nrgjeff Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 My dewpoint is about to drop below 60, Hallelujah! Next 10 days high temps look very mild. Lows may be up during the rainy period though. See if we can really get that low humidity cool front to verify next week after the Gulf slopfest departs. CFS wants to cancel July but I'm not buying. Euro weeklies trend week 3-4 back to normal or slight above esp after the Fourth of July. Frankly they have both performed poorly. Likely the anomalously strong Pacific jet is throwing off the models. Even at the 11-15 day period, verification is horrendous lately. Remember when next week was supposed to be a SER? Now looks like a Tennessee Valley trough, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Tropical storm Cindy has formed the 12 euro brings it straight across Tennessee didn't see a thread for this so if needs moved fee free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 20, 2017 Author Share Posted June 20, 2017 Been a decent summer for temps and water...quite the reversal compared to last summer. My garden looks like a jungle. Last year it was "done" after the third week in July. This year, it won't be full throttle until then. Peppers and tomatoes are about 2-3 weeks behind last year. Rain and May cool spells kept my soil temps down. Last year, it fried. As for July, just really rare for that month not to be hot. So, I agree w Jeff that it will be warm...maybe on a seasonal scale this time around. August is in that boat as well. MrWolfe brings up some interesting info. Heard Mark Reynolds from WJHL mention that this weekend might include a tropical feed. Also noticed TVA upped their projections on water releases from SoHo...unless I am misremembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 20, 2017 Author Share Posted June 20, 2017 Probably time sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Here is 5 day rain forecast probably will change a little but I think East TN looking for 2-4 inches of rain starting Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 21, 2017 Author Share Posted June 21, 2017 Moving reasonably quick per NHC. I have not looked at the afternoon model runs closely. 12z GEM is stout w rainfall. 12z GFS is a significant west TN rainfall event and into southern KY. Just glanced at the 12z Euro and it looks similar to the GFS. Western half of the state sees 2-4" from roughly Nashville west. Then, precip streaks along the KY/TN border. Big rain event for KY as well per the Euro. E TN is .5-2" as we get dryslotted or downslope for both? NE TN and SW VA border gets a bit more per the Euro. Northern Alabama and northern MS get a general 1.5-4" rain. Latest track brings Cindy's remnants on a track from just SW of Memphis to Marion, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Tonight's 46 day Weeklies continue w their depiction of AN precip (skewed by the next few days) and normal to BN temps for the forum area. Not saying I agree w BN temps, but just giving my take on their look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 At TRI we hit 90 degrees 10 times last June. This June....zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 Heading towards July 1st and my next 7 days don't have a single 80 degree high in the forecast. The last time we did this in summer after a very warm winter we ended up having a very snowy following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 Weeklies, both CFS and Euro, are certainly not hot for the next few weeks into the core of summer. Yup we can debate the BN but the good news is MA is pretty much off the table. Looks normal with occasional slight above. I can deal with some low 90s and I absolutely do not miss all those upper 90s last year. No beast ridge should promote normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 So far, this has been a very good spring/summer weather-wise--and it's spectacular when compared to last year. Decent rain, mild temps, and frequent breaks from the high humidity (like the current one). I have few complaints about a summer where I have the windows open more than I use the air conditioner. It's so nice to hear the tress rustling in the wind, and the occasional bird chirping in the evening light, instead of the hum of the air conditioner trying to keep the house cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 26, 2017 Author Share Posted June 26, 2017 Today's 46 day Weeklies for the forum area...seasonal temps w some slightly BN. Though slightly AN is nearby. Should wash out as normal per this run. Precip is normal-ish w some splotchy dry anomalies beginning to show. I don't like that look. Thought the western heat ridge does appear to be a consistent feature w the exception of week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Today's 46 day Weeklies for the forum area...seasonal temps w some slightly BN. Though slightly AN is nearby. Should wash out as normal per this run. Precip is normal-ish w some splotchy dry anomalies beginning to show. I don't like that look. Thought the western heat ridge does appear to be a consistent feature w the exception of week 2 Some areas nearby and IMBY will probably end June below normal in precip. While TYS and areas west of there have had normal to above normal rainfall, areas east of there near the foothills of Sevier, Cocke and parts of Jefferson County have had less rainfall. I've only had 2.10" so far in June. The saving grace has been the slightly BN temps keeping evaporation rates lower, and stressing vegetation less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog660 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 Some areas nearby and IMBY will probably end June below normal in precip. While TYS and areas west of there have had normal to above normal rainfall, areas east of there near the foothills of Sevier, Cocke and parts of Jefferson County have had less rainfall. I've only had 2.10" so far in June. The saving grace has been the slightly BN temps keeping evaporation rates lower, and stressing vegetation less. I have 4.44" for the month so far with a chance of showers tomorrow. Storm total from last week was 1.94". If I'm correct, I think I'm about 0.50" BN.