March medium/long range disco

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Though the timing is different, EPS is a day and a half quicker, both the overnight runs of GEFS and EPS continue to show a pv lobe being pinched off from the northwestern Canada PV and being sent just north of the Great Lakes in roughly the day 8/9 period. Both have improved in regards to this feature by dropping it even farther south and the corresponding trough is responding by digging deeper as well as sharpening (though the sharpening is more so in regards to the GEFS). 

Though there is some tweaking to the setup that I would like to eventually see I think the most important thing at this time (were talking day 8+ after all) is to see a continuation of the strong blocking forcing a pv lobe to be pinched off and being sent into the lakes. We also want to see a continuation, over subsequent runs, of having that lobe drop further south and the trough following suit by digging even deeper with even more sharpening. The deeper and sharper that trough is the better chances we have of having any potential NS energy that does rotate through slide underneath us. Not to mention that this, especially the sharpening, would also increase the upside potential.

 

 

Are you looking at the 6z as it comes in....It's a train wreck at 500mb. Yes it's op run but it's quite a bit different from previous runs.  

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You should probably not look at 6z.   Not sure what that set up is but looking at 500mb it can't be good.  PV is not to our NE...not sure where it is.

Yep, looks like crap alright. I think it was PSU that warned about this yesterday. The PV in northwestern Canada rotates farther south and west then previous runs and this allows heights to build into central Canada. Screws everything up. Though it is a feasible solution I can't get to excited about it yet. It's an op run at range and an off run to boot. Now if we see this on the 12Z then I might begin to worry.

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Are you looking at the 6z as it comes in....It's a train wreck at 500mb. Yes it's op run but it's quite a bit different from previous runs.  

Lets see what the GEFS has to say but considering that this whole winter has been crap it wouldn't surprise me if this type of solution is what actually verifies. Would be the cherry on top you might say. Seeing as my weatherbell expires on the 8'th that allows me to follow this to almost verification time for better or worse so I am somewhat content. So if it does become another train wreck then so be it.

[showmethesnow]

06Z GEFS run doesn't agree with its op run. Still pinches a pv lobe off and sends it north of the lakes. 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Are you looking at the 6z as it comes in....It's a train wreck at 500mb. Yes it's op run but it's quite a bit different from previous runs.  

We're still at the range where waffling with every op run isn't productive. The ensembles are more important. That said seeing two runs in a row of the op like that is not good after several good runs yesterday. What is most troubling is given the blocking that looks pretty real now on the Atlantic side and the way it retrogrades there are only a few ways to screw up the whole pattern. (Getting a storm takes some luck but I mean ruining the whole setup such that we don't even get a threat out of the block). The op gfs was way numero uno to screw up a great nao. When the PV splits the stronger the eastern lobe the better. The weaker and more out of the way the western the better.  Suddenly the gfs wants to keep the western trough stronger and slide it down  western North America into the Pacific Northwest. That's about the absolute worst spot to put the damn thing. It won't matter what's going on in the nao or anywhere else with a PV sitting near Seattle. What would be infuriating about that is it's just monumental bad luck. That's not the way we have been screwed all winter. It's not seasonal persistence.  The PV has been in a not so great spot up near AK most of the winter but the nao could overcome that right now. But not it it dumps into the western conus.  It's just we only have one shot left so we can't afford a fly in the ointment.  That said an op run at that range isn't a lot to go on and I haven't had time to fully digest the ensembles yet but from a glance they don't seem as bad on that feature. If things start to trend that way though then we have a problem. 

