in here. When Wes chimes in on a particular pattern being shown at range, it's always a good idea to pay attention, others are also skilled at looking at patterns to identify some decent opportunities. Anyway, if you don't like the model analysis you certainly shouldn't be posting that in a board where model analysis is the primary topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, kurtstack said: Well this is a place where we discuss numerical models. Only supercomputers can digest and process the amount of data necessary to project global weather at the surface and aloft. Also, skilled forecasters on this forum, who I am learning a lot from, know how to "use" the model output. For instance, the good forecasters will not put much weight in model details such as shortwave tracks/intensity/surface temperature/etc. in the long range. Rather they look for large long wave patterns/features that would lead to an above normal chance of a storm with enough cold air to give us an above normal chance of snow. So I would suggest that at least the skilled forecasters on here are not just "regurgitating" model output, but rather analyzing it to see if we are getting the bigger features in place and windows of time where we have increased odds of seeing something. In most cases, anybody pointing out an op run that shows a snowstorm 10+ days out is just passing the time, and all the experienced folks on here know that the pattern is far more important at that range than any individual storm on the model, but without the models we would have very little clue as to what the general pattern would look like in the long range, so it's kinda important to discuss the model output, and understand how to use it in the longer range. We have some of the best pattern recognition folks on the boards in here. When Wes chimes in on a particular pattern being shown at range, it's always a good idea to pay attention, others are also skilled at looking at patterns to identify some decent opportunities. Anyway, if you don't like the model analysis you certainly shouldn't be posting that in a board where model analysis is the primary topic. nah, you guys missed my point. maybe i wasn't clear enough. i'm saying that model analysis is actually a good thing, but "only" analyzing the data and not really understanding the patterns can be a waste of time causing everyone to jump ship after each model run. i was actually defending doing more than just putting all your chips into one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 I'm not rooting for snow in the slightest at this point, but to say there will be no snow at all in March is a ballsy call. Even a megatorch DJF winter like 1931-32 couldn't make it through March without a flip and a bit of snow. My point is- I support this thread and anyone who wishes to continue tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 nah, you are guys missed my point. maybe i wasn't clear enough. i'm saying that model analysis is actually a good thing, but "only" analyzing the data and not really understanding the patterns can be a waste of time causing everyone to jump ship after each model run. i was actually defending doing more than just putting all your eggs into one model run.Ah yeah. I think we did misinterpret what you wrote then. There will always be people who get disappointed when a 10 day hecs on an op run disappears, I am guilty as well, but most of us know not to buy into those fantasies till they are at least in the 5-7 day range where consistent op runs of a storm can begin to mean something. Over time you learn who to pay attention to on the boards and who to take with a grain of salt, lol. Im there with the grain of salt.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I'm not rooting for snow in the slightest at this point, but to say there will be no snow at all in March is a ballsy call. Even a megatorch DJF winter like 1931-32 couldn't make it through March without a flip and a bit of snow. My point is- I support this thread and anyone who wishes to continue tracking. yes. interesting how cold the LR looks on the GFS especially at the end. We would be happy with those temps in Jan with some serious cold temps with deep trough at 500mb in the uber LR. I know its one run and the Op.. but it does kind of show at a high level winter might not be done and 60s/70s are now the norm until summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: yes. interesting how cold the LR looks on the GFS especially at the end. We would be happy with those temps in Jan with some serious cold temps with deep trough at 500mb in the uber LR. I know its one run and the Op.. but it does kind of show at a high level winter might not be done and 60s/70s are now the norm until summer. Alternatively, it emphasizes the fact that the GFS climatology at a two week lead is much colder and stormier than reality. The end of the model run gives delusional Myrtle Beach weenies reason to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Alternatively, it emphasizes the fact that the GFS climatology at a two week lead is much colder and stormier than reality. The end of the model run gives delusional Myrtle Beach weenies reason to hope. now that would be a real kick in the head if Myrtle Beach ended up with more snow than us. I'd almost like to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, 87storms said: lol, what are you talking about? i was completely defending continuing to track storms this winter and going forward. you totally misinterpreted my post. "frankly, i think this hobby is somewhat of a waste of time if all you're doing is regurgitating model output each run. that's why i don't even bother with that. for me, " If I misread, then my bad. But this didnt sound "in defense of" to me. Carry on. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: now that would be a real kick in the head if Myrtle Beach ended up with more snow than us. I'd almost like to see that. That will be our storm a few days from now, before it ultimately becomes Chicago's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: That will be our storm a few days from now, before it ultimately becomes Chicago's storm. FWIW....12z GFS 384 shows 534 thickness tickling GA/FL border.... yeah...that b a kick in the sack alright. That would likely dessimate any early fruit trees that may be budding by then. as this year has shown us, its likely not going to happen, but first half of March shouldnt be written off just yet. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 The thing about March (especially near the cities) is the climo fight can ruin things that are otherwise a pretty good chance. The opposite of January and early Feb when a so-so deal can produce something. Of course this year that didn't happen but you guys know what I'm talking about. Diligent long range tracking this late in the season is waste of time beyond just looking at the means and hoping as we get into med-short range that something either shows up or holds together. The same thoughts I had a few days ago are still the same. Looks like a good pattern to build some impressive late season cold in Canada and eventually the US. This "should" make it's way east. The cold Canada pattern seems pretty stable so my guess is a fairly decent period in March will feature cold and stormy weather in the CONUS. Not much else to discuss. Anything specific is 1-2 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing about March (especially near the cities) is the climo fight can ruin things that are otherwise a pretty good chance. The opposite of January and early Feb when a so-so deal can produce something. Of course this year that didn't happen but you guys know what I'm talking about. Diligent long range tracking this late in the season is waste of time beyond just looking at the means and hoping as we get into med-short range that something either shows up or holds together. The same thoughts I had a few days ago are still the same. Looks like a good pattern to build some impressive late season cold in Canada and eventually the US. This "should" make it's way east. The cold Canada pattern seems pretty stable so my guess is a fairly decent period in March will feature cold and stormy weather in the CONUS. Not much else to discuss. Anything specific is 1-2 weeks away. Enjoy the pattern......cause its the only pattern you've got. Beyond next Wednesday, thats arguably the best looking 500mb run I've seen all winter. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, 87storms said: nah, you guys missed my point. maybe i wasn't clear enough. i'm saying that model analysis is actually a good thing, but "only" analyzing the data and not really understanding the patterns can be a waste of time causing everyone to jump ship after each model run. i was actually defending doing more than just putting all your chips into one model run. I got what you were saying, sometimes its difficult on here though and people are a bit chippy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I'm not rooting for snow in the slightest at this point, but to say there will be no snow at all in March is a ballsy call. Even a megatorch DJF winter like 1931-32 couldn't make it through March without a flip and a bit of snow. My point is- I support this thread and anyone who wishes to continue tracking. People keep throwing 1931/32 around, and I have not looked at it as an analog in any reasonable sense except snowfall, but up here we only had 5" total on the winter (even less then this year) going into March and then had 12" in March from an 8" and 4" storms. Still finished below 50% of normal but I would take such an ending this year and go into spring with a "better luck next year" attitude. I know some start to root for the total fail at some point but I am not one of them. Warm is nice and we will have plenty of warm days but snow is rare and not getting any really for a while year is just depressing. Even if its in March and melts by noon any snow is better then no snow to me. Just my opinion and no need to hate, I totally understand those that are done with winter and want to move on. To each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: People keep throwing 1931/32 around, and I have not looked at it as an analog in any reasonable sense except snowfall, but up here we only had 5" total on the winter (even less then this year) going into March and then had 12" in March from an 8" and 4" storms. Still finished below 50% of normal but I would take such an ending this year and go into spring with a "better luck next year" attitude. I know some start to root for the total fail at some point but I am not one of them. Warm is nice and we will have plenty of warm days but snow is rare and not getting any really for a while year is just depressing. Even if its in March and melts by noon any snow is better then no snow to me. Just my opinion and no need to hate, I totally understand those that are done with winter and want to move on. To each their own. I think the "total fail" option is only because its so late in the game for most to really enjoy some deep winter (well thats what I like anyway). also this late in the game, we have the dreaded sun angle ...blah blah blah... Snow CAN stick around for a couple days in March, but some cold ground is needed to help. I think it fair to say...we got some work to do there. Im not ready to throw any towels, but yeah I guess temper tantrums are much more likely. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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