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 11 hours ago, bigdog660 said: I have 4.44" for the month so far with a chance of showers tomorrow. Storm total from last week was 1.94". If I'm correct, I think I'm about 0.50" BN. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk I'm in hopes a front stalling nearby this weekend will give me a good soaking rainfall. I actually need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 I've had around 7 inches of rain this month. It's pretty much rebuilt the water table. There's been no blistering heat, 86 on June 14th is my high for the year. 1/3rd of met summer over and plenty of moisture and no heat is a pretty good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 28, 2017 Author Share Posted June 28, 2017 With this recent cool spell, TRI is now -.2 for June temps w a chance to finish slightly BN for the month. At the very least, it has been pleasant as far as summer goes. Only 2" of rain at the airport which is about 1.45" BN. As Jaycee pointed out earlier, the closer the Smokies that you get, the lesser the totals. Though to be sure, we needed to dry out in Kingsport. Now, that may be too much of a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 28, 2017 Author Share Posted June 28, 2017 I agree, John. It has been awesome this month. After last summer, this has been a great break from those sweltering temps. We were out fishing on the South Holston last night and had to hustle in as one of my younger kiddos was getting cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Think we're pretty solid here in CHA for a BN temp month.. it's still gonna be close though. Might as well root for 2 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 30, 2017 Author Share Posted June 30, 2017 Weeklies continue insisting w BN temps to normal for the next 46 days. Actually, this run depicts a stronger BN temp anomaly from wk 3 onward. AN precip for the time frame. Has been a very consistent look for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 CFS and Euro both agree pretty well on the benign temperature regime. Week 1-2 show close to normal, but I think slight above. Still, despite climo, might not beat the mid-June temps. Weeks 3-4 hard to deny the slight below normal temps. I favor around normal, unless we get a buffet line of moisture out of the Gulf like now and/or mid-latitude fronts. There's the precip. Weeklies tend to do best during the heart of summer, so one would think we can believe the forecast. Might have to look to August if you want any real heat. Personally I'm fine with the current regime. Last year felt like Texas. I prefer the Tennessee feel this year. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 "benign temperature regime"-- starting a church in honor of that phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Most of the Valley has been running below norms since 5-31,with a few exceptions here and there slightly just above.Not even sure with these counties slightly above you'd tell the difference with relative mild humidity unlike we've seen in the past couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 4, 2017 Author Share Posted July 4, 2017 Weeklies are a hair warmer than the last one, but nearly the same as my last report. It is worthy of note that temps for northern NA to the pole are BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 5, 2017 Author Share Posted July 5, 2017 Water rescue under way... http://wate.com/2017/07/05/as-many-as-40-trapped-at-cummins-falls-state-park/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Water rescue under way... http://wate.com/2017/07/05/as-many-as-40-trapped-at-cummins-falls-state-park/ That's wild,did they all get out ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 6, 2017 Author Share Posted July 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: That's wild,did they all get out ok? Ongoing. Can't find any updates. Might be a long night for those stuck in precarious places.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 On 7/5/2017 at 7:32 PM, Carvers Gap said: Ongoing. Can't find any updates. Might be a long night for those stuck in precarious places.. They was talking about it on the news this morning.I was half a sleep still but they found one body that wasn't even from that party and no one knows who it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 11, 2017 Author Share Posted July 11, 2017 Well,it appears the Weeklies are forecasting the already present pattern change. High pressure is set to dominate from the northern Plains into the SE. Unseasonably dry and hot wx forecast for the next 46 days per the mean. Folks, summer is now here. Dog days on their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 Euro weeklies took a round-trip zig-zag from above normal temps back to mild for weeks 2-3 now/3-4 previous. Mid-range models favor AN temps through Day 15, and they are trending warmer, so I am skeptical of the week 2 mild attempt. Both weekly products Plains cool patch may be influenced by the Southwest Monsoon. Color me skeptical of the cool patch. Therefore I am also doubtful the Southeast gets that cool push as July flips to August. I know, pretty easy warm call with climo. All that said this year is a cakewalk compared to the heat last year. Next week dews might mix out in the afternoons; so, hotter highs may not feel worse. Could even feel slightly better than this disgustingly humid week. Bottom line: While I favor continued slight AN, I do not see a major heat wave for our region west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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