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We're still at the range where waffling with every op run isn't productive. The ensembles are more important. That said seeing two runs in a row of the op like that is not good after several good runs yesterday. What is most troubling is given the blocking that looks pretty real now on the Atlantic side and the way it retrogrades there are only a few ways to screw up the whole pattern. (Getting a storm takes some luck but I mean ruining the whole setup such that we don't even get a threat out of the block). The op gfs was way numero uno to screw up a great nao. When the PV splits the stronger the eastern lobe the better. The weaker and more out of the way the western the better.  Suddenly the gfs wants to keep the western trough stronger and slide it down  western North America into the Pacific Northwest. That's about the absolute worst spot to put the damn thing. It won't matter what's going on in the nao or anywhere else with a PV sitting near Seattle. What would be infuriating about that is it's just monumental bad luck. That's not the way we have been screwed all winter. It's not seasonal persistence.  The PV has been in a not so great spot up near AK most of the winter but the nao could overcome that right now. But not it it dumps into the western conus.  It's just we only have one shot left so we can't afford a fly in the ointment.  That said an op run at that range isn't a lot to go on and I haven't had time to fully digest the ensembles yet but from a glance they don't seem as bad on that feature. If things start to trend that way though then we have a problem. 

Trough on the west coast has been the pattern all season, so odds certainly favor it.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

06Z GEFS run doesn't agree with its op run. Still pinches a pv lobe off and sends it north of the lakes. 

Yeah it looks fine. The op runs are going to come up with various evolutions for a while yet.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Trough on the west coast has been the pattern all season, so odds certainly favor it.

Given the shorter wavelengths this time of year and a pretty major block to our north we could overcome some troughing out west. It's not ideal by any stretch and less troughing is better but what the op gfs did was dump the whole vortex down the west coast. That's a pattern destroyer there. 

After a closer look at the overnight runs I'm not a fan. The blocking is fine. But the trend was towards more troughing out west which shunts the trough in the east to the right. That puts us on the dry backside for a few days then we simply warm up as the ridging pumps east of the western trough and comes east. 

However, the guidance has been waffling around day to day with that.  The real threat here for a big event is still 9+ days away.  The clipper Friday bears watching as those things adjust a lot on guidance but the main way we can score he is after the system that cuts up through the ridging between the PV split day 8. That develops into a monster 50/50 type vortex.  That's our window after that. Problem is it looks dry and suppressive for a couple days. So then we need the block/50/50 setup to hold long enough to wait for something to come from the west (ggem yesterday idea) or get a vort to pinwheel around and dig in and go nuts like the gfs yesterday.  

Right now the guidance says no to that. That we get cold for 3 days and dry then the trough in the west takes over and pumps ridging across and we warm before anything can come along.  However, the setup that gets us to a good look is starting to develop now and we're then trusting the really long range breakdown to be correct. Given our lack of luck I lean that way and I've been bearish on snow and remain so but it is plausible that the guidance is missing how things evolve after day 9.  The guidance is going to adjust some. It's not going to nail every detail at that range. Were at a pretty good spot day 8-9 so it's feasible a slight adjustment in our favor and a threat pops up after like the gfs op runs yesterday.  I don't expect it but I also wouldn't be shocked. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it looks fine. The op runs are going to come up with various evolutions for a while yet.

Ehh there closer but there is a reason there is no snow signal at all. Their close but flawed. Trough digs too far east and then is pushed out too fast.  As it is won't work. But things will adjust and it's very close. Out hope is if the adjustment is towards more trough further west then suddenly we're looking at an op gfs from yesterday type pattern. 

[showmethesnow]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ehh there closer but there is a reason there is no snow signal at all. Their close but flawed. Trough digs too far east and then is pushed out too fast.  As it is won't work. But things will adjust and it's very close. Out hope is if the adjustment is towards more trough further west then suddenly we're looking at an op gfs from yesterday type pattern. 

This is part of the tweaking I mentioned. Need that trough to dig a little farther to the west putting us on the front side of the trough and the blocking to hold a day or two longer holding that trough in place. Would also prefer to see that we are kept on the front side of that trough as pv lobe moves out so that we are in play if anything does pop up as the pattern relaxes. We saw this on a run of the GFS a few runs ago.

But for now I will be content on the models holding onto the general overall pattern and not go to hell like the 06Z gfs op did. Get us to day 4/5 when the models will be starting to get a handle on what NS features will be on the field then I will start worrying about the finer details

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

This is part of the tweaking I mentioned. Need that trough to dig a little farther to the west putting us on the front side of the trough and the blocking to hold a day or two longer holding that trough in place. Would also prefer to see that we are kept on the front side of that trough as pv lobe moves out so that we are in play if anything does pop up as the pattern relaxes. We saw this on a run of the GFS a few runs ago.

