CAPE Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Your right, it's not what we want to see. What a weak sauce NA ridge that is by day 8. Huge difference from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Dam, the PAC has been pissing in our cherrios all winter and it looks like it will do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: What a weak sauce NA ridge that is by day 8. Huge difference from 0z. You know, I didn't even notice that. I was to busy cussing out the trough setting up down into the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On to the EPS! Trends have not been good on the ops or ensembles over several runs now. This might very well be headed into the crapper just like every other advertised GOOD LOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Dam, the PAC has been pissing in our cherrios all winter and it looks like it will do it again. Think it's because of the La Niña? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Think it's because of the La Niña? Maybe a little though I think the major reason lies elsewhere. QBO maybe? That aspect of the weather with the large scale drivers you are probably better off asking PSU who really knows his crap. vs me who is a layman at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Blah, tracking this winter has been an absolute crapfest. After the thunder and hailstorm I had the other day not to mention the tornado it spawned just to my north and west, in Febuary no less, maybe I should take up severe instead. Guess I should crack open the books and maybe take that up as a new hobby. Because God knows, tracking snow seems to be a lost cause in these parts lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Day 20 still looking good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Though it still holds onto the general idea of the evolution of the pattern I think we are probably losing the EPS as well. Canadian northwestern PV and associated trough through Alaska has shifted south somewhat and it is less aggressive with the PV lobe that gets pinched off and the eastern trough it induces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The consistent theme of the winter is the coin flip probabilities of anything beyond 7 days, including the ensembles. Some have speculated as to what the real driver of the pattern has been, but there is some driver that has been able to mask itself from the models at long range. It's kinda like that good looking girl you have been checking out on the other side of the night club after you've been there about 3 hours, and had a few too many. From a distance she's a 10, or at least a 9. Once she starts walking over, her number starts falling, and pretty soon you decide that now might be a good time take a whizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The consistent theme of the winter is the coin flip probabilities of anything beyond 7 days, including the ensembles. Some have speculated as to what the real driver of the pattern has been, but there is some driver that has been able to mask itself from the models at long range. It's kinda like that good looking girl you have been checking out on the other side of the night club after you've been there about 3 hours, and had a few too many. From a distance she's a 10, or at least a 9. Once she starts walking over, her number starts falling, and pretty soon you decide that now might be a good time take a whizz. She's a 2 at 10...and a 10 at 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Nina's suck with very few exceptions. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nina's suck with very few exceptions. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. I thought it was the lack of troughs into Japan that did us in this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nina's suck with very few exceptions. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. At least it stayed dry in California.. hahaha The weather will do what it wants, regardless of what the indices tell you. Record snow cover in Siberia? Another worthless predictor for us.. I doubt anyone will give a crap what Cohen thinks next year. One things for sure, once it locks into a long wave pattern, it's a b**ch getting out of it. I think we should put more emphasis on how the pattern is coming together and repeating leading up to November to get any idea what might happen over the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The 18z will save us right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: At least it stayed dry in California.. hahaha The weather will do what it wants, regardless of what the indices tell you. Record snow cover in Siberia? Another worthless predictor for us.. I doubt anyone will give a crap what Cohen thinks next year. One things for sure, once it locks into a long wave pattern, it's a b**ch getting out of it. I think we should put more emphasis on how the pattern is coming together and repeating leading up to November to get any idea what might happen over the winter. Dont say that. I mentioned that about a week ago... and people didnt like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: The 18z will save us right Yes...yes it wil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Dont say that. I mentioned that about a week ago... and people didnt like it I guess it should be obvious.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 At least we still got the day 295 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 42 minutes ago, Yeoman said: At least it stayed dry in California.. hahaha The weather will do what it wants, regardless of what the indices tell you. Record snow cover in Siberia? Another worthless predictor for us.. I doubt anyone will give a crap what Cohen thinks next year. One things for sure, once it locks into a long wave pattern, it's a b**ch getting out of it. I think we should put more emphasis on how the pattern is coming together and repeating leading up to November to get any idea what might happen over the winter. Weather being weather is always a factor regardless of any leading indicator. As it unfolds there is a lot of analysis to why it's doing what it's doing but in reality some things dont really need explaining and in many cases they can't be accurately explained anyway. However, I disagree about just looking at a stable long wave pattern and rolling that forward all winter. The majority of our winters will have opposing periods baked in. Many times the majority of our snow falls during a fairly short window or a couple windows. Using your theory would also mean that having a cold and snowy Dec means we are going to have a big winter but there are a good number cases in the past have flipped to crap and we end up below normal. 14-15 was pretty dismal across the board until mid Feb but it ended up being a fairly impressive winter by the end. The only easy calls for a good winter are mod nino's with a good signal for the atlantic to cooperate. Those rare but fun years usually start showing their hands by mid Nov. This winter did have a giant red flag early and that was the AO. Big positive AOs in December mean warmer than normal and below normal snowfall the vast majority of the time. I knew we were in some pretty big trouble by early Jan and I mentioned it more than once. The magnitude of the suckfest certainly exceeded even my most pessimistic thoughts but it can happen and this definitely isn't our last major dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Nina's suck with very few exceptions. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. And for this region, I believe it! I remember seeing a chart of our winters going back to the 50s, and iirc, most of the Niña years were pretty paltry, while Niños produced something much more often! Neutral years may be more of a coin flip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 58 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes...yes it wil. Nice 1-3" event for SNE with the late week clipper. No "save" in sight yet for our sorry a** region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 This really is one remarkably convoluted setup. Battle of the blocks. Each with their "supporting" vortices. Right now the Western pair is winning. And since the Pacific has dominated all winter, thats where my money is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: I thought it was the lack of troughs into Japan that did us in this year. It was....caused by the Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Nice 1-3" event for SNE with the late week clipper. No "save" in sight yet for our sorry a** region. Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 18z looks better than 12z @ hr 204 with the western vortex not as far displaced into AK, and not a massive GoAK trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 And 18z GFS is a fail. If you wanna see snow, book at flight to Lake Tahoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 The look on the GEFS continues to deteriorate. Trough does not dig into the east as it did on previous runs and is now broad and flat. Though you couldn't completely rule out getting some northern stream energy underneath us the look probably argues against it. Even if we could get some energy underneath and if temps would cooperate think the best upside at this point would be of an inch or possibly two. Still time to right the ship but at this point it is looking pretty bleak. Hopefully the 00Z suite at least stops the bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The look on the GEFS continues to deteriorate. Trough does not dig into the east as it did on previous runs and is now broad and flat. Though you couldn't completely rule out getting some northern stream energy underneath us the look probably argues against it. Even if we could get some energy underneath and if temps would cooperate think the best upside at this point would be of an inch or possibly two. Still time to right the ship but at this point it is looking pretty bleak. Hopefully the 00Z suite at least stops the bleeding. But but that nasty NA block towards the end! only 15 days away! Oh and the snowfall mean has increased quite a bit on the 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: But but that nasty NA block towards the end! only 15 days away! Oh and the snowfall mean has increased quite a bit on the 18z GEFS I like your post better then mine it had a much better spin. You convinced me. I'm back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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