March medium/long range disco

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The look on the GEFS continues to deteriorate. Trough does not dig into the east as it did on previous runs and is now broad and flat. Though you couldn't completely rule out getting some northern stream energy underneath us the look probably argues against it. Even if we could get some energy underneath and if temps would cooperate think the best upside at this point would be of an inch or possibly two. Still time to right the ship but at this point it is looking pretty bleak. Hopefully the 00Z suite at least stops the bleeding.

I gotta tell you, I'm shocked.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I like your post better then mine it had a much better spin then mine. You convinced me. I'm back in. 

You Have no choice. Blaze of glory

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The look on the GEFS continues to deteriorate. Trough does not dig into the east as it did on previous runs and is now broad and flat. Though you couldn't completely rule out getting some northern stream energy underneath us the look probably argues against it. Even if we could get some energy underneath and if temps would cooperate think the best upside at this point would be of an inch or possibly two. Still time to right the ship but at this point it is looking pretty bleak. Hopefully the 00Z suite at least stops the bleeding.

 

15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Past day 12 looks like lower hieghts replace higher hieghts in the east though.

 

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

But but that nasty NA block towards the end! only 15 days away!

Oh and the snowfall mean has increased quite a bit on the 18z GEFS

 

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I like your post better then mine it had a much better spin. You convinced me. I'm back in. 

The 18z gefs is a significant improvement and the way it handles day 10-15 is the reason. At this point here it doesn't look great. The initial trough into the east is flatter and the subsequent 50/50 weaker. 

but the western trough is out of the way and so that energy diving down the back is able to pinwheel down and amplify into the east. So this happens as the Atlantic pattern breaks down (classic timing)

thats where we want to see the lower heights to our southwest. When I saw that I knew the snow mean would jump because there had to be several nice coastal storms to get that h5 mean.  And sure enough...

this was the solution we want to see. We don't need some purple paint bomb over us honestly. Getting the western trough to hold back enough to allow some vort to dig into the east and amplify is more important. This was how the gfs ops had good runs yesterday. But that said this was one run. I'm not getting excited at all. But if this becomes a trend then maybe we have a shot. 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You Have no choice. Blaze of glory

No point jumping now. I'm going down with the ship. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

No point jumping now. I'm going down with the ship. 

Dude you are the captain. Or pilot. I think we did the plane analogy in banter.

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Dude you are the captain. Or pilot. I think we did the plane analogy in banter.

Lol. I'm not going to pretend this winter hasn't been frustrating and I'm not happy with how it turned out. But we had some good discussions and some fun at times. I get a kick out of the panic thread. We got to gang up on that idiot from Carbondale. I had what's almost becoming a traditional back and forth with Mitch (he got the better of me this year) and we found out government workers are all lazy. And in between all that I feel I learned a little more and grew from the experience so it was worth it. You all make it fun even in failure. 

[Bob Chill]

Early thoughts for 17-18 winter....colder and snowier than 16-17. AO will be less positive too. 

[Amped]

[midatlanticweather]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Early thoughts for 17-18 winter....colder and snowier than 16-17. AO will be less positive too. 

If I were a betting man...  That would be a very safe bet!

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Early thoughts for 17-18 winter....colder and snowier than 16-17. AO will be less positive too. 

Ignore the east based enso development why don't we.

[attml]

Ok, I am all in :-)

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BTRWx said:

Ignore the east based enso development why don't we.

Lol even if DC finished +3 with 5" of snow December to February he would verify.  Even if the enso stays east based how many Ninos other then the super ninos of 73 & 98 produces worse then that?  Since I highly doubt we're getting another super nino his bet seems safe. And that's assuming it stays east based some of the sst models shift it towards a modoki by next winter. 

