Spring 2017 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chambana]

9 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but would it not be unusual to have a hot summer when an El Nino is developing? Those summers tend to be cooler than average, or average at best. I think of the summers of 1976, 1992 and 1997, to name a few, although Mount Pinatubo likely played a role in making summer 1992 so cool. One exception would appear to be 2002, which had a cool  spring, but a hot summer.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure why they're throwing all chips in on a hot summer with a pending El Niño. If a moderate El Niño develops, look no further than 2009, cool summer. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

12 hours ago, Chambana said:

 

Yeah, I'm not sure why they're throwing all chips in on a hot summer with a pending El Niño. If a moderate El Niño develops, look no further than 2009, cool summer. 

Another example could be 2004. I believe an El Nino developed that year, with the summer being a bust in the east. That being said, I believe any warmth we did have that year was in May.

[snowlover2]

Just when you thought we might be done with accumulating snow, the GFS/NAM say not so fast my friend.

[Chambana]

If the euro ensembles are correct, the developing drought in Missouri and western/southern Illinois, as well as the southern US, the drought could take a big hit towards the end of the month, beginning of April. Potential wet pattern taking shape. 

[Chambana]

18 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Just when you thought we might be done with accumulating snow, the GFS/NAM say not so fast my friend.

I would be so ticked off if my biggest snowfall of the season occurred in late March, lol. It happened in 2013 on March 25th when CMI received 11.9". 

Dont see this panning out thankfully. 

[snowlover2]

3 hours ago, Chambana said:

I would be so ticked off if my biggest snowfall of the season occurred in late March, lol. It happened in 2013 on March 25th when CMI received 11.9". 

Dont see this panning out thankfully. 

Well looks like it all but disappeared now on the models.

[harrisale]

Nice.

[Powerball]

10 hours ago, harrisale said:

Nice.

Indeed.

[Chambana]

St. Louis broke the record of 83 set back in 2012, with a reading of 86. Now that's crazy. Considering it's just 2 hours south of me.

[bjc0303]

17 hours ago, harrisale said:

Nice.

Like like like like like 

[buckeye]

1 minute ago, bjc0303 said:

Like like like like like 

+ another like ...

let's do this!

[Indystorm]

Some of you here will remember met Tony Lyza.  Just read an article from TWC online about research Tony was doing from UAH on tornadoes and mountainous terrain in northern AL wrt formation, location, path, and intensity. Vortex Project is working in the southeastern U.S.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Some of you here will remember met Tony Lyza.  Just read an article from TWC online about research Tony was doing from UAH on tornadoes and mountainous terrain in northern AL wrt formation, location, path, and intensity. Vortex Project is working in the southeastern U.S.

Yeah, that is an interesting area of research. Somebody did something like that for Indiana a while back... after all, Indiana isn't flat everywhere.   Also looked at land cover, urban/rural boundaries etc for potential influences.

[Stebo]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, that is an interesting area of research. Somebody did something like that for Indiana a while back... after all, Indiana isn't flat everywhere.   Also looked at land cover, urban/rural boundaries etc for potential influences.

There is definitely something there with respect to topography. A couple of examples would be the Wichita mountains, southwest of OKC being the origin of several major tornado producing supercells. Locally topography played influence of many tornadic events near Flint with the Genesee Valley and the Irish Hills helping to locally enhance shear, not to mention that warm fronts tend to stall coming north due to Lake Huron.

[janetjanet998]

18 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Some of you here will remember met Tony Lyza.  Just read an article from TWC online about research Tony was doing from UAH on tornadoes and mountainous terrain in northern AL wrt formation, location, path, and intensity. Vortex Project is working in the southeastern U.S.

I was wondering what happened to tornadotony..interesting

 

 

[Chambana]

The pending El Niño event of 2017 is very interesting. Especially considering how warm regions 1+2 are relative to region 4, 3. 

 

Could we we start a enso 2017 thread? 

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Chambana said:

The pending El Niño event of 2017 is very interesting. Especially considering how warm regions 1+2 are relative to region 4, 3. 

 

Could we we start a enso 2017 thread? 

Go for it.

[nwohweather]

There is definitely something there with respect to topography. A couple of examples would be the Wichita mountains, southwest of OKC being the origin of several major tornado producing supercells. Locally topography played influence of many tornadic events near Flint with the Genesee Valley and the Irish Hills helping to locally enhance shear, not to mention that warm fronts tend to stall coming north due to Lake Huron.

