Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Northern Neck jackpot with 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Panasonic agrees with Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 what kind of snow totals are you seeing from this run for central Virginia Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:31 PM, Deck Pic said: Suppressed, but still a nice hit. 4-8" for DC/Southern Burbs, 2-4" for Baltimore...Central VA gets nailed. Probably right where we want it Expand Being on the northern edge of the mod/heavy snow at day 6 is NOT a bad spot to be in at all....just ask those in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 GFS gives me 10", Euro gives me 3". Eh, even 3" would be better than I have had all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:34 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Panasonic agrees with Euro. Expand Big Ten Championship game would be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Excellent run as both Matt and Bob said for us... EPS should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:34 PM, supernovasky said: GFS gives me 10", Euro gives me 3". Eh, even 3" would be better than I have had all year. Expand As long as I can get the grass completely covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The next round is already loaded on day 7. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017030612&fh=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 500mb's are somewhat different on this run from the 00z leading into the Sun storm. Like the setup better after it for the day 9 event compared to the earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:35 PM, yoda said: Excellent run as both Matt and Bob said for us... EPS should be fun Expand At this lead the EPS almost always follows the op in general. My guess is the max stripe is similar to the op but with lesser totals because of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:34 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Panasonic agrees with Euro. Expand 1/30/10 Snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Low of 10 monday morning at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:34 PM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Big Ten Championship game would be a mess Expand If Sunday goes down like that map depicts...find me a higher cliff. DT should not be allowed to have that much luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:38 PM, Deck Pic said: Low of 10 monday morning at IAD Expand Just for humor I checked, and that would blow away the current record of 16 for IAD (set in 1998 of all years). Would be similar at DCA/BWI as well it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Day 8 Euro is breaking decent pattern down it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Also... Cold has been modeled way to strong all year... not saying it is this time... but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:34 PM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Big Ten Championship game would be a mess Expand Go Boilers!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:34 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Panasonic agrees with Euro. Expand I'd rather have zero than miss like that. But at least even in this "worst case scenario" we get a nice consolation prize! Let's see how much waffling we get here... (P.S. Still learning the art of model run patience--but given this winter, even a passing negative trend at all feels much worse than usual, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:44 PM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Also... Cold has been modeled way to strong all year... not saying it is this time... but Expand We've yet to have a big threat in the day 7 window, other than the storm that swung well to the south (and was colder than modeled 7 days out expected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:44 PM, mitchnick said: Day 8 Euro is breaking decent pattern down it seems. Expand Yeah, it does. Not sure what I was looking at previously when I mentioned the better setup for the follow up but it sure wasn't the 12Z Euro. Pattern pretty much goes into the crapper after our day 6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 For those of you looking at the "Total Snowfall" maps, keep in mind that this also includes a 1-3" stripe from Friday, centered around the MD/PA border. Those folks get fringed for the main event (at least in this model run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 JMA is a decent hit day 6 then wants to set up a monster day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 6:55 PM, paulythegun said: For those of you looking at the "Total Snowfall" maps, keep in mind that this also includes a 1-3" stripe from Friday, centered around the MD/PA border. Those folks get fringed for the main event (at least in this model run). Expand yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 JMA is about 1.2" of frozen precip for DCA, give or take, through Tuesday 12z. A bit of that is from the next system that's loading up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 When PSU panics over suppression, I'll consider it. Maybe not even then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 7:11 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: When PSU panics over suppression, I'll consider it. Maybe not even then. Expand I'm worried about it. For me especially it's the bigger risk then north trend imo. DC has way more wiggle room then me here. That doesn't mean I think it goes south just I can see how that could happen. Both the first two march 2014 events were lame up here. We can get fringed. I'm talking about the Sunday storm only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 7:16 PM, psuhoffman said: I'm worried about it. For me especially it's the bigger risk then north trend imo. DC has way more wiggle room then me here. That doesn't mean I think it goes south just I can see how that could happen. Both the first two march 2014 events were lame up here. We can get fringed. I'm talking about the Sunday storm only. Expand Preach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 7:16 PM, psuhoffman said: I'm worried about it. For me especially it's the bigger risk then north trend imo. DC has way more wiggle room then me here. That doesn't mean I think it goes south just I can see how that could happen. Both the first two march 2014 events were lame up here. We can get fringed. I'm talking about the Sunday storm only. Expand We are far enough out there will still be some back and forth with the track. The exact outcome ultimately depends to a large extent on the exact timing and strength of the vortex rotating down under the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 7:21 PM, C.A.P.E. said: We are far enough out there will still be some back and forth with the track. The exact outcome ultimately depends to a large extent on the exact timing and strength of the vortex rotating down under the block. Expand I agree. Just because I'm aware of the risk doesn't mean I think that's our fate (yet). But the south trend can stop now. That said just about everything did bleed north the last 72 hours. The early January storm went too far south first. If this starts looking like an Atlanta to Raleigh storm we're in trouble. I don't mind seeing a healthy system across central va as much. That's not much of an adjustment needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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