John1122 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'd take that in a heartbeat, loads up over my head for 4 inches. In any other winter at 36 hours out I'd be pretty darn stoked right now. This winter I can't gin up any enthusiasm for my back yard, any model run that's showed snow of more than an inch or two has been wrong this season no matter how close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The latest GFS while stubborn on the snow shows the low, further south and a little further west into the Pamilco Sound at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 There is a nice band of snow coming across North West Tennessee and Western Kentucky now, Folks who live on the borders might get a small surprise today at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: There is a nice band of snow coming across North West Tennessee and Western Kentucky now, Folks who live on the borders might get a small surprise today at some point. Unfortunately the freezing line is anything but level with latitude so in an hour or two the freezing line on radar will appear well into Indiana. The only people I see getting snowfall is in the climatologically favored regions late at night and that is really pushing it. NW flow will of course occur as well but it rarely amounts to anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozzyman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Here's to hoping that we'll be driving the final nails into this incredibly dull winter's coffin after tomorrow. Looks like somewhat seasonable temperatures will return later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Two straight nights of hard freezes coming up...hearing some reports that the storm was 50-75 miles west of guidance. The westward jog w a strong coastal is the real deal. The low in the Midwest messed-up the temp profile for us. Looks like nice 4-5 day warm-up beginning this weekend...and then another cool down, albeit brief in comparison to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 Had flurries pretty much all day today. Didn't amount to much. Just a bit of white on top of my windshield wipers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 BOM has a Nino watch.Strong burst by the IDL is holding everything back,regions 1+2 is +2.4 anoms,it's waiting to bust out.Most of the NMME'S show Nino forming into April like the BOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 15, 2017 Author Share Posted March 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: BOM has a Nino watch.Strong burst by the IDL is holding everything back,regions 1+2 is +2.4 anoms,it's waiting to bust out.Most of the NMME'S show Nino forming into April like the BOM What do you think, Jax....weak to moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 15, 2017 Share Posted March 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What do you think, Jax....weak to moderate? Looks moderate to strong right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 15, 2017 Author Share Posted March 15, 2017 After a bitterly cold day in the forum region(wind chills here in Kingsport ranged in the single digits this AM to lower 20s this afternoon), tonight will harbor the concerns that many have expressed regarding the Feb spring warmth...a long duration overnight hard freeze w lows in the mid-teens. This would be impressive for all but the coldest climo days of Jan. Here is the AFD from MRX... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday/... A cold, northwest wind will continue reinforcing a bitterly cold arctic air mass. The combination of a clear sky and this cold air will allow temperatures to plummett after sunset well below freezing -- eventually bottoming out into the mid teens to lower 20s across the Valley. A freeze warning is in effect to address this potential for a widespread, killing freeze. In addition, winds along the East Tennessee Mountains will remain in the 10 to 15 mph range, and combined with bitterly cold air cause wind chill values to drop to dangerously low levels in the -5 to -15 degree range. By late morning these products will expire as temperatures warm due to solar heating. A warmer day is expected as highs will peak in the 40s to lower 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Needs to slow down for severe season. Delays are good. Otherwise TNI will change to, I will cry. On 3/15/2017 at 11:27 AM, jaxjagman said: BOM has a Nino watch. Strong burst by the IDL is holding everything back,regions 1+2 is +2.4 anoms, it's waiting to bust out. Most of the NMME'S show Nino forming into April like the BOM Possibility of a moderate to strong El Nino would increase odds next winter is the 3rd mild one in a row. I know moderate can go either way, but consider it strong with the lingering warmth in the atmosphere around the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 16, 2017 Author Share Posted March 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Needs to slow down for severe season. Delays are good. Otherwise TNI will change to, I will cry. Possibility of a moderate to strong El Nino would increase odds next winter is the 3rd mild one in a row. I know moderate can go either way, but consider it strong with the lingering warmth in the atmosphere around the globe. I agree. Need it weak. ENSO forecasts can be fickle so I am hoping it backs off a bit. But after reading your thoughts, I can't disagree. What number on the index above would constitute a moderate event, 2.