[showmethesnow]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

 

The 18z gefs is a significant improvement and the way it handles day 10-15 is the reason. At this point here it doesn't look great. The initial trough into the east is flatter and the subsequent 50/50 weaker. 

but the western trough is out of the way and so that energy diving down the back is able to pinwheel down and amplify into the east. So this happens as the Atlantic pattern breaks down (classic timing)

thats where we want to see the lower heights to our southwest. When I saw that I knew the snow mean would jump because there had to be several nice coastal storms to get that h5 mean.  And sure enough...

this was the solution we want to see. We don't need some purple paint bomb over us honestly. Getting the western trough to hold back enough to allow some vort to dig into the east and amplify is more important. This was how the gfs ops had good runs yesterday. But that said this was one run. I'm not getting excited at all. But if this becomes a trend then maybe we have a shot. 

To be honest with you when I consider the time of year, where what is remaining of winter can be counted in days not weeks, my focus has for the most part shifted to inside of 10 days. So short of seeing a highly anomalous setup, a 93 redux or something comparable, that is where my focus will stay.  And lets face it, Day 10+ has been a Fantasy land this winter, where unicorns frolic carefree through the forest. Only to get inside of 10 days and those same unicorns are being slain by Voldermort for their blood and there is no Harry Potter to save the day. So my deterioration comment was in regards to what we see through day 10 and more specifically to the trough that sets up roughly day 8/9 and the window revolving around that.

As far as post day 10 on the 18z run? While what we see by Day 14 has a promising look, it also has that look of 'been there, done that' when I see the trough into the Gulf of Alaska and the subsequent lower heights anomalies extending all the way down to off the coast of Washington and Oregon.

[showmethesnow]

The window revolving around day 8/9 is looking like a lost cause on both the GEFS and the EPS at this point in time. Though you can never rule anything out when you have a trough in the east, the lack of dig, the placement and the evolution of the trough are not what you really want to see in regards to scoring in our region. 

On another note, the NS impulse passing through the general region day 3/4 has piqued my interest a touch. For the most part it has been flying under my radar but that feature has been slowly trending farther south as well as strengthening over the last few runs of the GEFS and the EPS. The op runs have been occasionally teasing us with this feature as well. At best we would probably be talking conversational snow in the air if rates were sufficient to overcome the surface. But who knows, if we see a continuation of the trend south maybe we can get a portion of the region on the north side of this feature where rates may allow some minimal accumulation. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The window revolving around day 8/9 is looking like a lost cause on both the GEFS and the EPS at this point in time. Though you can never rule anything out when you have a trough in the east, the lack of dig, the placement and the evolution of the trough are not what you really want to see in regards to scoring in our region. 

On another note, the NS impulse passing through the general region day 3/4 has piqued my interest a touch. For the most part it has been flying under my radar but that feature has been slowly trending farther south as well as strengthening over the last few runs of the GEFS and the EPS. The op runs have been occasionally teasing us with this feature as well. At best we would probably be talking conversational snow in the air if rates were sufficient to overcome the surface. But who knows, if we see a continuation of the trend south maybe we can get a portion of the region on the north side of this feature where rates may allow some minimal accumulation. 

0z runs were bad again. The supposed good period has basically disintegrated, but oh yeah, further down the line... there is "some" hope. Yes we have been there and done this too many times. In the end it is the same old base pattern that reemerges, and even with all the convolution and interaction between multiple blocks and vortices, during and after all the reshuffling, it appears we again will fail to realize yet another advertised "good look". Persistent Pacific wrecking ball. We all knew this was how things would end up though lol. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z runs were bad again. The supposed good period has basically disintegrated, but oh yeah, further down the line... there is "some" hope. Yes we have been there and done this too many times. In the end it is the same old base pattern that reemerges, and even with all the convolution and interaction between multiple blocks and vortices, during and after all the reshuffling, it appears we again will fail to realize yet another advertised "good look". Persistent Pacific wrecking ball. We all knew this was how things would end up though lol. 

I feel like we are in a Rocky movie. Get pummeled and knocked down, only to get right back up for more punishment. Time and again. My only hope is that we are in Rocky 2, where he wins in the end, and not the first one where all he gets is a trophy for participating.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I feel like we are in a Rocky movie. Get pummeled and knocked down, only to get right back up for more punishment. Time and again. My only hope is that we are in Rocky 2, where he wins in the end, and not the first one where all he gets is a trophy for participating.

