showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I agree. The geps would side with the EPS also. Even a compromise wouldn't really be good so we're not in great shape but I suppose as long as one major piece of guidance is still showing a decent pattern we still have a shot. It's just a low probability. And I guess this whole conversation is where I don't get the problem. We all acknowledge the lack of consensus in the guidance and that the gefs is likely wrong. But that doesn't mean it's a problem to even bring it up or discuss the variables and options. It's not a forecast we're just having a discussion. Looked into the longer range (10+ day) a little as well. One thing I did notice somewhat was that the EPS seemed to have sharper more distinct features then the the GEFS which seemed a little fuzzy and washed out looking. My take away from that was that the EPS probably had better consensus between its members then the GEFS. Hadn't looked at the individual members so maybe they tell a different story. So if my reasoning holds water, that there is more member support for the EPS solution, and knowing the tendencies of this winter that CAPE reminded us of, I think I would probably side on the EPS being more right then the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Is that a serious inquiry? Lol Last chance of the year to get over .5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Not sure where to put this and not sure if it is really considered thread worthy yet. But in the shorter range the NAM has come in farther south with Fridays possible clipper. Runs the surface low along the Mason Dixon line now. Sweet spot for snow has shifted accordingly with it now being shown in a strip running through central PA vs. the earlier run which had it running in northern PA. Just another 100 mile shift south would get northern MD into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: There is no problem. One person complained about literally nothing, and for no reason, and then continued to dig the hole. I haven't been in banter since yesterday, but hopefully he stopped digging and moved on from his self created mini debacle. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not sure where to put this and not sure if it is really considered thread worthy yet. But in the shorter range the NAM has come in farther south with Fridays possible clipper. Runs the surface low along the Mason Dixon line now. Sweet spot for snow has shifted accordingly with it now being shown in a strip running through central PA vs. the earlier run which had it running in northern PA. Just another 100 mile shift south would get northern MD into play. It wont matter much what the track is if its as weak as the Euro and CMC would suggest. Still some fairly remarkable disagreement considering how close we are to the "event". eta- RGEM looks paltry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I'm surprised no mention of the 3k nam. Tracks the low basically right over DC with a very small but fairly intense band of snow just north of it. It's the epitome of an I-70 special. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: For what it's worth, that was just one guy, and no one agrees with him. Please, all, continue to post as you normally do in this thread. How are these comments not banter? I want to put the discussion behind us, but this is what prevents that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Don't be surprised when you wake up to snow on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don't be surprised when you wake up to TV snow on Friday. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm surprised no mention of the 3k nam. Tracks the low basically right over DC with a very small but fairly intense band of snow just north of it. It's the epitome of an I-70 special. lol The GFS shifted the band south as well... not nearly the same amount of snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don't be surprised when you wake up to snow on Friday. This will overperform. Or it will keep trending better, raise expectations, then underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 29 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Fixed If you live at sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 GFS moves precip in around sunrise so timing is decent. If slp tracks south it would keep the surface colder during precip as well but any impact would be dependent on the surface getting below freezing before onset. Climo favored areas may actually pick up some accums. Could be the biggest event of the year for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS moves precip in around sunrise so timing is decent. If slp tracks south it would keep the surface colder during precip as well but any impact would be dependent on the surface getting below freezing before onset. Climo favored areas may actually pick up some accums. Could be the biggest event of the year for somebody. I expect 1-3" with isolated 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 There seems to be some small bit of clarity emerging regarding any possible threats in the coming pattern. Others have covered the Friday clipper and I am not going to analyze a clipper too much...it is what it is and they have such a small area of coverage and move around so much its just not worth it. But after that there seem to be 2 possible ways we could get something. Both are very low probability so we are simply discussing chances not anything likely. The first would be around March 9/10th. A system seems to be showing up on the guidance that rides along the boundary set up by the trough sliding under the block around that time. One key is going to be how the energy is handled between the northern and southern stream. The GFS wants to key on the northern steam system and takes that north of us and the STJ energy stays south. That sounds familiar and is probably how this goes. The GGEM wants to key on the southern system and develops a threat. Surface is a bit warm but it was close to a snowstorm. The next "chance" would be around the 12-13th. The GFS and most ensembles try to eject something from the west around the 11th but right now most of the guidance is squashing it and washing it out as it runs into the lower heights in the northeast. But if that relaxes a bit something could hold together and there seems to be enough cold around at that time to make it interesting. A lot of "if's' in there though. But that would be the next (last?) threat in the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: How are these comments not banter? I want to put the discussion behind us, but this is what prevents that. Try to have a sense of humor about things. At times people poke fun at me for my propensity to worry needlessly about the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There seems to be some small bit of clarity emerging regarding any possible threats in the coming pattern. Others have covered the Friday clipper and I am not going to analyze a clipper too much...it is