But for now I will be content on the models holding onto the general overall pattern and not go to hell like the 06Z gfs op did. Get us to day 4/5 when the models will be starting to get a handle on what NS features will be on the field then I will start worrying about the finer details

The one good thing is a typical model error is to break things down too fast. If the blocking pattern were to linger a couple days longer we would have a good setup. Error bias might work in our favor in that regard. Of course the error bias on the west coast and with troughs in the east BOTH are against us. 

[dallen7908]

If few or none of the ensembles are showing wintry precipitation in or near the mid-Atlantic during the period of interest (March 7-14) than it is wishful thinking to believe that the pattern is promising. That said, at least the upcoming period is one in which wishful thinking produces accumulating snow, that wasn't true for most of the winter and won't be for much longer. 

[psuhoffman]

The pacific is just a freaking wrecking crew. It's unreal that this setup on the Atlantic side can't help us because of an equally awful pacific side.   It's really hard to get a ridge like that across the eastern conus with that kind of blocking and 50/50.  Its impressive in a "are we cursed" kind of way.

 

 

[PhineasC]

You guys are the real heroes, sticking with this terrible winter trying to find any glimmer of hope.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pacific is just a freaking wrecking crew. It's unreal that this setup on the Atlantic side can't help us because of an equally awful pacific side.   It's really hard to get a ridge like that across the eastern conus with that kind of blocking and 50/50.  Its impressive in a "are we cursed" kind of way.

 

 

We finally get a very strong block in the north Atlantic and what shows up? Even stronger blocking to the north and west of the PV in northwest Canada shoving that southward towards the pacific northwest where we don't want it. Go figure. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

We finally get a very strong block in the north Atlantic and what shows up? Even stronger blocking to the north and west of the PV in northwest Canada shoving that southward towards the pacific northwest where we don't want it. Go figure. 

yea this run is getting screwed by that features same as the last two.  Any weakening or north adjustment to that feature in the pacific and suddenly we would have a more favorable outcome so its still worth keeping an eye on but that trend in the Pacific is a problem no doubt. 

[psuhoffman]

GFS op has reverted to what the GFS and GEFS were doing two days ago when we had that bad day of runs, keeping the western trough dominant and pumping too much heights across the CONUS and basically shifting everything northeast of where we need it on the atlantic side. 

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS op has reverted to what the GFS and GEFS were doing two days ago when we had that bad day of runs, keeping the western trough dominant and pumping too much heights across the CONUS and basically shifting everything northeast of where we need it on the atlantic side. 

Normally don't get phased by an op run or even two at range but when you see three in a row that have the same solution it is definitely a red flag irregardless of what the ensembles show. It makes me question if there may be some forcing mechanism that strongly favors this evolution that the lower resolution members are not picking up on.

Edit: Of course I haven't looked at the individual members so maybe there is a camp that supports this but is getting overridden by the other members.

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Gefs looks better then the operational 

Everything just looks so much less blocky than previous.  Not through all of it yet though.  I was clicking back at h5 and the progression is amplified to meh

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Everything just looks so much less blocky than previous.  Not through all of it yet though.  I was clicking back at h5 and the progression is amplified to meh

Its plenty blocky. But even the 12z GEFS is tilting heavily in the direction of a really stout AK trough.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Its plenty blocky. But even the 12z GEFS is tilting heavily in the direction of a really stout AK trough.

The overall look, not to mention with the key features, has degraded on the gefs. Let's see what the EPS says before we start waving the white flag though. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs looks better then the operational .Has a sharper trough day 8 on forward .6z gefs was better but op seems to be an outlier

yea the GEFS is "better" then the op, but its  worse then the last few GEFS runs and even those runs didn't produce much if any snow for us on most of the members.  We need a better trend not worse, even slightly worse.  Honestly pretty soon even simply seeing the same solution run to run is a loss as we need a favorable trend not status quo.  So I guess if we really want to have rose colored glasses were still close enough to hold out some hope.  Anytime you see blocking like is developing it would be a big mistake to sleep on the period.  Things tend to pop up with that kind of blocking.  But that aside, the trend is the wrong way and thats not what you want to see as you move closer in time. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

The overall look, not to mention with the key features, has degraded on the gefs. Let's see what the EPS says before we start waving the white flag though. 

