March medium/long range disco

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Euro was interesting @ 500mb. I would discuss the possibilities I see of the potential evolution of the pattern where we see a winters worth of snow (crap, that was a weenieism. mods please delete) but that would not be appropriate. So I won't. Thought about posting some surface and 500mb maps and diagramming it out but damned if I know if they are too long range or not. Snowfall map is definitely out though it would have been handy in getting one point across. Not sure what I can post.

But anyway, the Euro was very interesting.

Note to modes: After rereading my post I find that it is probably more banter then anything else and that's a no-no. So feel free to delete or to move to banter. After all we need tight controls on these all important long range discussion threads.

I dont think there is a single thing I like about how h5 evolves over the next 15 days verbatim looking at the EPS. Unless of course a couple of chilly dry days is the goal.

We need a red tagger in here stat!

 

eta- I mean I really love that beautiful GL ridge (those pretty red and magenta colors) and that 50-50 low sitting there locked underneath at day 15. But then I look towards the west....

Lets extrapolate! 

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wonder how much more fun we can squeeze out of this. 

Can we run it for Xmas eve?  I am already wondering what our chances are.

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Can we run it for Xmas eve?  I am already wondering what our chances are.

Not in range yet. I'll post it in 2 months. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not in range yet. I'll post it in 2 months. 

Excuse me Bob, but it will be in range in 51 days.  

I'll expect it then.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Excuse me Bob, but it will be in range in 51 days.  

I'll expect it then.

Lol- no problem. Extrapolation range in 45. Done. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Wonder how much more fun we can squeeze out of this. 

I'm just getting started. 

[dallen7908]

Never mind I was looking at an old model run. 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

18Z GFS actually is close to what I envisioned the pattern could possibly evolve into that would give us a shot. Plants part of the PV above the lakes and locks it in for a several days giving some time for a piece of NS energy to rotate around it and then amplify when it starts riding up the front side of the trough. We can see this around day nine as the energy hits the coast and then intensifies. In this case the trough is not quite deep enough and a little to broad so we see the energy begin to amplify a little to far north and swing out to sea before beginning its move up the coast.. This is pretty much the reason I stressed the importance of seeing that trough deepen as much as possible so that we could hopefully see intensification occur to our south as well as sharpen as much as possible so that we would see the low come straight up the coast without any deviations out to sea first. Another important aspect that I have mentioned before is that we need to stay on that front side of the trough so that we would be in position to benefit from the intensification otherwise if we are sitting on the back side we would be looking at cold and dry as all the action occurred to our east.

Only an op run so take it for what it is worth, which isn't much at this point, but it does show that maybe, just maybe, not all hope is lost in that period of time.

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

18Z GFS actually is close to what I envisioned the pattern could possibly evolve into that would give us a shot. Plants part of the PV above the lakes and locks it in for a several days giving some time for a piece of NS energy to rotate around it and then amplify when it starts riding up the front side of the trough. We can see this around day nine as the energy hits the coast and then intensifies. In this case the trough is not quite deep enough and a little to broad so we see the energy begin to amplify a little to far north and swing out to sea before beginning its move up the coast.. This is pretty much the reason I stressed the importance of seeing that trough deepen as much as possible so that we could hopefully see intensification occur to our south as well as sharpen as much as possible so that we would see the low come straight up the coast without any deviations out to sea first. Another important aspect that I have mentioned before is that we need to stay on that front side of the trough so that we would be in position to benefit from the intensification otherwise if we are sitting on the back side we would be looking at cold and dry as all the action occurred to our east.

Only an op run so take it for what it is worth, which isn't much at this point, but it does show that maybe, just maybe, not all hope is lost in that period of time.

I guess there is a brief window around the 10th. It is an op run, and there have been many run to run variations wrt the PV lobes. All transient though, and mostly not enough dig. This run it does dig a bit more.

Still gotta love the 384 hour map with that massive GL block and vortex(50-50ish) yet the whole country is basically flooded with mild pacific air lol. We just cannot shake the damn AK vortex. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

18Z GFS actually is close to what I envisioned the pattern could possibly evolve into that would give us a shot. Plants part of the PV above the lakes and locks it in for a several days giving some time for a piece of NS energy to rotate around it and then amplify when it starts riding up the front side of the trough. We can see this around day nine as the energy hits the coast and then intensifies. In this case the trough is not quite deep enough and a little to broad so we see the energy begin to amplify a little to far north and swing out to sea before beginning its move up the coast.. This is pretty much the reason I stressed the importance of seeing that trough deepen as much as possible so that we could hopefully see intensification occur to our south as well as sharpen as much as possible so that we would see the low come straight up the coast without any deviations out to sea first. Another important aspect that I have mentioned before is that we need to stay on that front side of the trough so that we would be in position to benefit from the intensification otherwise if we are sitting on the back side we would be looking at cold and dry as all the action occurred to our east.

