Daniel Boone Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Been kind of keeping up with it Carver. If that block does setup we could be in business for maybe a quencher to the terribly disappointing winter snow wise. Although, if that pac pattern doesn't improve some, our snow thirst will probably not be quenched. Need a decent pna ridge in conjunction with the block to get it done (bonifide snowstorm), particularly this time of year, I.m.o.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 5, 2017 Author Share Posted March 5, 2017 Pretty cold combo of 12z EPS/Euro. Several hard freezes and a few flakes still on the table. I would think the mountains, not surprisingly, have yet to see their final accumulating snow. Looks like some cold spells in the forum area with cold rains and freezes behind those events. Not a given for sure, but on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Pretty cold combo of 12z EPS/Euro. Several hard freezes and a few flakes still on the table. I would think the mountains, not surprisingly, have yet to see their final accumulating snow. Looks like some cold spells in the forum area with cold rains and freezes behind those events. Not a given for sure, but on the table. You might be right,trying to figure out what this first system leaving Japan might do.Without any wave breaking this has the potential to be a trough into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Euro is strangely colder than the GFS, especially comparing Ensembles of each model. Canadian is all over the place; too much Molsen XXX 7.5% beer? If the milder solution were to verify, then Saturday Mid South storm chase! However I'm kind of hoping for the colder outcome. NC ski areas are in discount lift ticket season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 12z GFS goes bonkers over KY and VA. Shifted from Canton to Lexington. Here is a map simply because it is fun to look at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Significant ice was also shown on that 12z GFS run in southern KY, almost the entire length of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 There are days that make the weather fun...the 12z suite was interesting for sure including the Euro. Nice jog south w energy getting tapped in se TX at 132. Snow threat is generally KY to D.C., thought the Euro did move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Ice threat has been consistent in the transition zone, regardless of storm track, except for the goofy 12Z CMC. That ice would present a travel challenge on the snow chase side. Also somewhat consistent on the warm side is a lifting boundary in the Mid South or perhaps northwest Alabama. Low level winds are veered, but not relative to the WNW flow aloft. Turning with height is there, esp from 700 mb down. So, storm chase Saturday and snow chase Sunday? What a weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 It could turn into something interesting. If the storm track shifts south by another 100 miles that would put a lot of the Valley region in the frozen zone. It's really tough to that to happen in mid March, but isn't by any means unprecedented. We've seen heavy snows in early April in valley areas. Ice is more rare in my experience in March, not 100 percent sure I buy that aspect of it. Normally a system like this will produce heavy wet snow or heavy rain and the transition line is sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Ice threat has been consistent in the transition zone, regardless of storm track, except for the goofy 12Z CMC. That ice would present a travel challenge on the snow chase side. Also somewhat consistent on the warm side is a lifting boundary in the Mid South or perhaps northwest Alabama. Low level winds are veered, but not relative to the WNW flow aloft. Turning with height is there, esp from 700 mb down. So, storm chase Saturday and snow chase Sunday? What a weekend! Indeed. Hoping maybe the mountains see something up this way. Throw in conference tourneys, should be a fun week. Definitely a warm nose present on most models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The EPS was south of the op. Need timing to be perfect and the PV to be as strong or stronger than advertised to press this thing well south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 EPS snow mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Hoping for a continued south trend to get us into the heart of this thing . Sure would cheer up the snow starved in the area. On a side note John , Carver et al, I got the official average seasonal snowfall for Wise, Va; 52.6 inches ! Even higher than the 48" I last knew of. The time of record is 1981-2010. The Next scheduled update is 2020. Btw, where did you get that 23 at John ? This came from the official NWS records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Hoping for a continued south trend to get us into the heart of this thing . Sure would cheer up the snow starved in the area. On a side note John , Carver et al, I got the official average seasonal snowfall for Wise, Va; 52.6 inches ! Even higher than the 48" I last knew of. The time of record is 1981-2010. The Next scheduled update is 2020. Btw, where did you get that 23 at John ? This came from the official NWS records. From a site that said all its records came from NOAA using the 1981-2010 averages. 52.6 is extremely impressive. It's near what LeConte averages and LeConte is 4000 feet higher in the most favorable upslope spot in the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 What is the site John ? I can assure you that didn't come from "official" records. I spoke with the NWS personally. Are they the same ones with the le conte data as well ? Le contes average is much higher than that. High knob in Wise county (4,200 + feet) averages near 100 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The GFS is slowly marching southward with the snow run by run. 0z has the snow knocking at the door of the forum region. I am skeptical of it but I can't help but smile a little. Also, I have begun to see some flowers blooming and I can already sense the pollen levels rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: What is the site John ? I can assure you that didn't come from "official" records. I spoke with the NWS personally. Are they the same ones with the le conte data as well ? Le contes average is much higher than that. High knob in Wise county (4,200 + feet) averages near 100 inches. think Leconte's weather data is mostly from the Leconte Lodge caretakers... could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Couple of morning notes.... 