Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z Euro hinting even more. Tries to get it done with the blocking up top, vortex underneath, and digs a trough pretty deep this run. Just beyond day 10 looks kinda interesting, lol Maybe a 3/14/1993 redo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Just what I want, and nother 2 weeks of close but no cigar. Can we waste another Greenland Block? Probably. There are certainly enough shifts in the guidance from run to run to stay interested. Strong signal for blocking for sure. Just a matter of where and how strong and how it interacts with the PV. Would be nice if the EPS moves off of its recent trend of pacific domination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Maybe a 3/14/1993 redo? I knew that reference was coming. I would be cool though. Ah forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Did you see the setup at day 16? That's just a minor adjustment or two from being the fluke we keep talking about. If nothing else, the GFS has been good for some sh*ts and giggles these last few days. Did you notice last nights EPS despite being a bad run overall had several big snow solutions mixed in. There is still a small camp hidden within the GEFS and EPS that have that fluke idea sometime mid march. Doubt it but I suppose the hail mary is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: Gefs have been crap all season. They have rarely, if ever, led the eps or geps. All of the guidance has been crap this year, which is expected in such a progressive pattern. The Euro products will still win over the GFS products more often then not as they are superior but the spread is not as significant as some think. The GFS and GEFS did win some battles this year. One I can remember specifically was in early February, the EPS was holding the trough in the west and the GEFS correctly shifted it into the east, in the end that did NOT help us at all as the clipper was pathetic and the storm after was sheared apart so we had a transient cold dry shot. But the GEFS still was better from the long range. There were other examples. The one constant about both the GEFS and EPS were both were at times struggling to under value the dominant influence of the Pacific pattern, largely the trough in the eastern Pacific extending into western Canada, and the strong jet undercutting it. Whenever either model tried to buck that and get cold into the east from long range it was wrong 90% of the time. So whichever model was trying to do that was usually wrong. It was the GFS more then the Euro but not all the time. As for the GEPS, on an overall winter scale it was best, but it was best because it simply showed one solution all winter long. It seems to be the best with picking up whatever that dominant factor was and not deviationg, but there were a few times when it did get cold into the east, mid december, early january, and early February, and the GEPS missed all of them because it simply showed a trough west ridge east solution all freaking winter with no deviation. So I do give it credit for pattern identification but it sucked with details within the pattern and seeing the few instances when cold really was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Credit @captin_kirk_wx Looks like the euro op is beating the gefs over the past 30 days. Come on Merica! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 The one thing that can be misleading about verification scores is they cover the entire hemisphere and all we really care about is the tiny little postage stamp we call our yard. The GFS can no doubt be better than the euro with specific events and vice versa. I tend to never discount any euro solution inside of 4 days though. People love it when the euro blows it so they can rag on it but when there is a model war inside of 4 days it's far less common when the euro caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Last night the EPS and gefs started to converge on the compromise solution that's typical when they are so far apart. That compromise isn't so good for us. In the end the pacific problem of all winter is making things difficult one last time. I suppose there is enough blocking around that the signal hidden within the ensembles for an event mid months beats keeping one eye on just in case but the pattern overall is flawed once again. Below is the h5 from the whole winter. The obvious dominant feature is the lower heights over western Canada and the ridging near the Aleutians. We can debate in our post mortals why that was stuck there persistently. Nina. North PAC cold pool. Whatever. But that combined with a strong pacific jet meant out flow was consistently out of the southwest. Then to make matters worse the sst in the eastern tropical pacific and Gulf of Mexico and off the east coast is a raging furnace. That's a lot of heat getting pumped into what already wants to be a ridge. Not good. What couod fight that off at times would be extreme buckling of the jet. Add in a positive AO all winter and forget that. So no buckling, fast jet, and persistent flow off warm waters. Not the recipe for cold. Then the few times that pattern relaxes on one side or the other wasn't timed up. So the total fail was bad luck that during those transient relaxes of the PAC the Atlantic screwed us or flip it around. Now the projected h5 coming up. That pacific look is still there. Better nao and it's trying but the pacific combined with all the heat added by the warm sst to our south is fighting it off. The only shot we have is with that blocking, some runs within the guidance go ape with the nao and that forces something to dig around mid month and go nuts on the east coast. Makes some sense from a shortening wavelengths point of view also that something like that COULD happen. But we're talking the Hail Mary of all Hail Marys here. But it's march and a pretty good nao can't be totally ignored. But odds are the PAC screws us over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Completely agree, Bob. If you ran the verification scores for 20847 that chart could look different. I just found it surprising that the op was beating the gefs pretty much from hour 0 to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Last night the EPS and gefs started to converge on the compromise solution that's typical when they are so far apart. That compromise isn't so good for us. In the end the pacific problem of all winter is making things difficult one last time. I suppose there is enough blocking around that the signal hidden within the ensembles for an event mid months beats keeping one eye on just in case but the pattern overall is flawed once again. Below is the h5 from the whole winter. The obvious dominant feature is the lower heights over western Canada and the ridging near the Aleutians. We can debate in our post mortals why that was stuck there persistently. Nina. North PAC cold pool. Whatever. But that combined with a strong pacific jet meant out flow was consistently out of the southwest. Then to make matters worse the sst in the eastern tropical pacific and Gulf of Mexico and off the east coast is a raging furnace. That's a lot of heat getting pumped into what already wants to be a ridge. Not good. What couod fight that off at times would be extreme buckling of the jet. Add in a positive AO all winter and forget that. So no buckling, fast jet, and persistent flow off warm waters. Not the recipe for cold. Then the few times that pattern relaxes on one side or the other wasn't timed up. So the total fail was bad luck that during those transient relaxes of the PAC the Atlantic screwed us or flip it around. Now the projected