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Unfortunately only 1.0 to 1.5 is moderate. 2.0 would crush winter with Midwest warmth invading like Sherman. 38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I agree. Need it weak. ENSO forecasts can be fickle so I am hoping it backs off a bit. But after reading your thoughts, I can't disagree. What number on the index above would constitute a moderate event, 2.0. Maybe it'll be wrong. Believe the predictability wall is April-May, and this is still just March madness. Also might add the global atmosphere is actually still in a La Nina mode, considering MJO convection over Indonesia well west of El Nino favored areas. While SSTs are rising in the Nino regions, SSTs are also still above normal around Indonesia. Current cold snap is a quick aberration from the mild background state. Once some dateline tropical convection dies off and/or retreats to Indonesia, and the NAO rises, back to our warm routine. See if we can tee up some severe late next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 CanSIPS looks strong with the best convection around the IDL and severe into FL in Jan.Valley cool and wet Dec.,dry and warm Jan with the wild card month being around Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 So is it safe to put mater plants in the ground now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Seasonals are out today,latest IMME just came out shows a moderatre/strong Nino by Sept. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 13 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Needs to slow down for severe season. Delays are good. Otherwise TNI will change to, I will cry. Possibility of a moderate to strong El Nino would increase odds next winter is the 3rd mild one in a row. I know moderate can go either way, but consider it strong with the lingering warmth in the atmosphere around the globe. Looks like it's on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 JAMSTEC looks strong into fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I assume some sort of front sits across east Tennessee this evening. TYS is at 60, I'm at 47 and Morristown is 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, JayCee said: I assume some sort of front sits across east Tennessee this evening. TYS is at 60, I'm at 47 and Morristown is 44. Could be because of rain maybe,warm front lifting N into the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 2 hours ago, JayCee said: I assume some sort of front sits across east Tennessee this evening. TYS is at 60, I'm at 47 and Morristown is 44. Yeah, I noticed that earlier Jaycee. Posted it in the Obs thread. At the time, it was actually 41 in Morristown and 60 in Knoxville. Meanwhile, it was 39 at the house with heavy rain and 39 at TRI with heavy rain. I assume it had to do with the dewpoints being in the lower to mid 30s at the time, and the heavy precip falling was causing evaporative cooling. Kinda rare to see such a huge gradient though across the area. Interesting observation no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 12 hours ago, Jed33 said: Yeah, I noticed that earlier Jaycee. Posted it in the Obs thread. At the time, it was actually 41 in Morristown and 60 in Knoxville. Meanwhile, it was 39 at the house with heavy rain and 39 at TRI with heavy rain. I assume it had to do with the dewpoints being in the lower to mid 30s at the time, and the heavy precip falling was causing evaporative cooling. Kinda rare to see such a huge gradient though across the area. Interesting observation no doubt! I'd say you were right. Dewpoints were low when the rain started, and probably cooled us down on this side of the valley. It probably set up a warm front of sorts that Jax mentioned. It was interesting. Meanwhile, I recorded .86 of rain overnight. Needed rain to help us get out of this moderate-severe drought we remain in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 No doubt it was some nice rainfall. We needed it for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Not a horrid look,but i agree with what Jeff said up above and see what the models show in the next couple months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 19, 2017 Author Share Posted March 19, 2017 Models during the past couple of days depict a pronounced warming trend for the forum area for the next 2-3 weeks. Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Models during the past couple of days depict a pronounced warming trend for the forum area for the next 2-3 weeks. Spring! By the looks the next few weeks should bring in some decent amounts of rain this should help the soil out into the summer some what.Developing Nino we could possibly go dry into summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 La Nina summers seem hotter and drier at times, especially late summer. Nevertheless, a strong EL Nino will reduce any chance for rain from tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 I am fatigued by almost a year of "much above normal" months. Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 14 months here, bro... I'll take 2 more months AN, if the summer ends up BN though.. would be nice.. Like, not having Northern Florida-ish morning lows in Tennessee during Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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