what it is and they have such a small area of coverage and move around so much its just not worth it. But after that there seem to be 2 possible ways we could get something. Both are very low probability so we are simply discussing chances not anything likely. The first would be around March 9/10th. A system seems to be showing up on the guidance that rides along the boundary set up by the trough sliding under the block around that time. One key is going to be how the energy is handled between the northern and southern stream. The GFS wants to key on the northern steam system and takes that north of us and the STJ energy stays south. That sounds familiar and is probably how this goes. The GGEM wants to key on the southern system and develops a threat. Surface is a bit warm but it was close to a snowstorm. The next "chance" would be around the 12-13th. The GFS and most ensembles try to eject something from the west around the 11th but right now most of the guidance is squashing it and washing it out as it runs into the lower heights in the northeast. But if that relaxes a bit something could hold together and there seems to be enough cold around at that time to make it interesting. A lot of "if's' in there though. But that would be the next (last?) threat in the window. The general way h5 evolves on the GFS once again shows how we could get a favorable pattern and window. Builds a strong NA block westward and pinches off a lobe of the PV underneath and we end up(this run) getting a nice PNA ridge and a broad eastern trough thats positioned well...not too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Really need to see some improvement on the Euro/EPS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 PSU- That is a pretty sweet look around March 12. Too bad it will be gone in a run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The general way h5 evolves on the GFS once again shows how we could get a favorable pattern and window. Builds a strong NA block westward and pinches off a lobe of the PV underneath and we end up(this run) getting a nice PNA ridge and a broad eastern trough thats positioned well...not too far east. Now that is what I want to see with that PV lobe. Lock it in for almost a week in southern Canada. I will take my chances with that as it rotates around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Try to have a sense of humor about things. At times people poke fun at me for my propensity to worry needlessly about the northern fringe. I don't find anything funny that was posted over the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Now that is what I want to see with that PV lobe. Lock it in for almost a week in southern Canada. I will take my chances with that as it rotates around Yeah this sort of evolution is close to a best case for giving us a legit window in this pattern. The EPac even gets briefly favorable, or at least non hostile lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Really need to see some improvement on the Euro/EPS today. So do I... For Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So do I... For Friday That too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I don't find anything funny that was posted over the last week. So whats your take on the advertised h5 pattern on the 12z GFS @ 240 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah this sort of evolution is close to a best case for giving us a legit window in this pattern. The EPac even gets briefly favorable, or at least non hostile lol. This setup would far exceed my wildest hopes of seeing that pinched off PV getting locked if for a couple days. Instead of a 2/3 day window we would probably see a window almost through to day 15. Of course it takes more then having the PV planted there to score but it sure would up the odds a good deal. But alas, we are talking an op run at range with a model where the op runs haven't been exactly the model of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The general way h5 evolves on the GFS once again shows how we could get a favorable pattern and window. Builds a strong NA block westward and pinches off a lobe of the PV underneath and we end up(this run) getting a nice PNA ridge and a broad eastern trough thats positioned well...not too far east. The main difference between the GEFS and EPS is how they handle the western PV/Trough. The euro wants to crash that down into the Pacific northwest and then bully and push everything else to the east. The GFS products want to hang that back just enough that combined with the shorter wavelengths in March could allow things to buckle under the blocking in the east. It's one feature but its a pretty significant feature. Problem is seasonal persistence argues for the Euro progression. And even a compromise would be not so good. But past results are not ALWAYS indicative of future outcomes. The time of year is different and its possible (although very unlikely) this time could be different. I agree seeing some movement towards the American version of the story today by the EPS would be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2017 Author Share Posted March 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I don't find anything funny that was posted over the last week. hence why I said "TRY to have a sense of humor" sometimes that can also mean just not taking something too seriously when others are having a little harmless fun at your expense and you can't see the humor in it. We have all been there before. I have learned to relax and let it go. Life is too short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: hence why I said "TRY to have a sense of humor" sometimes that can also mean just not taking something too seriously when others are having a little harmless fun at your expense and you can't see the humor in it. We have all been there before. I have learned to relax and let it go. Life is too short. GEFS says you might need to start worrying about getting fringed on the Friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The main difference between the GEFS and EPS is how they handle the western PV/Trough. The euro wants to crash that down into the Pacific northwest and then bully and push everything else to the east. The GFS products want to hang that back just enough that combined with the shorter wavelengths in March could allow things to buckle under the blocking in the east. It's one feature but its a pretty significant feature. Problem is seasonal persistence argues for the Euro progression. And even a compromise would be not so good. But past results are not ALWAYS indicative of future outcomes. The time of year is different and its possible (although very unlikely) this time could be different. I agree seeing some movement towards the American version of the story today by the EPS would be a good sign. Yeah as we were discussing this morning. It certainly should favor the Euro idea. Maybe we get lucky this one time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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