JayCee Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 From the look of the radar, and webcams around, I think there has been a bit of downsloping for areas in the Tennessee foothills today. I've seen some sun peaking out around Greenville, TN. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/greeneville-tn/ As the low pressure pivots around to our south, that should eliminate much of the downsloping, and rainfall rates will increase in the foothills later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Euro backed off the system today in Asia,which it was showing a system into the 2nd week of May possibly for us.Looks like right now if it don't change we should be looking at a ridge into the upper plains and OV ,GWO is now showing a almost -3.5 sigma in the long range,so a potential for some below seasonal temps looks possible into the 2nd wk of May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Downslope flow continues this morning across East TN--clearing out the clouds around the Tri-Cities, while it remains cloudy down the valley around Knoxville, and farther west in Middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Final rainfall totals for the past seven days. Some truly hefty amounts. The North Fork of the Holston is ripping. The South Fork has submerged Riverfront Park. Crazy amounts of water after seeing both rivers bone dry last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 We will see...but JayCee brings forth some interesting thoughts on what all of this moisture means in the LR. Will be interesting to see if this shakes-up the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Trees and all things green are loving the recent rains. But I've also noticed that despite all the heavy rain, local streams and creeks are already falling quickly around here--a testament to how dry the sub-surface soil actually was. The soil and trees were obviously still thirsty, and hopefully the water table is now recovering from last year's extreme and exceptional drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Didn't know where to put this, but a client of mine captured the best (non photoshopped or re-touched) photo of a rainbow I have ever seen from the back deck of their home near the Bristol Motor Speedway. She shared it with WCYB and they put their stamp on it. Simply amazing! I will also echo the sentiments regarding just how quickly standing water has been sucked into the ground. It's hard to find a puddle anywhere and we ALMOST practiced baseball yesterday afternoon, not even 24 hours after the rain stopped. We probably need several more good rains over the coming month or two to "feel" and be normal again...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 The reservoirs up here are starting to go to full pool or just above...see S Holston and Watauga. Cherokee is above its levels from last summer already. We better hope we don't get any more heavy rainfall area wide. A writer for Little River Outfitters mentioned that TVA is probably holding back water to keep the TN River from flooding. We got hammered over here. Reports that the North Fork of the Holston submerged an expensive crane near Weber City where a bridge was being replaced. You see that, 1234? Water here is slowly receeding. The North Fork is still raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 The POAMA has backed down on Nino,by it's standards there won't be one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 26, 2017 Author Share Posted April 26, 2017 Pattern change or relaxation of the pattern? What do you all say? Looks like a switch to BN temps in the East by early to middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Early end to severe season, not by death ridge, but by death trough. I think we've flushed more moderate risks than Kansas has choked Elite Eights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 AO and NAO both diving deep into negative territory as a strong Greenland Block develops and sends cool air into eastern NA by late next week. If only it had happened 3 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 3 hours ago, JayCee said: AO and NAO both diving deep into negative territory as a strong Greenland Block develops and sends cool air into eastern NA by late next week. If only it had happened 3 months ago. Yeah both dive down moderately into negative territory. As we head further into late spring/summer these two components will not have a direct effect on our weather. But early May we can see the effects still. Loops like a deep trough with maybe a lot more rainfall also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 On 4/26/2017 at 4:57 PM, Carvers Gap said: Pattern change or relaxation of the pattern? What do you all say? Looks like a switch to BN temps in the East by early to middle of next week. The SOI has been up and down.Pattern looks up and down.The Euro is even showing life and maybe getting into phase 2 in the long range,this would be a severe phase though it looks closer to the COD so it's weak signals.There's no signs of any sustained heat ridge right now if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Last May was nice too, only slightly above avg mean temps. Although it was dry and was sort of a preamble to the significant SE drought that happened afterward. Feels different this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 15 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah both dive down moderately into negative territory. As we head further into late spring/summer these two components will not have a direct effect on our weather. But early May we can see the effects still. Loops like a deep trough with maybe a lot more rainfall also. After last year's drought and fires, I'm all for keeping the rain train on track! Along with the cooler weather, too. It's going to feel way too hot for April today with temps pushing 90! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 29, 2017 Author Share Posted April 29, 2017 Looks like a mean trough wants to set-up in the East. Looking like a pattern change. Ridge out West w a somewhat transient pattern w troughs pushing East. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks like a mean trough wants to set-up in the East. Looking like a pattern change. Ridge out West w a somewhat transient pattern w troughs pushing East. I like it. I noticed JB is thinking the same thing--and says this could be the coolest May since 2008 in the East. I'm all for it after months and months of well above normal temperatures. So far, I'm liking this Spring over 2016. Plenty of moisture and storms, yet no major or destructive severe weather. It's quite the blessing over last year's heat and drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 29, 2017 Author Share Posted April 29, 2017 31 minutes ago, JayCee said: I noticed JB is thinking the same thing--and says this could be the coolest May since 2008 in the East. I'm all for it after months and months of well above normal temperatures. So far, I'm liking this Spring over 2016. Plenty of moisture and storms, yet no major or destructive severe weather. It's quite the blessing over last year's heat and drought. My WxBell account expired about a week ago. So, I can't see Weeklies or read any of JB's work. However, the last Weeklies that I did see and the current LR ensembles and ops are pretty adamant that the East cools off and that the West really warms-up. Hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 29, 2017 Author Share Posted April 29, 2017 Now, whether this is a long term pattern shift or just a relaxation of the long-lasting, dominant western trough pattern...I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 Isolated, yet intense, storms are developing in the foothills today. One just grazed me to the east, and it had some pretty vivid lightning and loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Broke the record here today from 1894 when it is was recorded at 90,hit 91 today.Possibly should break the overnight high set back in 1899 of 68,southerly winds from the south, don't see us falling below 70.Been a few records broken here so far this year in the Mid Valley. Not sure what to think about the LR,but the weeklies hint at seasonable to BN.Euro is showing life getting out of the COD and possibly getting into 2 by looking at some of the ensembles in the LR,the GEFS just plain loves ph8 and it's been stuck there in the LR for several days.Asia, in he LR, looks like below heights into Korea and Japan with no big systems being shown right now.The GWO though is going into a negative deviation in phase 2,a more Nina like pattern in around six days give or take,this would suggest a SER around this time frame possibly. The NAO as said up above is going negative which should keep the storm suppressed further S after this one tomorrow which could possibly give you guys in the east a more severe threat but it goes into a more = after that.But anyways,by the looks the next few days our weather will be more or less influenced by a strenghtening CCKW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 SOI is up and down.Recent drops seems to suggest a possible severe threat upcoming into the 3-4 week of May with a more Nino look.Euro shows the MJO out of the COD into phase 2 with some ensembles trying to get into 3,analogs when it gets into 3 is a wet pattern in the Valley.Up and down pattern by the looks today.No signs of any drought anyways upcoming 20 Apr 20171011.991012.05-17.67-4.25-2.0421 Apr 20171012.831011.50-7.64-4.87-1.8922 Apr 20171013.491010.851.80-5.03-1.5123 Apr 20171012.161010.25-3.46-5.33-1.2924 Apr 20171011.641010.80-11.18-6.04-1.3525 Apr 20171012.451010.30-1.73-6.39-1.4526 Apr 20171014.111009.7014.56-6.10-1.3627 Apr 20171014.631009.6518.67-5.48-1.1128 Apr 20171013.581011.100.65-5.68-1.0729 Apr 20171012.831011.85-10.17-5.92-1.1330 Apr 20171011.861012.35-20.77-6.31-1.36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: SOI is up and down.Recent drops seems to suggest a possible severe threat upcoming into the 3-4 week of May with a more Nino look.Euro shows the MJO out of the COD into phase 2 with some ensembles trying to get into 3,analogs when it gets into 3 is a wet pattern in the Valley.Up and down pattern by the looks today.No signs of any drought anyways upcoming 20 Apr 20171011.991012.05-17.67-4.25-2.0421 Apr 20171012.831011.50-7.64-4.87-1.8922 Apr 20171013.491010.851.80-5.03-1.5123 Apr 20171012.161010.25-3.46-5.33-1.2924 Apr 20171011.641010.80-11.18-6.04-1.3525 Apr 20171012.451010.30-1.73-6.39-1.4526 Apr 20171014.111009.7014.56-6.10-1.3627 Apr 20171014.631009.6518.67-5.48-1.1128 Apr 20171013.581011.100.65-5.68-1.0729 Apr 20171012.831011.85-10.17-5.92-1.1330 Apr 20171011.861012.35-20.77-6.31-1.36 Yeah today's guidance looks good for more rainfall and much cooler weather this next week into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah today's guidance looks good for more rainfall and much cooler weather this next week into the weekend. Thought the SOI would would come in better than it did,better graphs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 CFS basically shows no Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Not much rain with the most recent system here, but plenty of wind. Power went out twice during the afternoon due to trees falling on power lines. No storms to speak of--just wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog660 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Recorded a gust to 32 MPH a couple times. Not really strong, but pretty good for the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Rain and 50's forecast by Friday. Big, big change from last weekend. And a mean trough sets up over the New England area by this weekend, introducing the TN Valley to a cool, drier northwest flow. A breath of fresh air, and some real Spring-like weather in the 60's, once the next system departs, instead of the 90's we endured last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 The GFS is making me nervous about Saturday night's temps. Please tell me we're not going to hit 31 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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