Scraff Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Still mostly just TV snow. If you go to pivotalweather and look at snow depth... there is not much on the ground Snow TV better than no TV. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 26 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Still mostly just TV snow. If you go to pivotalweather and look at snow depth... there is not much on the ground Somewhere in the area could see a half inch or so before rapid melting. Thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 36 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Still mostly just TV snow. If you go to pivotalweather and look at snow depth... there is not much on the ground At sea level I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Hope the models keep trending south because you know in the last 24 it will start coming back north. Just a couple of days ago it was a southern NE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4km has a nice vort pass. Came way south from 12z. So there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Officially a half inch or less in the forecast here. woohoo! So stoked.(not) Just seeing flakes flying would be cool tho after the debacle of a February we just had. I was high on this clipper a few days ago- thought it might be a decent little event and kick off what(at the time) looked to be a good period. Appears to have all but vanished lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 Gfs doesn't want to cave wrt it's long range ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs doesn't want to cave wrt it's long range ideas. Another weenie run. At least when you compare it to what we have dealt with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 GFS 18z holds it's ground. This split will go on for another 4 or 5 runs before it inevitable caves. THE gfs breaks down the Aleutian ridge and uses it to form a PNA ridge, the Euro keeps this intact and in place. Canadian does something similar but the ridge cuts off much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs doesn't want to cave wrt it's long range ideas. Yup it looks similar to 12z. 18z GEFS looks nice as well. EPS needs to get wth the program- save our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yup it looks similar to 12z. 18z GEFS looks nice as well. EPS needs to get wth the program- save our winter. Should start #saveourwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, attml said: At least we have reason to check the NAM tonight..haven't had that in weeks...it's the tracking I enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I'm inclined to side with the euro here and I also pointed out the ggem supports the euro but I also don't want to give too much legitimacy to a piece of guidance with absolutely atrocious verification scores. I'm not sure if you're talking about the GGEM or GEPS here, but I'm wouldn't call either one atrocious. Fwiw, the GGEM has recently been posting better day-10 verification scores than the GFS. The GEFS and GEPS will go back and forth, but on average the GEPS does pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, cae said: I'm not sure if you're talking about the GGEM or GEPS here, but I'm wouldn't call either one atrocious. Fwiw, the GGEM has recently been posting better day-10 verification scores than the GFS. The GEFS and GEPS will go back and forth, but on average the GEPS does pretty well. Would need to check source. I know I saw the h5 verification scores for the last 90 days about a month ago and the gfs unmet and ecmwf were running close 1-2-3 with ggem and others a very distant 4th. Haven't seen since as I got a new phone and lost the bookmark. If anyone has them please post link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 I'm no expert but the clipper looks anemic on the NAM. Who would have guessed that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Cansips new run out today for March. It's been right all season soooo.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017030100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Cansips new run out today for March. It's been right all season soooo.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017030100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 But next February is gunna' rock! Just ignore surface maps. Lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017030100&fh=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I'm no expert but the clipper looks anemic on the NAM. Who would have guessed that? Narrow band of an inch or two. Edit: It essentially caved in with the track of the low. But what'd you expect from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 An inch would be more snow than I've had all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Would need to check source. I know I saw the h5 verification scores for the last 90 days about a month ago and the gfs unmet and ecmwf were running close 1-2-3 with ggem and others a very distant 4th. Haven't seen since as I got a new phone and lost the bookmark. If anyone has them please post link. Was it this chart? You can see that in recent years there has been a clear seasonal trend to the GGEM-GFS difference, with the GGEM closing the gap in the winter and in some seasons (like last year) slightly outperforming the GFS on average. It's clearly the #4 global, but I wouldn't call its wintertime verification scores atrocious. For something more relevant to the comment that sparked this thread, here are the day-10 verification scores for the op runs for H5 anomalies over North America over the last month. Of course none of them are very good, but the GGEM's scores aren't that bad relative to the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 4km looks less than good as well. happy hour is over better call uber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 4km looks less than good as well. happy hour is over better call uber Downsloping assassinates everything on this run including flurries. Seasonal trend!