Hit the hammer right on the head there. One of the major kickers for Metro Toledo tornado events is warm fronts stalling because of the lake here. Somebody needs to do a study on why Van Wert, Ohio gets so many though. It is mind boggling how many tornado Warnings that county gets a year

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

 

Hit the hammer right on the head there. One of the major kickers for Metro Toledo tornado events is warm fronts stalling because of the lake here. Somebody needs to do a study on why Van Wert, Ohio gets so many though. It is mind boggling how many tornado Warnings that county gets a year

 

The much higher activity in Van Wert county appears to be a more recent phenomenon, from the 1990s onward (especially in the 2000s).  There could be any number of reasons for that.  It's possible it just comes down to random nature of tornado occurrences and that activity decreases in that county in future decades.  

There are physical explanations that make sense in some cases, like what was mentioned with the Lakes and when topography results in locally backed or less veered low level winds/enhanced shear.

[nwohweather]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The much higher activity in Van Wert county appears to be a more recent phenomenon, from the 1990s onward (especially in the 2000s).  There could be any number of reasons for that.  It's possible it just comes down to random nature of tornado occurrences and that activity decreases in that county in future decades.  

There are physical explanations that make sense in some cases, like what was mentioned with the Lakes and when topography results in locally backed or less veered low level winds/enhanced shear.

 

Eh in my opinion it's probably great positioning. See when that warm front stalls or severe weather occurs it's typically the southern most cell in the area so it's able to absorb the most energy and take the best shape. This is what typically happens in our severe weather events, the border counties see severe cells at full strength with usually the southern most one being the best of the bunch. Then as they move east the setting of the sun and waning instability kills them around the Toledo area. 

Of course there are exceptions to this but generally it is a very safe bet to drive to Hillsdale, MI, Defiance or Van Wert and wait to chase

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, nwohweather said:

 

Eh in my opinion it's probably great positioning. See when that warm front stalls or severe weather occurs it's typically the southern most cell in the area so it's able to absorb the most energy and take the best shape. This is what typically happens in our severe weather events, the border counties see severe cells at full strength with usually the southern most one being the best of the bunch. Then as they move east the setting of the sun and waning instability kills them around the Toledo area. 

Of course there are exceptions to this but generally it is a very safe bet to drive to Hillsdale, MI, Defiance or Van Wert and wait to chase

Van Wert county didn't up and move, so why didn't the more favorable position in the state result in more tornadic activity in earlier decades?  6 tornadoes from 1950-1989 and almost 30 from 1990-present. Population likely doesn't explain it either as the population of Van Wert county has not increased a whole lot since 1950, and has actually been trending down lately.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS and Euro continue to have major differences over the next ten days.  The GFS has a consistent w/nw flow suppressing the next few bowling ball systems while the Euro continues to turn them up into the midwest with plenty of rain and other action.

[cyclone77]

^ Yeah the Euro has an impressive parade of wet storm systems.  

[janetjanet998]

an endless parade of slow moving systems means wet

the difference between the Euro and GFS has been night and day

looks like the GFS is giving in as far as the later week system and is now more north(more wet for us)

but check out the difference at 192 hours and 214

Euro has a 992 mb low around PAH and only moves it to NW IND in 24 hours

could someone get the total precip on the Euro for the entire run 12z run?

and how much falls with that almost stalled system 192-214 hours? I suspect heavy deformation zone rains on the NW side

 

[weatherbo]

19 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

an endless parade of slow moving systems means wet

the difference between the Euro and GFS has been night and day

looks like the GFS is giving in as far as the later week system and is now more north(more wet for us)

but check out the difference at 192 hours and 214

Euro has a 992 mb low around PAH and only moves it to NW IND in 24 hours

could someone get the total precip on the Euro for the entire run 12z run?

and how much falls with that almost stalled system 192-214 hours? I suspect heavy deformation zone rains on the NW side

 

[cyclone77]

Very impressive parade of storms on the new GFS this morning.  Storm after storm after storm.  Where was this pattern 2 months ago? Of course now that we want a cutter for some severe all of the storms are tracking further south lol.  Lots of cold rains on the way.  

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Very impressive parade of storms on the new GFS this morning.  Storm after storm after storm.  Where was this pattern 2 months ago? Of course now that we want a cutter for some severe all of the storms are tracking further south lol.  Lots of cold rains on the way.  

Generally speaking, should be favorable for severe weather in the warm sector of these systems as none of them wipe the moisture out to a great extent.  Hopefully we can get them farther north.

[Hoosier]

Well this is ugly.  And thankfully 12 days out.

[Stebo]

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well this is ugly.  And thankfully 12 days out.

0.0000001% chance of verifying, also will be gone in 6 hours from models.

[Indystorm]

My main concern as is usual this time of year is adequate moisture return.  Yes, it is nice to see a parade of systems, hopefully farther nw than currently modeled, for svr prospects, but I also would like to see a little more spacing between the waves so that deeper moisture can progress farther north.  Nevertheless this will be interesting to watch.