1. The models continue to bring the snow axis for the discussed 120 hour storm southward. It has moved from Canton, OH, to just barely north of the TN border. The question, "When does the southward jog stop?" Spring can bring some big snows in narrow bands. Right now I like a generally horizontal axis of snow from KY to the VA coast. The higher elevations on the Plateau and spine of the Apps are in the game now w no adjustments, especially above 3000'. If the models continue the southern shift one could see some runs much like the 0z CMC. As a rule, I do not like depending on southward trends. But like John said, it can happen. Normally, it is nice to see the models w energy along the GOM and then catch the northwest jog. Some questions remain...will there be energy in SE TX that tries to phase and are the models a bit strung-out because they are still trying to put the pieces together? I am about 50/50 that something consolidates into a Miller A and/or hybrid vs the strung-out look. 2. The 46-day temp map on the Weeklies is normal to BN for the forum area. That has not been a common look for many months. Some cold weeks embedded. Generally looks like a pattern that is very back-and-forth w warm weeks and cold weeks. Looks like spring. There might be some chances for late, high elevation snows just based on the overall look. Bowling ball low season will start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 One additional Weeklies note...they are showing the forum are w 1.5-3" AN for rain. West TN, northern MS, and northern AL are modeled especially rainy during the next 46 days. One bullseye is just west of Jackson, TN, and another tiny bullseye is in northwest AL. Good call by Jeff w his initial thoughts about spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 The storm continues to be interesting. How far south will it go on the models before pulling it back north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Here is 12z GFS the snow map...south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 To echo some folks in the SE forum...the CMC is getting the look of a lead wave followed by a Miller A. The lead wave snows along the TN/KY border. It interacts w a piece of energy in the GOM. Then, another piece comes out of the northern stream behind the coastal and tries to phase. It is a good example of how a low in the GL region can mess-up a coastal low...still, that is prob not a correct solution. To me, the models are torn on which piece of energy to emphasize, how to handle the northern stream energy, and whether to consolidate to a coastal low. Crazy to even be talking about this on March 7 after a mediocre winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It's honestly almost unbelievable that this could happen after the heat wave winter. But it's getting really close and is in the model wheelhouse so to speak. We should be to the point that there should not be any more major shifts but as always 50-100 miles makes all the difference in the world on almost every potential winter system in our region. The 12z euro hasn't came out yet, but the 12z GFS was the furthest north of the models. The 00z Euro wasn't far from the Canadian track. The bottom line will be track and a cold source, the track seems to be getting better with each run, and unlike a couple of gulf track lows last month, this one seems to have some cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I've not seen it, but someone on another forum said the Euro was blasting Northern Tn/Southern KY with snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I've not seen it, but someone on another forum said the Euro was blasting Northern Tn/Southern KY with snow this run. I show 6-9" for I-40 northward and back to I-75. Good look, but then gets strung out and wonky. I wonder if this is evolving into a lead wave w a Miller A just behind. Not sure that is the final look. Would not be surprised to see that front wave weaken and the GOM energy form a strong coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 17 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: What is the site John ? I can assure you that didn't come from "official" records. I spoke with the NWS personally. Are they the same ones with the le conte data as well ? Le contes average is much higher than that. High knob in Wise county (4,200 + feet) averages near 100 inches. I finally found a legit academic source. Wise has a long term average of 45 inches, but it's actually 52 in the 30 year cycle due to a 124 inch season landing in there. LeConte was well over what I'd seen as well. It was reported to be 72 inches. It's actually 114. That all makes sense. 3000 feet here averages 40+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I show 6-9" for I-40 northward and back to I-75. Good look, but then gets strung out and wonky. I wonder if this is evolving into a lead wave w a Miller A just behind. Not sure that is the final look. Would not be surprised to see that front wave weaken and the GOM energy form a strong coastal. I saw a March 9th-12th 1960 comparison by a met. That was a major snow in the region. 12 inches here, close to 2 feet in Kentucky. Not sure how the rest of the area did with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 New thread for "whatever" comes our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: I saw a March 9th-12th 1960 comparison by a met. That was a major snow in the region. 12 inches here, close to 2 feet in Kentucky. Not sure how the rest of the area did with that one. Wow! Would be crazy to meet norms in my area w a near record warm winter. Not sure about 1960 here...but it is certainly nice to see something to track even if March storms are fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 The 18z GFS 16 day clown map is too good to pass up. It has two blizzards and a decent snowstorm for people of the EC....a myriad of chances. Probably too good to be true but too much fun not to share. You know the rules...take w a grain of salt but it was interesting to see the potential. If it is one of my last snow maps of the season, might as well make it a good one. That is a glacier. March Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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