showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We knew it was coming. GFS/GEFS has quickly caved to the Euro. EPS has been consistent for many runs not getting it done with building enough blocking/ getting that piece of the PV underneath. The pacific rules the pattern. Pretty close to throw in the towel time. And as PSU posted, what clipper? Turns out the Euro, and especially the CMC, were correct on that. GFS and NAM have been struggling lately. It is what it is. All good things, well in this case bad, must come to an end. At least we will have seen this horrid winter through to the end without being reaped. Should make us proud or maybe embarrassed haven't quite figured out which one yet. But at least we know we are not quitters like so many on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Today A chance of snow showers between 7am and 4pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 16 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -12. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 22 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 13. Wind chill values as low as -13. Northwest wind around 14 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. Wind chill values as low as -28. Northwest wind around 17 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 5. Northwest wind around 17 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around -2. Northwest wind 10 to 17 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 21. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light north in the afternoon. Forecast for where I'm heading today (Bolton, VT). Chasing snow but I think I found cold instead (won't arrive until this evening). Hope you can join me. Will keep checking twice a day for the next two weeks but certainly looks like our upside the rest of the season is snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Gefs have been crap all season. They have rarely, if ever, led the eps or geps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 So, really, are there people who really thought a good snow pattern was coming? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So, really, are there people who really thought a good snow pattern was coming? Really? I'll be brave and step up. Yes, I thought we had a decent chance and couldn't come to grips with the fact that every month from Nov-March could suck. When I saw the blocking being advertised in late Feb for March, I thought we would have a late save. I thought hope would translate to reality. I was wrong...really wrong. We can't even get a clipper to give us a car topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I'll be brave and step up. Yes, I thought we had a decent chance and couldn't come to grips with the fact that every month from Nov-March could suck. When I saw the blocking being advertised in late Feb for March, I thought we would have a late save. I thought hope would translate to reality. I was wrong...really wrong. We can't even get a clipper to give us a car topper. Fact of the matter is that no guidance has been trustworthy beyond about 5 days. Inside of 5 days we pretty much have looked bad all winter and that look for the most part was spot on correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Fact of the matter is that no guidance has been trustworthy beyond about 5 days. Inside of 5 days we pretty much have looked bad all winter and that look for the most part was spot on correct. The Euro never really signaled a large snow event while in various forms the GFS, NAM, and the CMC did. Why even look look at those other models this winter. If you expect them to be correct over the Euro thats going to be very hard. The Euro's accuracy scores were very high, but even the Euro had periods of drop outs where it totally lost it as well in terms of verification. I am pretty sure the crazy strong Westerly QBO had something to do with the blocking issues, and the incredible early season arctic air masses coming off and into the Sea of Okhotsk and North of there might have messed up the NE Pac The continued false modeling of strong blocking, and the continued too cold medium and long-range model forecast continued all winter , even into this March. Never did things change in this regard. Maybe the summer will not be a torch. Meanwhile East Coast surf temps and Western Atlantic SST are above normal. Maybe an early beach season at the NJ and DE beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So, really, are there people who really thought a good snow pattern was coming? Really? Not this guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I'll be brave and step up. Yes, I thought we had a decent chance and couldn't come to grips with the fact that every month from Nov-March could suck. When I saw the blocking being advertised in late Feb for March, I thought we would have a late save. I thought hope would translate to reality. I was wrong...really wrong. We can't even get a clipper to give us a car topper. The blocking is likely legit. Continues to be a strong signal in the guidance. Problem is the big ass block near the Bering strait and the AK vortex under it seems to be more dominant than the block/vortex in the NA, and is probably destined to wreck the chances of getting a well positioned, deep trough in the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, frd said: The Euro never really signaled a large snow event while in various forms the GFS, NAM, and the CMC did. Why even look look at those other models this winter. If you expect them to be correct over the Euro thats going to be very hard. The Euro's accuracy scores were very high, but even the Euro had periods of drop outs where it totally lost it as well in terms of verification. I am pretty sure the crazy strong Westerly QBO had something to do with the blocking issues, and the incredible early season arctic air masses coming off and into the Sea of Okhotsk and North of there might have messed up the NE Pac The continued false modeling of strong blocking, and the continued too cold medium and long-range model forecast continued all winter , even into this March. Never did things change in this regard. Maybe the summer will not be a torch. Meanwhile East Coast surf temps and Western Atlantic SST are above normal. Maybe an early beach season at the NJ and DE beaches. Are you talking about this clipper? Surely not the whole year. There were several times that the Euro had