Carvers Gap Posted April 13, 2017 Author Share Posted April 13, 2017 15 hours ago, Ranger said: Carvers or Jax, are you seeing a relapse of the drought conditions for the remaining Spring into the Summer season? I know parts of the TN Valley are still technically in drought even here in NW Ga, but we've had significant rainfall since late November. A lot of the creeks and rivers are flowing nicely and the local ponds are back to full pool. I would like to know if the past 4-5 months was just a pause and we're going back to much dryer conditions or are we going to continue to see a wetter pattern? I will claim no expertise in this area. Just looked at the drought monitor map. True that there are still areas of our forum region included on it. So, IMO we are not out of the woods. Streams up here are full as well, but the ground dries really quickly after a rain which tells me we aren't quite where we need to be. I never like to see a spring with long dry spells even if rainfall is nornal. Seems to have a tendency at times to build on itself. Maybe Jeff or Mr Bob can also comment. They are pretty much experts in LR and seasonal precip trends. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/20170411/20170411_usdm.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 I don't like the trends....It seems as if we may be looking another hot dry summer squarely in the face. Of interest, the Euro monthlies for April have a significant precip anomaly over the southeast in June. Hard to see it happening at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 On 3/24/2017 at 9:17 AM, nrgjeff said: Unfortunately it looks hot again. I'm tired of it too but heat happens. Still lots of warmth in the global atmosphere. SSTs are warm everywhere too. Looks like the great Pacific Ocean heat sink of a several years is no longer. Attempt to go multi-decade cooler failed miserably, actually starting a few years back. Persistent above normal SSTs all over the Pac Basin is keeping the global amto warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 13, 2017 Author Share Posted April 13, 2017 Thanks, Mr Bob. Jeff, forgot about that post. Thanks as well. Hopefully this does not drag well into fall like last year. I can handle summer heat for the normal duration, Seems like last year we started w significant heat departures in April, and they lasted deep into fall. Honestly, if I knew there would not be another frost...I would put my garden in now. By last August my garden was fried by heat and drought. If I had started earlier, it would have done better. I am hoping that things flip....I have little evidence other than hope. Ranger, good info in those posts...And good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 13, 2017 Author Share Posted April 13, 2017 For our Nino following folks, what is the most probable level that this reaches? I know Jax has mentioned a few models are fairly strong. And if it is a super, does a Modoki even help next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog660 Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Not again! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 Looks like a few days of seasonable temperatures after the Saturday front, perhaps April 23-25. Then April 26-30 we look to rebuild a SER with a trough slowly digging into the Plains. So, enjoy cooler days Sunday through early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 7 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Looks like a few days of seasonable temperatures after the Saturday front, perhaps April 23-25. Then April 26-30 we look to rebuild a SER with a trough slowly digging into the Plains. So, enjoy cooler days Sunday through early next week. no hail marys for may? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 18, 2017 Author Share Posted April 18, 2017 Quite a big shift in the Weeklies in the LR, weeks 4-6. On average, almost normal temps for the forum area on average w some BN for the far western areas near Memphis. Still very dry. Something will have to give. Seems a bit troughy over the nation's midsection and the East. Ridge and heat over the West. Dry and troughy usually don't go together. Honestly, we have seen the Weeklies do this multiple times and be wrong. I hope for once they are correct...regarding temps and trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Weeklies do show lots of normal temps even nationwide after this week. First of May should be warm again, but the normal train really rolls starting week 4 as Carvers notes. Spring season normal usually means variable. Clusters show some stronger patterns both directions. Again could be variability and timing more than pure disagreement. Some of the cooler charts could be in response to a westerly wind burst over the tropical Pacific. SOI drops off a bit which is an El Nino response. NAO even tries to show negative. I bet the model is responding too much. Cooler signals should be shorter duration than shown. White SSTs are warmer than normal, the broad ATMO is slow to transition out of La Nina. I'll go warmer than shown. May hail Mary? Should be storm systems with each trough/ridge. However nothing stands out. Saturday looks like a mess, veered off, or both. May 1 warm spell might end with a front but no details this far out. Posting in the main pattern thread, not severe thread, by deliberate design. I know, yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Been an extremely wet week, a nice downpour with some thunder just rolled across. Hopefully the dry pattern never quite locks in this summer/fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 The Weeklies continue to advertise a return to seasonal