BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 00Z GFS should be close to 18Z...congrats Harrisburg-Binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:16 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: 00Z GFS should be close to 18Z...congrats Harrisburg-Binghamton Expand Heights and temps better than 18z. It's shifting south every run now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:20 AM, Bob Chill said: Heights and temps better than 18z. It's shifting south every run now. Expand Its pretty damn close to 18z .not much can be made of that...not to mention we should wait another 2-3 days anyway. As you know that boundary will easily shift. Ill bet on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The shift south all day today on the GFS is undeniable. Every run ticks a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:22 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Its pretty damn close to 18z .not much can be made of that...not to mention we should wait another 2-3 days anyway. As you know that boundary will easily shift. Ill bet on north. Expand I'm just saying what the 0z is showing compared to 18z. They aren't close. There are significant differences. And the last 3 runs have shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:25 AM, Thanatos_I_Am said: The shift south all day today on the GFS is undeniable. Every run ticks a little farther south. Expand I cant tell you how many times ive seen ticks south in the 6-8 day range to see a north shift in the 3-5 day range...Im not buying it, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 CMC looks very similar to december 09 at hr 132. Storm trying to brew along the TX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:20 AM, Bob Chill said: Heights and temps better than 18z. It's shifting south every run now. Expand Agreed higher heights on the west coast, it's a trend towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:27 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I cant tell you how many times ive seen ticks south in the 6-8 day range to see a north shift in the 3-5 day range...Im not buying it, sorry Expand Should put us in the bullseye on the euro then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:27 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I cant tell you how many times ive seen ticks south in the 6-8 day range to see a north shift in the 3-5 day range...Im not buying it, sorry Expand Just making an observation. If I was a betting man I'd put a lot on this missing north just judging off this season's luck. Good thing I'm not a betting man ;). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:27 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I cant tell you how many times ive seen ticks south in the 6-8 day range to see a north shift in the 3-5 day range...Im not buying it, sorry Expand You have every right to not buy it and you may be right not too. But you've made the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:22 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Its pretty damn close to 18z .not much can be made of that...not to mention we should wait another 2-3 days anyway. As you know that boundary will easily shift. Ill bet on north. Expand It really isn't close. Especially if you do a trend loop. Bob is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:27 AM, Amped said: CMC looks very similar to december 09 at hr 132. Storm trying to brew along the TX coast. Expand Soooo close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Cmc is close to a monster but just misses south. Looking forward to the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 All Im saying is, Harrisburg to Binghamton..3-6/4-8 inches. My call right now. Us, chilly rain ****ty weekend. 40s to near 50. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:25 AM, Bob Chill said: I'm just saying what the 0z is showing compared to 18z. They aren't close. There are significant differences. And the last 3 runs have shifted south. Expand You're correct, but his skepticism will likely pay off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:33 AM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: All Im saying is, Harrisburg to Binghamton..3-6/4-8 inches. My call right now. Us, chilly rain ****ty weekend. 40s to near 50. Lets see. Expand You're usually just an annoying negative Nancy, but this time it has some merit. We all know how this will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:33 AM, stormtracker said: You're correct, but his skepticism will likely pay off. Expand My money is on missing to the south right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:34 AM, Bob Chill said: My money us on missing to the south right now. Expand If this were a normal winter, I'd honestly love where we're sitting now on the GFS. GFS would likely be paying catch up with the cold press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Ummm... GFS gives Central PA 14-20" with that Sun-Mon system. That's pretty incredible considering they get little off the coastal redevelopment. Obviously just model fantasy, but still pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:36 AM, snjókoma said: Ummm... GFS gives Central PA 14-20" with that Sun-Mon system. That's pretty incredible considering they get little off the coastal redevelopment. Obviously just model fantasy, but still pretty interesting. Expand i am seeing 32 inch amounts lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030600&fh=162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:34 AM, stormtracker said: You're usually just an annoying negative Nancy, but this time it has some merit. We all know how this will go. Expand Maybe..I cant explain it, my gut is better than most... On 3/6/2017 at 4:34 AM, Bob Chill said: My money us on missing to the south right now. Expand Nah, I think the boundary will go north...Needs to be a study...I think for most part models 8-9 days out are more correct than 6-7 days...then things get blurry...Ive seen it so many times where a model is right 8 days out then gives us hope then goes back to the ****ty solution...I think Harrisburg-Binghamton gets some snow out of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:40 AM, Ji said: i am seeing 32 inch amounts lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017030600&fh=162 Expand lol, there's a 35" in there..and no coastal enhancement. Snowfall maps...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 this looks like its gonna be an epic storm for somewhere between hampton roads and philadelphia - roll the dice and hope we land in the bullseyeSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:33 AM, Bob Chill said: Cmc is close to a monster but just misses south. Looking forward to the north trend. Expand Surface isn't out yet but ggem goes nuts a day later and bombs and closes off at h5. so many moving parts but I wouldn't be shocked if the most amplified system is the one around march 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:45 AM, psuhoffman said: Surface isn't out yet but ggem goes nuts a day later and bombs and closes off at h5. so many moving parts but I wouldn't be shocked if the most amplified system is the one around march 15 Expand Odd looking storm. It Resembles 12/30/2000 in some ways but we get some snow out of the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 00z CMC spits out low to mid teen snowfall amounts for the 3/14-15 storm from DCA to Baltimore, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:48 AM, Amped said: Odd looking storm. It Resembles 12/30/2000 in some ways but we get some snow out of the deal. Expand Lots of moving parts but it was almost inevitable given the pattern. The trough was so loaded I could see where it was going and even as the day 6 storm was missing south I was watching the energy diving in behind and thinking that's going boom this run. It was closer to something absolutely epic honestly and the only thing that prevented a euro from Friday night type solution was how many vorts were splitting the energy initially and took some time to get together. That h5 though... that was an hecs look honestly. The day 6 storm has real potential and I'm not poo pooing it at all but the system right behind it has been showing hints at possibly being a major amplification threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 4:56 AM, psuhoffman said: Lots of moving parts but it was almost inevitable given the pattern. The trough was so loaded I could see where it was going and even as the day 6 storm was missing south I was watching the energy diving in behind and thinking that's going boom this run. It was closer to something absolutely epic honestly and the only thing that prevented a euro from Friday night type solution was how many vorts were splitting the energy initially and took some time to get together. That h5 though... that was an hecs look honestly. The day 6 storm has real potential and I'm not poo pooing it at all but the system right behind it has been showing hints at possibly being a major amplification threat. Expand I'll take both thank you.. I'm tracking the first system first since models have been nowhere close to consistent lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 5:01 AM, Amped said: I'll take both thank you.. I'm tracking the first system first since models have been nowhere close to consistent lately. Expand Why limit let's go for all 3. I see 3 legit threats. March 12/13, 14/15, 17/18. All low prob at this range. But this pattern looks loaded. Shame it's mid march. What if after all this crap all winter we pulled off 3 hits to end the season. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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