Just 15 days away, the look on the GEFS holds some promise. As long as you can disregard that big AK trough that is still there. But it will be different this time. We will get that eastern trough under a decent block and the craptastic Pacific wont have anything to say about it. Rocky 2...or 3.

[showmethesnow]

16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Op 6z gfs already vastly different then 0z at H5...starts around hour 150 which leads to big differences past day 8 or 9. I'll still keep tracking because I don't know when to quit ...lol.

GFS op runs have been all over the place so it is hard to take the 06Z seriously but.... If it were to play out that way, with a piece of the pv rotating around southeastern Canada for almost a week, it would definitely keep my interest in tracking alive for the next 2 weeks.

[psuhoffman]

Regarding the comments about what is now the day 8/9 window. I'm not sure the that was ever a threat. Even 2 days ago when guidance had the purple ball of cold over us there was absolutely no snow signal. It was a fromt then 2-3 days of cold dry. That's why I've repeatedly said I'm bearish on snow.

 I think I'm on a different page as I always thought if we got a legit threat it would be later if the pattern could hold long enough to allow multiple vorts to rotate into the trough and help pull it southwest and dig more.  That was the only way we were seeing hits in some runs. There was never anything in the first trough the gfs was showing some hits in what would now be the day 12-14 period as the pattern matured. That seems a long shot because nothing has held long this year and the PAC wants to just bully everything east.

 My comment about the 18z was simply that it was showing what we want. Yea the day 8 trough was flat but that was never a threat anyways other then cold. It's just a stepping stone to what could be a threat a couple days later. In that regard what it does to our northeast is more important then it digging near us. Also the most important factor was how the 18z gefs held the western trough back enough to allow the next vort pinwheeling around the lobe to our northeast under the block to dig down into the east and amplify on a decent chunk of the members. Some dug too much and even missed to the south. I said I'm not buying it.  It was probably a fluke run. But that was what we want to see. I haven't had a chance to digest the overnight stuff yet, and my guess is that look is gone anyways. 

[psuhoffman]

Often I like to show what we want to happen in terms of how a pattern could POSSIBLY evolve in a favorable way.  I like to look at what could go right instead of just complaining about what's wrong. It's more fun. But that doesn't mean I think every long shot is going to produce snow.  Sometimes I get the feeling that's misunderstood and I'm not clear enough. But when I think it's likely to snow vs just possible I say so. That just hasn't happened much lately. Most of the year was spend analyzing long shots. 

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Regarding the comments about what is now the day 8/9 window. I'm not sure the that was ever a threat. Even 2 days ago when guidance had the purple ball of cold over us there was absolutely no snow signal. It was a fromt then 2-3 days of cold dry. That's why I've repeatedly said I'm bearish on snow.

 I think I'm on a different page as I always thought if we got a legit threat it would be later if the pattern could hold long enough to allow multiple vorts to rotate into the trough and help pull it southwest and dig more.  That was the only way we were seeing hits in some runs. There was never anything in the first trough the gfs was showing some hits in what would now be the day 12-14 period as the pattern matured. That seems a long shot because nothing has held long this year and the PAC wants to just bully everything east.

 My comment about the 18z was simply that it was showing what we want. Yea the day 8 trough was flat but that was never a threat anyways other then cold. It's just a stepping stone to what could be a threat a couple days later. In that regard what it does to our northeast is more important then it digging near us. Also the most important factor was how the 18z gefs held the western trough back enough to allow the next vort pinwheeling around the lobe to our northeast under the block to dig down into the east and amplify on a decent chunk of the members. Some dug too much and even missed to the south. I said I'm not buying it.  It was probably a fluke run. But that was what we want to see. I haven't had a chance to digest the overnight stuff yet, and my guess is that look is gone anyways. 