I think we are still days from knowing how this likely ends up. Some pretty complex interactions at play and still a range of possible ways this could evolve.

[Interstate]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I think we are still days from knowing how this likely ends up. Some pretty complex interactions at play and still a range of possible ways this could evolve.

 

[psuhoffman]

The GEFS isnt awful, but everything is east of where we need it.  If we were to shift everything west a bit it would be a great look.  That actually isn't that much of a get to ask for at the range were talking.  Honestly, the guidance is NOT going to nail the exact location of the longwave trough/ridge axis from that range.  Go on Tropical Tidbits and go back through the history and compare runs from 5 days apart and verification of features.  Things will move around at the range were looking at.  It will adjust.  We just need that adjustment to be in the right direction.  It could just as easily be the wrong way, and perhaps more likely, since its trending that way right now.  But trends can stop and reverse any run.  Just trying to hold on to some hope. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think we are still days from knowing how this likely ends up. Some pretty complex interactions at play and still a range of possible ways this could evolve.

Short of totally losing the pattern I will be sticking till at least the 4/5 day mark when the models can start getting a handle on what we are dealing with in the NS. 

[showmethesnow]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS isnt awful, but everything is east of where we need it.  If we were to shift everything west a bit it would be a great look.  That actually isn't that much of a get to ask for at the range were talking.  Honestly, the guidance is NOT going to nail the exact location of the longwave trough/ridge axis from that range.  Go on Tropical Tidbits and go back through the history and compare runs from 5 days apart and verification of features.  Things will move around at the range were looking at.  It will adjust.  We just need that adjustment to be in the right direction.  It could just as easily be the wrong way, and perhaps more likely, since its trending that way right now.  But trends can stop and reverse any run.  Just trying to hold on to some hope. 

The one problem I have with the gefs is that I think what we are seeing with the means is that it is actually signaling that there is a camp of members that show the NW Canada pv being displaced southward and this camp is getting stronger as we see that shifting of the trough eastward over progressive runs. I will try to explain my reasoning but it may be somewhat confusing. Looking at the crap op runs we see that it initially surges with the trough down into the north central portion of the country and then it rolls over itself and then surges down once again into the east. Now throw that type of solution into the mix with the other members that show one surge of the trough dropping down into the midwest and what you would get in the means is an initial shallow half assed through in between the central/midwest that would then surge as it hit the east. I think the fact we are also seeing higher pressures over subsequent runs with the pinched off pv lobe into the lakes is also another indicator as well. Now I have not looked into the individual members to verify this, and don't plan to, so maybe I am dead wrong on this but my gut tells me we may be in trouble here.

Edit: That statement is even confusing to myself so let me generalize. The look and the behavior of the trough would differ if most members showed favorable solutions of keeping the PV in northwest Canada and pinching off a pv lobe towards the lakes vs. a solution that was a mix of favorable solutions and unfavorable solutions that drop the pv into the northwest. At this time the look and the tendencies tell me we are probably dealing with a mix of solutions and these unfavorable solutions are increasing over subsequent runs.

[Bob Chill]

Euro sticking with the snow tv clipper idea friday morning. Timing is pretty bad so not much chance to stick on anything but would be a period of snow falling from the sky that would melt on contact. Could be the biggest event of the month though. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro sticking with the snow tv clipper idea friday morning. Timing is pretty bad so not much chance to stick on anything but would be a period of snow falling from the sky that would melt on contact. Could be the biggest event of the month though. 

Not sure I like the Euro through day 7 at h5. Bigger +height anomalies over us, weaker up in GL. The western block/vortex is winning.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure I like the Euro through day 7 at h5. Bigger +height anomalies over us, weaker up in GL. The western block/vortex is winning.

Your right, it's not what we want to see.