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, winterymix said: Downsloping assassinates everything on this run including flurries. Seasonal trend!!!!!!!!!! True. But it started out quite weak in the Northern plains. It was evident early in the run. I'm sure 18z NAM was just being the NAM. The unpredictable drunk buddy whom you love to hang out with but usually gets you in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 54 minutes ago, cae said: Was it this chart? You can see that in recent years there has been a clear seasonal trend to the GGEM-GFS difference, with the GGEM closing the gap in the winter and in some seasons (like last year) slightly outperforming the GFS on average. It's clearly the #4 global, but I wouldn't call its wintertime verification scores atrocious. For something more relevant to the comment that sparked this thread, here are the day-10 verification scores for the op runs for H5 anomalies over North America over the last month. Of course none of them are very good, but the GGEM's scores aren't that bad relative to the others. If you zoo in on the chart showing difference with gfs the most recent scores at the end of 2016 are pretty bad compared. I think I saw a 90 day chart about a month ago so that would have been November through January. Makes sense if the ggem was doing so poorly the end of 2016 that what I saw was the way it was. It does look like there were some windows before then that the ggem was doing reasonably well. I know it's been the model that teased with fake snow the most this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2017 Author Share Posted March 2, 2017 Lol there isn't even really a clipper anymore. It washes out. Can't even get that to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol there isn't even really a clipper anymore. It washes out. Can't even get that to work out. Woo buddy...this is certainly one for the books, lol When you can't even get a clipper! I think we should make a winter 2016-17 "post-mortem" thread to talk about what exactly contributed to what we've seen this winter (so that perhaps next time we can have a clue if we start seeing the same signs at the beginning of winter!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 No way to spin it, the overnight run of the GEFS was a flat out bad run that took a bulldozer to our hopes for seeing snow. Pulls the PV feature that was rotating through north of the lakes (roughly day 7) farther north which has flattened the corresponding trough and pulled it farther north as well. The cold anomalies @ 850mb that we see in previous runs through this time period for our region take a severe hit as well. So what slim hopes we had for the 2/3 day time period immediately following this PV feature have been for the most part squashed. And the time period after this (10 day+) only gets worse. Flow across the CONUS becomes flat, zonal and withdraws to the north as the PV retreats to the arctic circle. For the most part any cold available gets locked into Canada. Maybe someone else can see a positive in this run but I sure can't. If this were to verify I think we could pretty much put a fork in winter barring some extreme fluke down the road. Only one run though and with the op runs all over the board the last couple of days you never know. As far as the EPS? Nothings changed in that regard. Hasn't had a good look for snow chances and it still doesn't. Still keeps a trough in the gulf of Alaska down into the northwest for almost the entire run. Still doesn't like the time period when the PV swings through north of the lakes. And day 10+, has for the most part a zonal flow though not as flat as the GEFS. All and all not a good look and yet I think I might like my chances with the EPS over the GEFS at this point. Side note: For the last day or two I have had singing in my ears. Can't quite figure out what is causing it. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: No way to spin it, the overnight run of the GEFS was a flat out bad run that took a bulldozer to our hopes for seeing snow. Pulls the PV feature that was rotating through north of the lakes (roughly day 7) farther north which has flattened the corresponding trough and pulled it farther north as well. The cold anomalies @ 850mb that we see in previous runs through this time period for our region take a severe hit as well. So what slim hopes we had for the 2/3 day time period immediately following this PV feature have been for the most part squashed. And the time period after this (10 day+) only gets worse. Flow across the CONUS becomes flat, zonal and withdraws to the north as the PV retreats to the arctic circle. For the most part any cold available gets locked into Canada. Maybe someone else can see a positive in this run but I sure can't. If this were to verify I think we could pretty much put a fork in winter barring some extreme fluke down the road. Only one run though and with the op runs all over the board the last couple of days you never know. As far as the EPS? Nothings changed in that regard. Hasn't had a good look for snow chances and it still doesn't. Still keeps a trough in the gulf of Alaska down into the northwest for almost the entire run. Still doesn't like the time period when the PV swings through north of the lakes. And day 10+, has for the most part a zonal flow though not as flat as the GEFS. All and all not a good look and yet I think I might like my chances with the EPS over the GEFS at this point. We knew it was coming. GFS/GEFS has quickly caved to the Euro. EPS has been consistent for many runs not getting it done with building enough blocking/ getting that piece of the PV far enough underneath(although the 0z op tried). The bad pacific rules the pattern. Pretty close to throw in the towel time. And as PSU posted, what clipper? Turns out the Euro, and especially the CMC, were correct on that. GFS and NAM have been struggling lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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