JayCee Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: The GFS is making me nervous about Saturday night's temps. Please tell me we're not going to hit 31 degrees... I have a feeling the GFS is on the very low end, but even mid to upper 30's aren't good for local gardens. A touch of frost is the touch of death for most sensitive tomato plants. I was about to help my folks get theirs in the ground this weekend, but it's not gonna happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 3 hours ago, JayCee said: I have a feeling the GFS is on the very low end, but even mid to upper 30's aren't good for local gardens. A touch of frost is the touch of death for most sensitive tomato plants. I was about to help my folks get theirs in the ground this weekend, but it's not gonna happen now. I have nearly 100 tomato plants in the ground, not to mention all the other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I've not planted anything frost sensitive yet. I always wait until May 10th. At worst it just produces a little later in the year. But 1st week of May frosts are not uncommon in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 6 hours ago, Stovepipe said: The GFS is making me nervous about Saturday night's temps. Please tell me we're not going to hit 31 degrees... Just came here to express similar concerns. Seeing lows in the upper 30s on my point and click forecast for the weekend. Either way, I put peppers in the ground last weekend. They are going to be hating life w highs in the 50s. Fortunately, most of my stuff is not in the ground. I do have some sensitive plants already in the garden...bout 20% planted so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 5 hours ago, Stovepipe said: I have nearly 100 tomato plants in the ground, not to mention all the other stuff. You must be planning on canning. I THINK you're gonna be ok. The lowest temperature for Knoxville in the "official" forecast is the lower 40's. Unless you live in a low-lying area that is more prone to frost, you'll probably get by with little or no damage. East TN is well-known for it's micro climates with all the different elevations in the valley/ridge area, but with shorter nights and breezy conditions, frost will hopefully have a hard time forming this weekend. Sunday night looks like the greatest risk--with clear skies and possibly calm winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Sounds like a potential mountain wave event for tomorrow with gusts up to 80 mph in the mountains and foothills and up to 50 mph gusts elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 MRX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Stovepipe said: MRX: Yeah, when 30s show-up in a forecast it is like when a 40% chance of rain shows-up seven days out...that is a pretty good signal by the NWS they have confidence the event might happen. I think NE TN is most at risk like they say. Either way, temps in the 30s usually set my tomatoes back a couple of weeks if in the ground. I wonder if a big fan would keep the frost off or a sprinkler. They use those in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Low of 36 for Kingsport on Monday AM. Great. Time to go find sheets and extra newspapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Was hoping MathMet would chime in w the high winds in the mountains. GSMNP clocked a gust at 97 mph. http://www.wbir.com/news/local/sevierville-sevier/30-acre-fire-reported-in-gatlinburg-area-10k-without-power/436772018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Low of 36 for Kingsport on Monday AM. Great. Time to go find sheets and extra newspapers. Yeah it looks like thinges will get cold and pretty much stay cold. Definitely a chance for a frost this coming weekend. I know our point and click has us having lows in the 30s three nights straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Was hoping MathMet would chime in w the high winds in the mountains. GSMNP clocked a gust at 97 mph. http://www.wbir.com/news/local/sevierville-sevier/30-acre-fire-reported-in-gatlinburg-area-10k-without-power/436772018 I've always been fascinated with how localized the mountain wave events are. I live about 7 miles east-northeast of Sevierville. Right now, and for much of the day, I have had very little wind here. While less than 10 miles to my south, winds were howling. Pretty interesting to observe, but since I live in the woods, I'm glad to be rarely affected by these crazy mountain wave winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 MJO on the Euro is fixing to get into 2 in around ten days give or take.When it gets into 3 that should be a storm pattern in the Valley based on anomalies,doesn't look like it going to waste much time though if it's right getting into the warm phases .Weeklies look rather warm the last of May into June,SER looking with the 850's hitting 20c+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 6, 2017 Author Share Posted May 6, 2017 Nasty weather outside right now. Light, wind-driven rain w precip spiraling southward straight out of the north. Wind chills in the upper 40s after high temps well into the 80s last weekend. What a difference a week makes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Looks like the weeklies into the last week of May into June.Believe there will be a system effecting the Valley around the 23rd of this month,give or take before hand..So the cool spring looks to be coming to an end right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 6, 2017 Author Share Posted May 6, 2017 4" of snow on Mt Leconte last night. Props to Powell for posting