Spring/Summer 2017 Pattern Discussion

[John1122]

The OP and the mean are almost in lock step there.  The OP actually has slightly more snow in our area over the whole period. 

[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies have flipped cold.  Every week is BN.  Not sure I have seen them that cold.  Ah, we'll see.  Now, back to the storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the afternoon ensembles...the GEFS, EPS, GEPS, and this past TR's Weeklies(which signaled this first) are now depicting a fairly chilly next sixteen days.  We will see if that holds.  If so, to steal a line, that is quite a turn of events. 

[AMZ8990]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just looking at the afternoon ensembles...the GEFS, EPS, GEPS, and this past TR's Weeklies(which signaled this first) are now depicting a fairly chilly next sixteen days.  We will see if that holds.  If so, to steal a line, that is quite a turn of events. 

I was looking at the same thing.  Middle of the week it's supposed to get down to 20 here.  It's definitely gonna put a dent in anything that might have already started to bloom.

[JayCee]

Point and click forecast has a low of 18 projected for my area Wednesday night.  Coldest air since January.

Disappointed we didn't see any precipitation with the departing system.  We are still in a moderate-severe drought in the valley, and even extreme showing back up in the far southeast part of the state.  This is one of our wettest months, so a missed opportunity at precipitation, whether rain or snow, is not a good thing. 

[weathertree4u]

24 minutes ago, JayCee said:

Point and click forecast has a low of 18 projected for my area Wednesday night.  Coldest air since January.

Disappointed we didn't see any precipitation with the departing system.  We are still in a moderate-severe drought in the valley, and even extreme showing back up in the far southeast part of the state.  This is one of our wettest months, so a missed opportunity at precipitation, whether rain or snow, is not a good thing. 

 

25 minutes ago, JayCee said:

Point and click forecast has a low of 18 projected for my area Wednesday night.  Coldest air since January.

Disappointed we didn't see any precipitation with the departing system.  We are still in a moderate-severe drought in the valley, and even extreme showing back up in the far southeast part of the state.  This is one of our wettest months, so a missed opportunity at precipitation, whether rain or snow, is not a good thing. 

That is awful! Though it has been wet here, it is noticeably drier than usual. I know the forum has discussed before but anyone have any projections what the Summer could look like? Would be interesting to say the least if the area faced more extreme heat as we did in August of 2007 which also had late freezes in March of that year

[PowellVolz]

That is awful! Though it has been wet here, it is noticeably drier than usual. I know the forum has discussed before but anyone have any projections what the Summer could look like? Would be interesting to say the least if the area faced more extreme heat as we did in August of 2007 which also had late freezes in March of that year

The late freeze I believe was in the middle of April. I remember by the end of March, most bermuda golf courses were just about green. I remember the freezes were around or just after Easter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Carvers Gap]

Looks unlikely that we get snow in the valleys(maybe a big thump in the mountains), but the 12z Euro looks like a hurricane off the MA and New England coast.  If you like weather, it is worth a look.  The NE is going to get hammered.

[Carvers Gap]

For NE TN/SW VA folks...I still think we are probably just outside of the window for snow, but the 18z NAM does get my attention.  This set-up for D.C. often swipes the NE corner of the forum area including SW VA.   I tend to think the NAM is a bit west, but the Euro was as well.  Probably a scenario where temps crash right into the back of the departing rain.  I think the mountains stand a chance of getting hammered.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the snow map.

[BlunderStorm]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For NE TN/SW VA folks...I still think we are probably just outside of the window for snow, but the 18z NAM does get my attention.  This set-up for D.C. often swipes the NE corner of the forum area including SW VA.   I tend to think the NAM is a bit west, but the Euro was as well.  Probably a scenario where temps crash right into the back of the departing rain.  I think the mountains stand a chance of getting hammered.

That was the scenario which came to mind when i was looking at previous runs of the nam. Honestly though it seems unlikely

[AMZ8990]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks unlikely that we get snow in the valleys(maybe a big thump in the mountains), but the 12z Euro looks like a hurricane off the MA and New England coast.  If you like weather, it is worth a look.  The NE is going to get hammered.

I have an Aunt who lives in Boston.  She said they are expecting 18 inches on Tuesday.  It's gonna be one heck of a snowstorm!

[AMZ8990]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks unlikely that we get snow in the valleys(maybe a big thump in the mountains), but the 12z Euro looks like a hurricane off the MA and New England coast.  If you like weather, it is worth a look.  The NE is going to get hammered.

It's crazy that their having storms like this on back to back weeks!!

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

That was the scenario which came to mind when i was looking at previous runs of the nam. Honestly though it seems unlikely

Here is the 18z para-NAM from WxBell.  (Had to delete the other post due to formatting issues).   Anyway...more than this scenario is probably unlikely, even improbable, but not out of the realm of reason.  Phase is probably a bit late for us, but I always watch slp systems near Hatteras as sometimes we can steal some flakes if they pull west at the last minute. 

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

I have an Aunt who lives in Boston.  She said they are expecting 18 inches on Tuesday.  It's gonna be one heck of a snowstorm!

Hurricane force winds in places.  My sister-in-law lives in Downeast Maine, and they have been hammered this winter.  What is crazy is that the pattern supports more than one storm for New England.  

