psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Info on the individual gefs members is trickling in. There are positive trends. Snowfall took a significant move south just to our north in the 8-10 day period. Even a handful of members get snow into the northern half of our forum during that period. Last few runs were way north with the storm that period. Then there is another bump in snow day 13-16 with a few hits. Mean back up near 2" after bottoming out near zero last few runs. About half the members have some snow across our region over the period. It's an improvement. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 5:43 PM, psuhoffman said: Yes the gefs is very close to the op. Dumps into the west day 8-12 then eventually digs a trough into the east late in the run. Expand I took hr 264 and clicked back through GEFS h5. last 3-4 runs look very similar set-up...this run amplified it more but that west trough look is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 12z Euro at 132 hours has a nice PNA ridge, and deeper eastern trough. Biggest difference is the location/strength of the Bering Strait ridge and AK trough. eta- big western ridge/deep eastern trough @156. and a sweet Davis strait ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 6:37 PM, losetoa6 said: Yep..Pretty impressive so far. Expand This is another one of those op runs that shows how things could evolve in a really favorable way. Lots of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 I'll wait until one shows an actual storm. We've had some good setups and no storms, not even a decent disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 The 12z Euro is going all out weenie lol. damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 6:42 PM, losetoa6 said: Looks like a piece of energy breaking off at hour 168 in South Dakota ... Expand Yup another lobe rotates down and a new trough deepens. eta- Looks like that becomes a nice storm for interior MA/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 6:42 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'll wait until one shows an actual storm. We've had some good setups and no storms, not even a decent disturbance. Expand Actually has a nice storm at day 8 but verbatim its a big snow event for the mountains of western MD and PA and up into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 5:26 PM, Bob Chill said: We hoped and sorta expected the block to no break down fast. The EPS a week+ ago was showing a one and done or 1-2 and done pass with the PV lobe before losing the look. When I saw that I started seriously doubting that things would give us a larger window but in the back of my mind I kept thinking that more often than not, a stout block like that with a pv pinwheel going on below it, it can have some staying power. Each pass of the PV helps maintain the blocking in the davis straights. That's an ideal location for us because it can be temporarily self sustaining when the pinwheel lobes generate "ridging waves" in front of them. Anytime you can maintain pv lobes spinning but not making it north of the davis straights you can envision an extended period of the repeating pattern. Even if the GFS op is right with a western dump, as long as we have the block keeping lobes from escaping north of the davis straights then subsequent troughs can continue carving eastward. The big N-S thermal gradient in the conus that this pattern produces makes any energy rounding the base capable of going bigger than it would in January. It's a high octane pattern. Even if we fail miserably, I'm pretty much expecting someone to get one or more big snowstorms in March. The NE and upper MW obviously sitting in the better spots but at least a couple ingredients are setting up to be in place where even the sorry ass mid atlantic could get pasted. Expand You can see a classic example of this on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 6:50 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Actually has a nice storm at day 8 but verbatim its a big snow event for the mountains of western MD and PA and up into NE. Expand As I would expect for this late in the season. Amazingly good Euro patten is fine in January....most of us need historically good Euro pattern this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 7:02 PM, losetoa6 said: Day 8 Euro isn't far from some impact here. Eps could be BIGGG! Expand That's the first chance (albeit slim) so no sense looking too far ahead yet. EPS favors a NW track but still hasn't removed the cluster with a good track. A couple members take the low and snow south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 7:06 PM, losetoa6 said: Day 8 euro... Expand Wow that looks pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 7:09 PM, BristowWx said: Wow that looks pretty darn good Expand Yes and it's setting up another opportunity past day 10 too. Things relax but then given where the blocking and PV are that trough is about to dump into the east after day ten again. The gfs does that also but it's totally missing the first window because it holds the PV out west. Like bob said love the pinwheel idea. That can open up a multiple threat window pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 7:19 PM, losetoa6 said: Yea...it will be interesting if we pick up more southern solutions on the Eps for day8/9. Under 10 days ...lol At least a handful at 0z got underneath us. Expand Yeah based on the op run I would expect so see some nice solutions among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 7:19 PM, losetoa6 said: Yea...it will be interesting if we pick up more southern solutions on the Eps for day8/9. Under 10 days ...lol At least a handful at 0z got underneath us. Expand On 3/3/2017 at 7:23 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah based on the op run I would expect so see some nice solutions among the members. Expand We've seen plenty of nice solutions on ensemble members this winter. We've even seen so many good solutions that it created a good looking mean. Is there anything this time that would give us any reason to think that good solutions (if they are there) are anything but fantasy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 7:22 PM, psuhoffman said: Yes and it's setting up another opportunity past day 10 too. Things relax but then given where the blocking and PV are that trough is about to dump into the east after day ten again. The gfs does that also but it's totally missing the first window because it holds the PV out west. Like bob said love the pinwheel idea. That can open up a multiple threat window pattern. Expand I haven't looked at any part of the euro maps, but that one right there says storm to our nw with a cold front and cold air to follow. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 As I just start glancing over the Euro op, and I like what I see by the way, I must say the comments remind me of the 'Good cop, Bad cop' routine you see in movies so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just looked quick at the euro on TT. Day 7-8-9 looks like something that could be decent. That day 10 thing, IMO, is useless unless you're holding out hope for a wave riding the tail of the cold front that has to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 8:08 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Just looked quick at the euro on TT. Day 7-8-9 looks like something that could be decent. That day 10 thing, IMO, is useless unless you're holding out hope for a wave riding the tail of the cold front that has to be there. Expand That's all that can be said...looks decent and we shall what happens. But it beats seeing ridge after ridge in the east. Will wait until inside 5 days to pop the bubbly...I am learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 8:08 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Just looked quick at the euro on TT. Day 7-8-9 looks like something that could be decent. That day 10 thing, IMO, is useless unless you're holding out hope for a wave riding the tail of the cold front that has to be there. Expand No the day 10 is a cutter but the whole trough is rotating around again and is going to dump into the east and set up another window day 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 EPS trended colder day 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Why is Ian trashing the Op via the ensembles on twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 8:33 PM, North Balti Zen said: Why is Ian trashing the Op via the ensembles on twitter? Expand Why doesn't Ian post here anymore? I must have missed something along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 8:33 PM, North Balti Zen said: Why is Ian trashing the Op via the ensembles on twitter? Expand No idea I'm comparing the EPS to the previous EPS run not the op. You'll never see as deep a trough in an ensemble mean. 6-10 looks better. 10-15 looks worse so far but it's only out to d12 and it's not bad just not as deep a trough so far with the second round of the pinwheel mostly because the blocking is weaker post day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 K. I am guessing he was making the point that the ensembles don't match the Op in that he said "you won't be seeing a lot of EPS maps posted" after a flurry of Euro Op maps must have hit his twitter feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 8:33 PM, North Balti Zen said: Why is Ian trashing the Op via the ensembles on twitter? Expand I got the impression he was just saying nobody will tweet the EPS because it doesn't get clicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 8:40 PM, Kmlwx said: I got the impression he was just saying nobody will tweet the EPS because it doesn't get clicks. Expand Yes, he was clearly saying that - impression I got that it wasn't remotely good for snow/cold like the Op was trying to show. Since I can't access the Euro, was curious what our tracking die-hards were seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 What's an Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 3/3/2017 at 8:27 PM, psuhoffman said: No the day 10 is a cutter but the whole trough is rotating around again and is going to dump into the east and set up another window day 12-15 Expand Ok, I don't have much euro access so it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 EPS does dump another trough into the east day 14-15 like gfs. But has the cold day 6-10 the gfs doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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