Only an op run so take it for what it is worth, which isn't much at this point, but it does show that maybe, just maybe, not all hope is lost in that period of time.

A very small minority of ensemble runs still do this. There were a couple crazy snow bombs on the gefs and EPS. So that idea is still hidden within the noise of possible outcomes but it's an extreme long shot. 

[psuhoffman]

18z gefs was an improvement day 8-16. Not worth more analysis then that at this point.   

(There no maps)

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A very small minority of ensemble runs still do this. There were a couple crazy snow bombs on the gefs and EPS. So that idea is still hidden within the noise of possible outcomes but it's an extreme long shot. 

Yea, some decent enemble solutions are sprinkled into the 10th-12th timeframe the last couple days. I keep hoping to see more consensus as we get closer but not looking too good so far. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z gefs was an improvement day 8-16. Not worth more analysis then that at this point.   

(There no maps)

lol give me maps!

An improvement at h5 for sure. Oddly if you look at the snowfall mean, 12z was much better, and the best run in a while. Must have been skewed by some biggies among the members. Not important enough for me to go look lol.

[pasnownut]

I thank you guys for keeping hope alive. I've sorta checked out but still lurk to see if y'all can drum one up before shades close fr good.   Keep up the good work.  

Nut 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lol give me maps!

An improvement at h5 for sure. Oddly if you look at the snowfall mean, 12z was much better, and the best run in a while. Must have been skewed by some biggies among the members. Not important enough for me to go look lol.

Yea 12z was skewed by one member that had a 20-30" storm. 

[Interstate]

Who starts the storm thread for Friday?

[Jebman]

I STILL insist we WILL get snow in March!

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

6 hours ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Who starts the storm thread for Friday?

Is that a serious inquiry? Lol

[showmethesnow]

Started to do a long write up with some maps to show what we were dealing with and why when it came to the day 7 -10 period when we see the pv feature drop into the lakes. But BLAH, decided I didn't want to waste the time on something that has very long odds and I am sure some of you didn't want to read about how we would fail once again.

Long story short then. EPS has more pronounced trough running down off the northwest coast then the GEFS. The downstream implications are what are impacting our chances through the 7-10 day period.

So, in a nut shell, Eps says 'Move along, nothing to see here'. GEFS says 'keep hope alive'.

I will also mention that the GEFS keeps the trough in the east extending our chances into day 14. EPS has a somewhat ambiguous look in the longer range, so maybe, maybe not. Outside of day 10, so i am kind of indifferent at this point.

Side note: This Friday keeps inching south. Northern MD maybe coming into play for some slushy accumulations? 

[attml]

[showmethesnow]

18 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is a nice resource for those who want to read up on pattern drivers/teleconnections, etc.  This is specifically a synoptic discussion, basically a "post mortem" for January. Pretty good stuff.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/synoptic/201701

Only had a chance to glance over it so far but it looks to be a good read. Maybe will spend some time later today to read it in more depth.

[psuhoffman]

The trend on the gefs is actually a very good one. Below are the last 4 runs for the same time. I first noticed this trend 18z yesterday and each run since has nudged towards the idea of diving a second vort into the east behind the initial day 8 trough that mostly slides by to our north.  That's what I've said for a while was the most realistic way to win. The day 7/8 trough isn't a threat because it has so much ridging in front of it that and storm that develops on the front of that h5 height fall is going to be warm. Even when that was digging to China it wasn't going to help us we still would have needed a second vort to rotate into the trough and if anything those crazy deep trough solutions would have just suppressed that. 

The problem is the EPS is going the other way. Just reverse the order of the images and that's about what the EPS is doing. A little odd not that they aren't in agreement but they are diverging as we get closer. The gefs has won a few battles this year so I'm not saying it's a lock that the EPS isn't on crack here but most of the time when those two are at odds a compromise solution ends up closer to truth. A compromise here doesn't do us much good. We need a gefs win and then some luck. We're kinda down 8, own 20 yard line with 30 seconds left and no timeouts here. Even if we get the miracle drive (gefs) we still need the 2 point conversion (even the gefs doesn't guarantee snow just gives us a chance)

I now stand ready for crucifiction for the high crimes of long range analysis and map posting.  