[Carvers Gap]

MRX has me at 34 on Monday night w rain.  Close call.

[John1122]

They have me at 32 with rain/snow likely, 1/2 inch or less accumulation.

[Carvers Gap]

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

.LONG TERM...
Cold and cloudy weather will continue tomorrow
night as the front/low sweep through and move east of us.
Precipitation chances will continue during this time, but most
places will likely just see rain. In the valley temperatures near
the surface should remain warm enough to see all liquid, but we
could see some decent accumulations in the higher elevations of
the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Can`t rule out a little bit of
light snowfall in some of the northern valley locations during
the coldest parts of the night, but overall it looks like
temperatures will remain warm enough that the vast majority of the
population just sees rain with this event. Wrap- around moisture
could help continue very light sprinkle/flurry chances in far NE
Tennessee/SW Virginia (mostly the higher elevations) through
Tuesday night, but most places will see precipitation end by mid
day on Tuesday.

[BlunderStorm]

MRX forecast for me over the next 3 days 

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind around 5 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Monday

Rain likely, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday Night

Rain before 5am, then rain and snow likely. Low around 33. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday

Rain and snow showers likely before 8am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday Night

A chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10pm and 11pm, then a chance of snow showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 30.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 16.

[BlunderStorm]

 Latest run of the RGEM

[Carvers Gap]

Have done a bit more digging.  Most models are a bit west...they are not at a tipping point(like the NAM) where it would change the overall forecast for NE TN/ SW VA.  Still, close call.  From a model standpoint, tracks and amounts are pretty consistent.  Prob need a 50 mi shift west to make things interesting...seems a bit unlikely, but an interesting storm to track anyway as it is just a huge storm.  Maybe it is not a IMBY storm...but interesting nonetheless.

[1234snow]

Have done a bit more digging.  Most models are a bit west...they are not at a tipping point(like the NAM) where it would change the overall forecast for NE TN/ SW VA.  Still, close call.  From a model standpoint, tracks and amounts are pretty consistent.  Prob need a 50 mi shift west to make things interesting...seems a bit unlikely, but an interesting storm to track anyway as it is just a huge storm.  Maybe it is not a IMBY storm...but interesting nonetheless.

The precip shield won't be a problem for us this time it is just going to get those 850's to crash as quickly as possible toward the coast.

I liked the 18z NAM and how it dug the short wave further south. This made it a little colder at the surface. I've noticed most models are trying to hug more of the coast.

[BlunderStorm]

A deeper precipitation shield would be a plus though, we need as much time and cooling from rainfall and nightfall as possible, I also believe overcast skies would be a plus as well over the course of the day.

[1234snow]

A deeper precipitation shield would be a plus though, we need as much time and cooling from rainfall and nightfall as possible, I also believe overcast skies would be a plus as well over the course of the day.

I like your position better than anyone on the forum. The further Northeast the better on this one. I-81 corridor will be jackpot.

[Carvers Gap]

36 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

 

The precip shield won't be a problem for us this time it is just going to get those 850's to crash as quickly as possible toward the coast.

I liked the 18z NAM and how it dug the short wave further south. This made it a little colder at the surface. I've noticed most models are trying to hug more of the coast.

 

Yeah, I think the precip will be there.  The digging will indeed bring it westward.  Another item to consider is how much "Miller A" is going to be in the storm.   The more true it is as a Miller A...the better we do.  The Midwest energy is messing-up the temp profile as well.  Need it to be weaker or transfer earlier.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Hurricane force winds in places.  My sister-in-law lives in Downeast Maine, and they have been hammered this winter.  What is crazy is that the pattern supports more than one storm for New England.  

Wow, that's funny you mention that.  I used to live in topsham Maine when I was a kid.  My dad was In the navy and he got stationed out of Bath when they were building the ship he was gonna be on.  Winter's up there are a sight to behold.  Maine by it self is a really cool state as it is, the snow is just an added bonus!  I agree with you on the possibility of two storms this week up there too, it could turn dangerous real quick if that happens.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Wow, that's funny you mention that.  I used to live in topsham Maine when I was a kid.  My dad was In the navy and he got stationed out of Bath when they were building the ship he was gonna be on.  Winter's up there are a sight to behold.  Maine by it self is a really cool state as it is, the snow is just an added bonus!  I agree with you on the possibility of two storms this week up there too, it could turn dangerous real quick if that happens.

She sent me a pick of 4' of snow that they had  received in one week(this winter).  They received my seasonal average over a six hour time frame.  Also, the time change is throwing me off w the models coming out an hour later...lol.  No more late night Euros...not even sure I can make the GFS tonight.

[Carvers Gap]

Reading Bob Chill's and PSU's comments on the MA forum...a slower storm could allow the southern stream energy to be stronger.  The EPS @42 did have several members dragging their feet so to speak.

[1234snow]

Reading Bob Chill's and PSU's comments on the MA forum...a slower storm could allow the southern stream energy to be stronger.  The EPS @42 did have several members dragging their feet so to speak.

I agree. This would allow the heart of the storm to happen in the middle of the night or early morning hours. We need more of a Miller A instead of a Miller B scenario. This storm probably will be a Miller B type storm so we just need to wish for a quicker transfer to the coast.

[BlunderStorm]

0z NAM 30 hours out... and kuchera totals at 42 hours