huge snow totals for me that ended up as a zero. I agree with that and that was a real puzzler. Something made them see good blocking, decent cold at long range, and that something was wrong. But what was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: The blocking is likely legit. Continues to be a strong signal in the guidance. Problem is the big ass block near the Bering strait and the AK vortex under it seems to be more dominant than the block/vortex in the NA, and is probably destined to wreck the chances of getting a well positioned, deep trough in the eastern US. Something else too, and I have no stats to back this, but there were several notable examples of sw's that were modeled to be potent, that when within about 72 hours fizzled to just about nothing. This clipper is a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Something else too, and I have no stats to back this, but there were several notable examples of sw's that were modeled to be potent, that when within about 72 hours fizzled to just about nothing. This clipper is a good example. Yeah it does seem like we have had a lot of clipper fizzles. In a dud winter we fail every way imaginable, and pretty much every time there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it does seem like we have had a lot of clipper fizzles. In a dud winter we fail every way imaginable, and pretty much every time there is a chance. I can't remember the storm, but we had a pretty big east coast storm modeled at about 5 or 6 days completely disappear all of a sudden because a sw coming in off the pacific that looked very strong early ended up as basically nothing. I think that was about 6 weeks ago. I know I still had weatherbell so it had to have been in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 I think if you all check the digital snow thread, you will see some Euro maps in there, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 This sort of reminds me of the Vodka Cold predictions from 2002 that never even came close to verifying (of course, I was very young back then and only watched TWC, didn't know who JB was, but I heard a lot about what he said afterwards). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Fozz said: This sort of reminds me of the Vodka Cold predictions from 2002 that never even came close to verifying (of course, I was very young back then and only watched TWC, didn't know who JB was, but I heard a lot about what he said afterwards). Fun times. Remember the only vodka cold I saw that winter was the Smirnoff in my Bloody Marys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 GFS ops have been all over the place so this run really doesn't mean much but it does get a touch interesting, now repeat after me, after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS ops have been all over the place so this run really doesn't mean much but it does get a touch interesting, now repeat after me, after day 10. its fun to click back through the op runs for the past 5 or 6 days...just at h5 height anomly...its like being on one of those pirate ship rides the swing like a pendulum...the Buccaneer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS ops have been all over the place so this run really doesn't mean much but it does get a touch interesting, now repeat after me, after day 10. Still hinting that we might not want to give up on March 13th window quite yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I can't remember the storm, but we had a pretty big east coast storm modeled at about 5 or 6 days completely disappear all of a sudden because a sw coming in off the pacific that looked very strong early ended up as basically nothing. I think that was about 6 weeks ago. I know I still had weatherbell so it had to have been in January. The Jan 7th southern slider ultimately evolved from something like that. Not sure if that is what you are thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: The Jan 7th southern slider ultimately evolved from something like that. Not sure if that is what you are thinking of. No, I'm pretty sure that it was near the end of January. I may look back through the threads and see if I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Still hinting that we might not want to give up on March 13th window quite yet lol. Did you see the setup at day 16? That's just a minor adjustment or two from being the fluke we keep talking about. If nothing else, the GFS has been good for some sh*ts and giggles these last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Still hinting that we might not want to give up on March 13th window quite yet lol. I'm a snow zombie 20x over already. What's one more fail to track. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Did you see the setup at day 16? That's just a minor adjustment or two from being the fluke we keep talking about. If nothing else, the GFS has been good for some sh*ts and giggles these last few days. Yeah I saw it lol. Our luck will change with a St Patty's day snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The Jan 7th southern slider ultimately evolved from something like that. Not sure if that is what you are thinking of. You were right. Wow, had no idea it was that far back. The potent shortwave that was going to give us a whopper of a storm got shredded by the black hole of death behind it and the weak energy that was left took too long to amplify for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 I am sure glad I did not start an snowplow business this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: I am sure glad I did not start an snowplow business this year That's why you go in business as a lawn/landscaping/plowing business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Still hinting that we might not want to give up on March 13th window quite yet lol. 12z Euro hinting even more. Tries to get it done with the blocking up top, vortex underneath, and digs a trough pretty deep this run. Just beyond day 10 looks kinda interesting, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z Euro hinting even more. Tries to get it done with the blocking up top, vortex underneath, and digs a trough pretty deep this run. Just beyond day 10 looks kinda interesting, lol Just what I want, and nother 2 weeks of close but no cigar. Can we waste another Greenland Block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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