In regards to the day 8 setup. It wasn't so much the look it was presenting initially, but the look I thought the pattern could evolve into with just a few minor adjustments that I felt held a decent amount of promise. And lets face it, the models do not normally remain static at longer leads, especially this winter. I was looking for a deeper dig south of the pv into the lakes as well as a corresponding response of a deeper and sharper trough into the east. And for a day or so we were seeing the trends moving towards that idea as well as putting us on the front side of the trough. I was also hoping to see the blocking hold that pv feature in a little longer then advertised giving us a somewhat decent window to have some NS rotate around that feature and hopefully amplify. And again we saw hints for a day or so of the models moving towards that idea as well. Unfortunately these trends ended quite abruptly when it became obvious that the blocking on top of the PV in the northwest Canada was going to have the final say. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

I think at this point it is readily apparent that we will see several months of 90s before our next chance at meaningful snow.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

In regards to the day 8 setup. It wasn't so much the look it was presenting initially, but the look I thought the pattern could evolve into with just a few minor adjustments that I felt held a decent amount of promise. And lets face it, the models do not normally remain static at longer leads, especially this winter. I was looking for a deeper dig south of the pv into the lakes as well as a corresponding response of a deeper and sharper trough into the east. And for a day or so we were seeing the trends moving towards that idea as well as putting us on the front side of the trough. I was also hoping to see the blocking hold that pv feature in a little longer then advertised giving us a somewhat decent window to have some NS rotate around that feature and hopefully amplify. And again we saw hints for a day or so of the models moving towards that idea as well. Unfortunately these trends ended quite abruptly when it became obvious that the blocking on top of the PV in the northwest Canada was going to have the final say. 

Fair points. I never really had much hope in that initial lobe digging west enough to help us. It went against the normal adjustment and would buck the effects of the western block.  I thought using that as a 50/50 and getting a subsequent system to dive in to the west of it was a better and more classic way to score. But the trend has been to dampen that so much so that it may not even be of any use whatsoever now. Both the 0z and 6z backed off a bit more from the better 18z idea.  Things don't look good at all. The only bit of hope is that while not good I suppose given the blocking and longwave pattern we're close enough that a fluke threat could pop up. Looks my at all the guidance would indicate those odds to be 10% or less. I guess it's perspective. If you had a 10% chance of winning the powerball that would be great.

[clskinsfan]

53 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I think at this point it is readily apparent that we will see several months of 90s before our next chance at meaningful snow.

You may be right about the snow. But it is looking likely that we get some kind of blocking towards mid March. And that is a horrible solution IMO. The blocking comes right on time for 33 and rain throughout March.

[RevWarReenactor]

It feels like we've been tracking snowstorms and potential pattern changes 10-15 days out since the start of winter. If you were on here Feb 15th, Feb 25th looked pretty good, and on and on and on. You come in this thread and it is always 10-15 days out. Soon the pattern may look great for early April.

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You may be right about the snow. But it is looking likely that we get some kind of blocking towards mid March. And that is a horrible solution IMO. The blocking comes right on time for 33 and rain throughout March.

Late march can still produce up here. The snow BBQ idea is still on the table. 

[Bob Chill]

Euro weeklies show a good storm window the last week of March. I'm kidding but not really. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Seems to me that the Friday clipper is inching south.

Dusting by Fri am?

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seems to me that the Friday clipper is inching south.

Dusting by Fri am?

Euro shifted north last night with the vort pass so my guess is guidance is converging on a track north of us. GFS has been north the whole time. You might get a dusting but the only way I'll see anything worthwhile is if SLP tracks south and chances of that seem to be fading unfortunately. 

[BTRWx]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol even if DC finished +3 with 5" of snow December to February he would verify.  Even if the enso stays east based how many Ninos other then the super ninos of 73 & 98 produces worse then that?  Since I highly doubt we're getting another super nino his bet seems safe. And that's assuming it stays east based some of the sst models shift it towards a modoki by next winter. 

I'll support that.