this on another forum. Good find. http://www.highonleconte.com/daily-posts/may-6-2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 6, 2017 Author Share Posted May 6, 2017 It was 90 last Saturday at TRI. Right now it is 52 w light rain and winds gusting to 26. Wind chills are in the 40s. I feel like I moved from FL to Maine. Couple of cold nights on tap. Frost is a possibility in the northern valleys on Sunday night IMO. Feels like late February out there or early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 The current click and point forecast for 6500 feet near LeConte is for snow with some thunder possible, 2 additional inches of accumulation and another inch possible overnight. I'd guess they end up with 6-10 inches by tomorrow morning. Looking at the radar, it's probably snowing 1-2 inches per hour in that area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Per MRX: Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 323 PM EDT Sat May 6 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tomorrow)... Will include a pre-first period in the forecast for late afternoon adjustments. It looks like any thunderstorm chances should be limited to only the Southern Valley. Took thunder out of forecast for Central Valley as well as adjusted temperatures. It`s been a crazy weather day. At the current hour it`s 73 at Chattanooga and only 45 at Knoxville and it`s still snowing on Mt. LeConte. I could see the white capped mountains from my home today. I have NEVER seen that this late in the year before, since moving here in 2003. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 7, 2017 Author Share Posted May 7, 2017 Mt Leconte. Crazy that we are still talking about snow falling somewhere in this forum area...during May. 7" total. Edit...John had already posted the totals in the obs thread. Tomorrow AM will be chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Another roller coaster week may be ahead. Looks quite warm midweek; then, another weekend cool down brought by another southern bowling ball. Week of May 15th should feature a warming trend. If you believe the weeklies, yet another cool front weekend of May 20 but probably weaker deeper into May. NWS weekly charts above seem reasonable esp from May 22 forward. Looks warm in the Southeast downstream of that Rockies trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 13, 2017 Author Share Posted May 13, 2017 Trough looks stubborn for the East in the LR ensembles and ops. Heat builds eastward and then the heat ridge returns to some degree on the West coast. I can deal with that pattern after last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 15, 2017 Author Share Posted May 15, 2017 LR continues to be interesting as the major ensembles build heat eastward only to have a trough w BN temps drive southeastward out of the Plains. I am all for keeping the heat at arms length for as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 On 5/13/2017 at 7:03 PM, Carvers Gap said: Trough looks stubborn for the East in the LR ensembles and ops. Heat builds eastward and then the heat ridge returns to some degree on the West coast. I can deal with that pattern after last summer. Agreed. I don't mind short-lived heat. And a changeable pattern usually means plenty of rain associated with progressive fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 Trough in East this coming week should verify as long as forecast, rare this time of year. Couple shortwaves dive into the back side, which should help anchor it. Maybe midweek the Carolina Coast can get some weather action as one wave rounds the base, but that's not our region. Here I'm just thinking, would be nice in winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 21, 2017 Share Posted May 21, 2017 Certainly dont look like a warm pattern for right now.SOI is more Ninaish pattern today, 17+.Wind burst west of the IDL is still ongoing.ENSO 1+2 today is -0.6.No real big severe look in Asia for us right now other than possible more below heights in the Valley than above.Is this really late spring?Highs Wednesday might not make it above 70 in Mid Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 22, 2017 Author Share Posted May 22, 2017 Thanks to Jeff and Jax for their comments. Agree. Looks like a nice pattern upcoming. Seasonal temps w a few cooler days thrown in. Heat builds out West....you know that will roll eastward at some point. But for now, looks like we may steal a few weeks of spring cool and push them into early summer. The ensembles still like a weak trough in the East LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Quite the change from last summer. Reminds me of the huge difference between the summer of 2012 and 2013. 2012 was blazing hot, & 2013 was it's opposite--very cool and wet. I'll take a repeat of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 We'll see... it's definitely wetter this year than last.. But May will still likely come in AN temp wise for the 15th straight month in most East Tn locations. Last summer's long streak of 70+ lows was miserable though. I'll suffer through some dry heat spells, with change up rainy days as long as last summer doesn't repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 I expect another hot summer, but more like 2015 than 2016 crazy. My last post is just about this work week. Trough with short-waves digging in stays around a few days instead of just 36 hours. Weekend looks warm and rainy. I'm starting to buy into an unsettled pattern, so adequate rainfall, for June. Still warmer than normal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.