temps during the week 2.5-7 timeframe for the forum area. The dry signal was less pronounced this run....I hope that is true. BN temps are centered in the nation's midsection until late in the run . Western heat ridge is the dominant feature beginning week 3. It somewhat suggests that feature rolls forward into the Plains very late, maybe week 6 or 7. TIFWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 More heavy rain yesterday and now today. Around 4 inches on the week so far with probably another inch or two in the next 24 hours or so based on the radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 I recorded 1.87" of rain in late evening thunderstorms yesterday. A line of storms moved north from the high mountains, and it merged with another line of storms moving in from Knoxville right over parts of Sevier county. The rain fell fast and furious. Looks like we'll kiss whatever is left of the drought good bye this week (at least in the short-term) if these rain amounts verify. Creeks around my house are running at bank-full, so I'd say flooding is a good bet over parts of our region this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 351 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...For early this morning, areas of convection is moving northeast across the Tennessee valley due a series of waves moving along a frontal boundary over the area. The HRRR model shows these area of convection slowly weakening this morning and mainly staying over the northern half of the area. Active weather next 48 hours with a series of jet streaks enhancing the divergence aloft over the area. A frontal boundary across the Tennessee valley will be strengthen by the circulation around these jets. Fronto-genetic forcing along with increasing moisture/instability this afternoon will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPES of 1500 J/kg and PWs around 1.4 inches (which is near the daily max) will produce very heavy rains with the storms. Enough hail CAPE and mid-level dry air/850mb jet of 35kts to produce hail up to quarter size and potential of damaging winds with the stronger storms. For tonight, approaching and deepening upper trough over the mid- section of the nation will once again enhance the divergence aloft over the Tennessee Valley. Even though the frontal boundary will move south of the area, the pressure falls associated with the jet dynamics will produce an inverted surface trough across the southern Appalachians late Saturday night and Sunday. This boundary will focus around round of showers with heavy rains. Due to the persistent heavy rains, training of cells along these boundaries and climatology very high PWs, there is a potential of flash flooding. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch for flash flooding for the entire area from mid-afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Later shifts will need to especially watch the burn scar area in Sevier county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 looking at the nam and this am 6z run the valley looks to be 3-5 inches of rain in next 48 hrs. all models are showing it pours here in TN valley and mountains. from nws in Morristown ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Southwest North Carolina, East Tennessee, and Southwest Virginia, including the following areas, in Southwest North Carolina, Cherokee and Clay. In East Tennessee, Anderson, Bledsoe, Blount Smoky Mountains, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke Smoky Mountains, East Polk, Grainger, Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Loudon, Marion, McMinn, Meigs, Morgan, NW Blount, North Sevier, Northwest Carter, Northwest Cocke, Northwest Greene, Northwest Monroe, Rhea, Roane, Scott TN, Sequatchie, Sevier Smoky Mountains, Southeast Carter, Southeast Greene, Southeast Monroe, Sullivan, Unicoi, Union, Washington TN, and West Polk. In Southwest Virginia, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington, and Wise. * From 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through Sunday afternoon * One to three inches of rainfall will be common across much of the area through Sunday with localized amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. * The persistent rainfall will saturate the ground across much of the area. The additional heavy rains could lead to flooding of roadways, poor drainage areas, low lying areas and small rivers and streams across the region. Mud slides are possible, especially across the burn scar areas of Sevier County, Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 April showers,something we haven't seen in the last few years,thunderstorm ongoing right now here.If the Euro is anywhere right look for another big dumpage next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 CPC which backed down on an Nino last update is back to almost 70% once again into ASO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Cool temps + moderate rain + low, slow thunder = PERFECT sleeping weather tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Pattern looks the same upcoming into the 1st wk of May.Potential looks like some good rain and possibly some severe storms.Past this time frame looks like some changes upcoming.Like Carver mentioned on the weeklies, it don't look that bad,right now.GWO though is hinting at phase 2 with a -3 sigma,some strong signals of a ridge in the east upcoming.Sure looks like a potential warmth though into wk2 of May,Asia looks more zonal upcoming,less storms.Possibly tho this wont last long.Could see a return of a more wet pattern into wk 3 of May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 41 minutes ago, JayCee said: Cool temps + moderate rain + low, slow thunder = PERFECT sleeping weather tonight. heh,i was thinking the same thing.A couple Stoves "Happy Waters",we're good to go.Should be able to turn the AC off and open the windows tonight.Dew point depressions we could even see some thick fog tonight and make it a London night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 4 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Pattern looks the same upcoming into the 1st wk of May.Potential looks like some good rain and possibly some severe storms.Past this time frame looks like some changes upcoming.Like Carver mentioned on the weeklies, it don't look that bad,right now.GWO though is hinting at phase 2 with a -3 sigma,some strong signals of a ridge in the east upcoming.Sure looks like a potential warmth though into wk2 of May,Asia looks more zonal upcoming,less storms.Possibly tho this wont last long.Could see a return of a more wet pattern into wk 3 of May We need the wet pattern to continue as long as we can to stave off any potential for drought to settle back in. Last year the spigot turned off in early March and didn't turn back on til late Nov. It was probably the worst drought I've seen in my life. Like what I've been seeing lately with the current pattern...the later into Spring, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Jamstec shows a modoki in the tri-monthlies,DJF.But with a a rather dry look.Guess you could say be careful when you wish for a modoki http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 But it's colder than *bleep*in most of NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 3.31" of rain IMBY over the last two days. Ground saturated and rain still pouring this morning. Drought a memory at this point, and now flooding starting to occur in the small streams around the area, and in low lying fields. Worried about major mud slides in the mountain burned areas with another 1.-2 inches of rain still to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 hrr is hitting the central valley with 3-5 inches over the next 18 hrs we really gonna flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 26 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: hrr is hitting the central valley with 3-5 inches over the next 18 hrs we really gonna flood. I noticed the HRR shows the upper low basically sitting over mid-TN for the next 12 hours while sending a firehose of moisture into the Great Valley of East TN. Perfect setup for heavy rain and flooding. So far this month, I was running below normal with only 2 inches of rain. I've already more than doubled that in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 8 hours ago, Ranger said: We need the wet pattern to continue as long as we can to stave off any potential for drought to settle back in. Last year the spigot turned off in early March and didn't turn back on til late Nov. It was probably the worst drought I've seen in my life. Like what I've been seeing lately with the current pattern...the later into Spring, the better. Totally agree. The wetter we keep the soil into late Spring, the less likely we'll see intense drought this summer. It's difficult for a hot, dry stagnant high pressure to set up over an area with very wet soil. The wet soil and lush vegetation tempers any heat, as much of the solar energy is used up on evaporating the water in the ground and plants. Also, even if a high does develop overhead, thunderstorms have an easy time developing with plenty of soil moisture and humidity to work with--unlike last year when soils were drying out by May and June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 Quote MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0138 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1118 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN...NORTHERN GA...EXT SOUTHWEST VA...EXT WESTERN NC CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 231517Z - 232102Z SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SETUP WITH SHALLOW EMBEDDED CONVECTION MAY POSE ISOLATED FF CONCERN DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 CONUS VISIBLE IMAGERY DENOTES A STEADY UPTICK AND EXPANSION OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS E TN WITHIN THE GREATEST DIFFLUENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AS THE MEAN UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL TN. RAP ANALYSIS AND HRRR SUGGEST A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK SLANTWISE INSTABILITY UP TO 100-150 J/KG ADVECTING THROUGH THE WARM CONVEYOR (OF S AND SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW) ACROSS N GA INTO TN TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION. LOCAL 1HR OBSERVED TOTALS ARE IN THE .5"/HR RANGE CURRENTLY ACROSS SE TN THOUGH WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER DYNAMICS (INCREASED DIVERGENCE/DPVA) AND INSTABILITY...CELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FURTHER INCREASE AND WITH SATURATED PROFILES BELOW CLOUD BASE LIMITING LOSS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES...THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN RATES/1HR TOTALS VERY CLOSE TO ECLIPSING THE SUB 1" FFG ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FACING FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THESE ISOLATED ENHANCED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...MODERATE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE LONGER-TERM/SLOW RISE FLOODING CONCERNS WITH 1-2" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6HRS ACROSS E TN AND N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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