h5 coming up. That pacific look is still there. Better nao and it's trying but the pacific combined with all the heat added by the warm sst to our south is fighting it off. The only shot we have is with that blocking, some runs within the guidance go ape with the nao and that forces something to dig around mid month and go nuts on the east coast. Makes some sense from a shortening wavelengths point of view also that something like that COULD happen. But we're talking the Hail Mary of all Hail Marys here. But it's march and a pretty good nao can't be totally ignored. But odds are the PAC screws us over again. Which just shows once again that the Pacific rules the roost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Which just shows once again that the Pacific rules the roost. I think it's pretty even. Problem is the status quo isn't snow for us. So if we get an equally good Atlantic and crappy pacific the balance is not good enough for us. A great Atlantic could overcome a mediocre pacific and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 EPS is starting to suck me back in...lol Two threat windows with the first one d9-10. Beyond that is a scattering but it has been trending towards something getting under us with cold air to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 When it comes to above normal snow, the AO without question rules the roost. There are exceptions to every rule of course but the last 60 years show it pretty starkly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Euro control says don't give up hope just yet...lol .500mb looks good That big elongated HP pressing down from Canada on the OP has pretty strong ensemble support. We're still in lala range, it's late, winter sucks, blah blah but weather will be weather whenever it feels like it. I won't rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 I'm signing up for WxBell before it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is starting to suck me back in...lol Two threat windows with the first one d9-10. Beyond that is a scattering but it has been trending towards something getting under us with cold air to tap. When I read this my first reaction was a sigh and a "here we go again" but then a resigned "ok time to strap the boots on one more time". Let's chase this beast to the bitter end. No retreat, no surrender. 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That big elongated HP pressing down from Canada on the OP has pretty strong ensemble support. We're still in lala range, it's late, winter sucks, blah blah but weather will be weather whenever it feels like it. I won't rule anything out. This couldn't sum up my feeling right now better. There is plenty to argue "just let it go" but that block is there and if the pacific takes its foot off the gas at all or the jet buckles some as the seasonal transition progresses it's not out of the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 I'm in whatever that means. I got no place to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Below is the h5 from the whole winter. The obvious dominant feature CanSIPS saw this coming a year ago. Here are the Dec-Jan-Feb predictions it made last March. The good news is that next February looks a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I'm in whatever that means. I got no place to go. I'm going for double-or-nothing........get that jet down into the GOM and line up for a March 1993 "Return of The Storm Of the Century", or complete fail with no more snow until November. IMO it would almost be annoying to get a smaller wet paste bomb event or two, just enough to make the winter look somewhat below climo but still respectable in the annual stats. Let the historical record accurately reflect the epic futility of this season, the bipolar model runs and incessant teasing in the longer range, the sheer frustration of failing every which way while watching it snow north/south/east/west, and the teeming hordes of weenie souls (including a few METs) who have gone before us to their inevitable reaping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Trends are good lately and continue. Pretty nice look right here. Period around March 12 once again holds some promise on both the GFS and Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Trends are good lately and continue. Pretty nice look right here. Period around March 12 once again holds some promise on both the GFS and Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 If the 18z GFS verified we would all hit 50% of climo. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If the 18z GFS verified we would all hit 50% of climo. LOL Happy hour GFS definitely didn't disappoint. And half of the snow it shows is inside 10 days to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I think it's pretty even. Problem is the status quo isn't snow for us. So if we get an equally good Atlantic and crappy pacific the balance is not good enough for us. A great Atlantic could overcome a mediocre pacific and vice versa Can you give me an example where the Atlantic has trumped a bad Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Happy hour GFS definitely didn't disappoint. And half of the snow it shows is inside 10 days to boot. The 12z ensemble suites with the d9+ deal definitely favors a track N-W of us on the means. Majority of ens members show that. However, the trend the last couple days has actually INCREASED the chance of something tracking under us. Long ways to go before we know one way or the other but seeing an inside of d10 trend in our favor is pretty novel this winter. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you give me an example where the Atlantic has trumped a bad Pacific? Jan 2000. You could also say 95-96 didn't have a very good Pac. The 60's we're loaded with years where the Atl overwhelmed just about everything. It's complicated though. You can find exceptions to everything. But the simplistic view is if you have a POS Atlantic then a good/perfect Pac is basically absolutely required to have a lot of chances but flukes are on the table in any year regardless of any index. If you have a rockin Atlantic then the Pac can be pretty much anything but totally hostile and still be in the game. Things like a GOA or AK vortex of death blasting the continent with maritime air will cause big problems almost 100% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you give me an example where the Atlantic has trumped a bad Pacific? There are degrees of "bad". How would you define a bad pacific? There are no absolutes. We can get an ideal Pac with PNA and EPO favorable, but with nothing happening on the Atlantic side, still have plenty of cold/dry with big cutters. I will take a persistent neg AO/NAO every single time and take my chances that the Pac wont be persistently craptastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the 18z GFS verified we would all hit 50% of climo. LOL All of us? NW of the cities you mean? It looked better for sure but good enough for places SE of 95 I guess I am skeptical even if it verified as shown. Still interested though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the 18z GFS verified we would all hit 50% of climo. LOL If the 18z GFS verified then Wisp might regret closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: All of us? NW of the cities you mean? It looked better for sure but good enough for places SE of 95 I guess I am skeptical even if it verified as shown. Still interested though. It would be civil war in here if that snowfall map verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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