[CAPE]

Was looking at that earlier PSU. Last few runs of the EPS are going the other way. I guess the reason I am inclined to believe it more is that it works its way to back to the familiar western trough/eastern ridge look. Hard to argue that one this winter.

eta- and zero in the NA blocking dept beyond day 12

[dallen7908]

Kind of pathetic that it is comforting to see an hour 246 map posted - getting pretty used to the good look at day-16 byline

[BristowWx]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The trend on the gefs is actually a very good one. Below are the last 4 runs for the same time. I first noticed this trend 18z yesterday and each run since has nudged towards the idea of diving a second vort into the east behind the initial day 8 trough that mostly slides by to our north.  That's what I've said for a while was the most realistic way to win. The day 7/8 trough isn't a threat because it has so much ridging in front of it that and storm that develops on the front of that h5 height fall is going to be warm. Even when that was digging to China it wasn't going to help us we still would have needed a second vort to rotate into the trough and if anything those crazy deep trough solutions would have just suppressed that. 

The problem is the EPS is going the other way. Just reverse the order of the images and that's about what the EPS is doing. A little odd not that they aren't in agreement but they are diverging as we get closer. The gefs has won a few battles this year so I'm not saying it's a lock that the EPS isn't on crack here but most of the time when those two are at odds a compromise solution ends up closer to truth. A compromise here doesn't do us much good. We need a gefs win and then some luck. We're kinda down 8, own 20 yard line with 30 seconds left and no timeouts here. Even if we get the miracle drive (gefs) we still need the 2 point conversion (even the gefs doesn't guarantee snow just gives us a chance)

I now stand ready for crucifiction for the high crimes of long range analysis and map posting.  

Thanks for posting.  All we have left is hope and miracles so if this doesn't happen it won't matter.  Even if you don't catch any fish, fishing is still fun and repeated failure doesn't mean you stop fishing but just buy more beer!

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Was looking at that earlier PSU. Last few runs of the EPS are going the other way. I guess the reason I am inclined to believe it more is that it works its way to back to the familiar western trough/eastern ridge look. Hard to argue that one this winter.

Yea I agree. The geps would side with the EPS also. Even a compromise wouldn't really be good so we're not in great shape but I suppose as long as one major piece of guidance is still showing a decent pattern we still have a shot. It's just a low probability. 

And I guess this whole conversation is where I don't get the problem.  We all acknowledge the lack of consensus in the guidance and that the gefs is likely wrong. But that doesn't mean it's a problem to even bring it up or discuss the variables and options. It's not a forecast we're just having a discussion. 

[North Balti Zen]

For what it's worth, that was just one guy, and no one agrees with him. Please, all, continue to post as you normally do in this thread.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Kind of pathetic that it is comforting to see an hour 246 map posted - getting pretty used to the good look at day-16 byline

It is moving closer in time. The day 9-12 threat period was what was producing some hits day 14-16 a few days ago on the op gfs.  That said we have moved threats into the day 10 range before then they usually fall apart around day 8 never to return. So the next 48 hours are pretty key. We're getting to the range where the "better look" you speak of usually disintegrates. Oddly the gefs is trending better but everything else says no and as we know the gefs could fall apart in just one run as it has several times this year. I am fully prepared to see the gefs pull the rug out one last time here but I'll track it just in case we get pleasantly surprised this time. Of course the ultimate fail would be to get a great trend and be on the brink of a huge storm where every model shows 1-2 feet 24 hours out then it pulls a march 2001 on us. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

For what it's worth, that was just one guy, and no one agrees with him. Please, all, continue to post as you normally do in this thread.

I know and I think bob and others do too we're just squeezing some fun out of it. Kinda like we did with that Carbondale guy. Hopefully it's all in good fun. I've been the but of the joke sometimes, (the fringe thing) and it's good to have a sense of humor and roll with it. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I agree. The geps would side with the EPS also. Even a compromise wouldn't really be good so we're not in great shape but I suppose as long as one major piece of guidance is still showing a decent pattern we still have a shot. It's just a low probability. 

And I guess this whole conversation is where I don't get the problem.  We all acknowledge the lack of consensus in the guidance and that the gefs is likely wrong. But that doesn't mean it's a problem to even bring it up or discuss the variables and options. It's not a forecast we're just having a discussion. 

There is no problem. One person complained about literally nothing, and for no reason, and then continued to dig the hole. I haven't been in banter since yesterday, but hopefully he stopped digging and moved on from his self created mini debacle.